Wilmar

Discussion in 'Acquistion Targets' started by Exiga, Oct 10, 2011.


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  1. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    WilmarH&S Breakout

    Wilmar closed with a spinning top @ 3.50 (-0.04, -1.1%) on 26 Feb 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.57, immediate support @ 3.40, strong support @ 3.27.

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar says China crushers cut soy stocks before Brazil crop

    25 February 2013

    Soybean crushers in China, the biggest importer, are draining inventories as they expect prices to drop on Brazil’s record harvest, even as the country struggles with shipping delays, said Wilmar International.

    “We don’t carry excessive stocks of U.S. beans, which is more expensive,” Chief Executive Officer Kuok Khoon Hong said in a Feb. 22 interview, without giving figures. “Everybody is waiting for prices to fall,” he said, referring to processors in China. Wilmar is the country’s top cooking oil supplier.

    Prices in Chicago slumped 19% from a record in September as the crop in Brazil headed for a record, surpassing the drought-hit U.S. harvest. Protests by dock workers and a record backlog at Brazil’s ports raised concerns over delays and prompted crushers to buy U.S. supplies last week. Canceled contracts beat purchases in the week to Feb. 14, turning total net sales negative in the five-day period for the first time since 2010, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show.

    Deliveries of about 7 million metric tons are held up at ports in Brazil, pushing up prices in China, Kuok said in Singapore, where the company is based.

    Futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 1.2% to close at 4,797 yuan ($953) a ton today after advancing to 4,918 yuan on Feb. 22, the highest level since Nov. 7. On the Chicago Board of Trade, the most-active contract climbed 0.3% to US$14.48 ($17.92) a bushel, after a 2.1% advance last week. Prices reached an all-time high us$17.89 a bushel on Sept. 4.

    BRAZIL STRIKE

    Dock workers in Brazil held up loading on Feb. 22 at the Port of Santos in a protest over job security as they consider a strike that would disrupt shipments of everything from sugar to soybeans and corn. The country’s ports have 192 ships waiting to load 10.8 million tons of commodities, compared with 90 ships waiting to load 4.1 million tons a year earlier, researcher SA Commodities said Feb. 22. The country is set to by the biggest exporter this year.

    China bought 410,000 tons from the U.S., the USDA said Feb. 22. The purchases last week were driven by concerns over shipping disruptions in Brazil, researcher Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. said the same day.

    Cancellations beat new purchases of U.S. beans, pulling total net sales for the current and next marketing year to minus 57,526 tons in the week to Feb. 14 from 235,818 tons a week earlier, USDA data show. That’s the first time sales were negative in a week since March 2010, according the data.

    WAITING FOR BOTTOM

    “Chinese buyers are just waiting to see what the bottom will be,” said Tetsu Emori, a Tokyo-based commodity fund manager at Astmax Investment Management Inc., referring to prices. The delay wouldn’t cut total imports, he said. “As soon as prices decline, the Chinese will come in to buy.”

    Brazil shipped 23.9 million tons to China in calendar 2012, compared with almost 26 million tons delivered by the U.S., Chinese customs data showed. As of Feb. 14, about 1.76 million tons of U.S. beans sold to China remain to be shipped in the marketing year ending Aug. 31, down from 3.04 million tons a year earlier, USDA data show.

    China’s imports are forecast to advance to 62 million tons in the year through September from 59.2 million tons in 2011- 2012, the Hamburg, Germany-based industry researcher Oil World said in a report last month.

    Brazil’s harvest will surge 26 percent this year from 2011- 2012. The worst drought since the 1930s destroyed crops in the U.S., last year’s top producer and shipper. China’s share of global imports will reach 65 percent this year from 63.5% in 2011-2012, the USDA estimates.
     
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2013
  2. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Wilmar and Noble form palm focused strategic joint venture

    22 February 2013

    Noble Group Limited (“Noble”) and Wilmar International Limited (“Wilmar”) wish to announce the sale by Noble Resources Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Noble, of a 53.74% equity interest in Noble Plantations Pte Ltd (“JVCo”) to Newbloom Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Wilmar. The sale and purchase is subject to various regulatory approvals. On completion, JVCo will be 53.74% owned by Wilmar and 46.27% owned by Noble.

    Noble and Wilmar have agreed, through JVCo, to form a Papua focused, strategic joint venture in order to develop and operate palm projects to produce and sell crude palm oil and its by-products.

    JVCo presently owns a majority interest in PT Henrison Inti Persada, which in turn owns 22,953 Ha of land for palm production in Papua, Indonesia.

    In addition, through JVCo, the parties intend to jointly explore and develop further palm oil opportunities in the Papua region, to add to the existing portfolio.

    Kuok Khoon Hong, Chairman and CEO of Wilmar added, "We are very pleased to be entering into this joint venture with Noble. We look forward to partnering with them to continue the work to develop a world-class, sustainable plantation business in Papua, Indonesia."

    Noble Group CEO, Yusuf Alireza commented that, "We are delighted to be able to form this joint venture with Wilmar, a recognised global leader in Palm, allowing Noble to benefit from that expertise and to jointly build upon the initial platform that we have been developing over the last few years."
     
  3. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Wilmar 4Q Net Profit Falls 4.7% to S$476.8 Million

    By Martin Vaughan
    22 Feb 2013

    Wilmar International Ltd.'s net profit in the fourth quarter fell 4.7%, weighed by lower palm oil prices, the company said Friday.

    Fourth-quarter net profit was 476.8 million Singapore dollars (US$384 million), down from S$500.0 million recorded in the same period in 2011, the commodities grower and processor said in a statement.

    A decline in crude palm oil prices hit profits in the firm's plantations segment, which were down 23% compared to the previous year. Profits in most other segments grew, including an 8% increase in the sugar business.

    But the company struck an optimistic tone for the years ahead, citing demand for commodities from emerging markets.

    "Whilst uncertainties in the global economy remain, we are cautiously optimistic of our long term prospects due to good economic growth in our main markets of China, India and Indonesia and the robust business model we have built up over the years," said Wilmar Chairman and CEO Kuok Khoon Hong in the statement.

    Fourth-quarter revenue rose 0.9% on year to S$11.62 billion.
     
  4. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Plantation (UNDERWEIGHT) — Stubbornly high Jan-13 inventory

    14 February 2013

    Although Malaysia’s CPO inventory level for Jan-13 declined 2% MoM to 2.58m mt,
    it was still 28% higher YoY. The data also came in higher than the consensus
    estimate of 2.54m mt but is close to our estimate of 2.57m mt. CPO production
    remained strong in the month as it recorded a strong recovery from the tree stress
    effect. As a result, the month’s production declined only 10% MoM against the
    consensus estimate of a 15% decline. Meanwhile, exports remained weak at
    1.62m mt (-2% MoM) due to a decline in exports to China (-23% MoM to 268k mt)
    and India (-35% MoM to 172k mt). Looking forward, we believe that the stock
    level could decline a further 4% MoM to 2.48m mt in Feb-13 in line with the
    seasonal production decline. Despite declining inventory trend, we think that the
    inventory trend will not drop below 2.0m mt throughout 1QCY13 due to weak
    exports. On the overall, we view the latest inventory data negatively as sustained
    high stocks level should keep CPO prices upside limited. We reiterate an
    UNDERWEIGHT rating on the plantation sector given our strong conviction that
    4QCY12 earnings will be a major disappointment due to the extremely low average
    CPO price of RM2170/mt (-27% YoY and -24% QoQ) in the quarter. We are also
    maintaining our CY13-CY14 average CPO price forecasts of RM2,500/mtRM2,700/mt.
    We are keeping our UNDERPERFORM calls on SIME (TP: RM8.82),
    IOICORP (TP: RM4.34), KLK (TP: RM19.30), FGVH (TP: RM4.00), GENP (TP:
    RM7.60), IJMP (TP: RM2.60) and TAANN (TP: RM2.84) due to the low CPO price
    outlook. Our MARKET PERFORM calls are also retained on TSH (TP: RM2.00) and
    UMCCA (TP: RM6.70). Our only OUTPERFORM call is on PPB (TP: RM14.38) as we
    expect it to benefit from Wilmar’s earnings recovery due to the turnaround in its
    soybean crushing and palm oil downstream margins.


    Inventory declined 2% MoM to 2.58m mt but was still 28% higher YoY. The decline
    was within our estimate of 2.57m mt but was 2% higher than the consensus estimate of
    2.54m mt. The production level turned out to be stronger than expected as it declined only
    10% MoM to 1.60m mt against the consensus expectation of a 15% decline MoM to 1.51m mt.
    This could be caused by a stronger than expected recovery from the tree stress effect, which
    ended about 5 months ago. Meanwhile, exports remained weak at 1.62m mt (-2% MoM) due
    to a decline in exports to China (-23% MoM to 268k mt) and India (-35% MoM to 172k mt).
    On the overall, we view the data negatively as the high inventory level should keep CPO prices
    at current depressed levels for an extended period.

    Stocks may decline 4% to 2.48m mt but to stay above 2.0m mt throughout
    1QCY13.
    The key reason for the falling stock level is the expected production decline of 8%
    MoM to 1.47m mt in Feb due to the seasonal factor. While we also expect lower exports at
    1.54m mt, the decline rate of 4% MoM is likely to be less severe as compared to the
    production decline of 8% MoM. As the northern hemisphere will still be in the winter season in
    Feb, palm oil usage should remain low. Despite the declining inventory trend, we think that the
    Malaysian inventory level will not drop below 2.0m mt throughout 1QCY13 due to the weak
    exports. This should keep CPO prices staying below RM3000/mt in 1QCY13.

    A strong El Niño is unlikely in the near term because the Southern Oscillation Index
    (SOI) is currently at a neutral level. The latest SOI reading of negative 7.5 (as of 10 Feb) is
    still at a neutral level. Note that SOI readings ranging from negative 8 to +8 indicate neutral
    ENSO levels (no El Nino or La Nina). Together with the absence of weather disruptions in
    2011 and 2012, CPO supply should thus be good this year. This means there will be little
    excitement for CPO prices.

    Reiterate UNDERWEIGHT, major earnings disappointment soon. We reiterate our view
    that planters’ earnings are poised to dive at least 30% YoY and 20% QoQ when their financial
    results are announced by end Feb-2013. This should be in line with 4QCY12 average CPO
    price, which had tumbled 27% YoY and 24% QoQ. We believe planters’ 4QCY12 earnings will
    likely fall by at least the same magnitude as CPO prices tend to have a very significant impact
    on their earnings historically. Since we think that the consensus have yet to reflect this in their
    earnings forecasts, another round of deeper consensus earnings cut is likely ahead.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  5. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Phillip downgrades Wilmar to Neutral, ups target price

    07 January 2013

    Phillip Securities downgrades Wilmar (F34.SG) to Neutral from Accumulate as the stock’s recent gains suggest limited upside. “Based on our estimates, Wilmar is trading at an estimated FY13E P/E of 14.5x, which is in line with its five-year average of 14.4x.”

    The house raises its target to $3.70 from $3.47, based on 14.0x PER blended with DCF from the previous 13.0x FY13 PER.

    Phillip expects CPO prices to continue gaining strength in 1Q13 before fading gradually heading into 2Q13 amid seasonally weak CPO demand, stronger CPO supply production in both Malaysia and Indonesia and the record high palm-oil stockpile at 2013’s start.

    But while Wilmar’s revenue may fall, it doesn’t expect lower edible-oil prices to have much of a negative impact on the company as it is a significant downstream player, which may benefit from the lower feedstock prices. Wilmar is up 0.3% at $3.60.
     
  6. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    WilmarSauce formation

    Wilmar closed with a white marubou @ 3.53 (+0.19, +5.7%) on 2 Jan 2013.

    Immediate support @ 3.30, immediate resistance @ 3.60.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Wilmar International Ltd has redeemed in full the outstanding US$571 million bonds due December 18, 2012.

    US$600,000,000 Aggregate Principal Amount
    of Convertible Bonds due 2012 issued by Wilmar International Limited
    on 18 December 2007 (the “Wilmar Bonds”)
    ISIN: XS0334272712
    ANNOUNCEMENT
    FULL REDEMPTION OF OUTSTANDING WILMAR BONDS
    DUE ON 18 DECEMBER 2012​


    Wilmar International Limited (“Wilmar” or the “Company”) wishes to refer to the Company’s
    Notice to Bondholders dated 30 October 2012 in relation to the redemption of the outstanding
    principal amount of Wilmar Bonds (other than those which have been previously converted or
    purchased and cancelled) together with the payment of accrued interest due on these Wilmar
    Bonds on 18 December 2012.

    The Company wishes to inform that the outstanding principal amount of Wilmar Bonds of
    US$571,000,000, which matured on 18 December 2012, has been fully redeemed and the
    accrued interest of 17.78 per cent of the outstanding principal amount has been paid on the
    same day.
    There are no outstanding Wilmar Bonds following the abovementioned redemption made by
    the Company and they will be delisted from the official list of the SGX-ST on 20 December
    2012.


    Issued by
    Wilmar International Limited
    19 December 2012
     
  8. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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  9. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    WilmarA downward stair-step decline

    Wilmar closed with a dark cloud cover @ 3.23 (-0.05, -1.5%) on 21 Dec 2012.

    Strong support @ 3.00, strong resistance @ 3.30.

    A -ve rectangle breakout below 3.00 convincingly is an outright sell.

    A +ve rectangle breakout above 3.30 convincingly is a bullish confirmation to buy.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    I have this strong gut feeling that Wilmar is also one of the big short-sellers targets.

    I've been bearish on commodities stocks, especially Wilmar. Based on TA, I saw aggressive selling pressure on Wilmar after CNY 2012, when it couldn't break its long-term horizontal resistance @ 6.00, ref Wilmar's monthly chart. After the strong long-term horizontal support @ 5.00 was broken, I posted the Bear Flag chart TP 4.38 dated 5 Apr 2012 in TPG forum. My super bearish view on Wilmar is primarily due to the persistent aggressive selling pressure despite the company's share buy-back, ref insiders trades dated 5 Apr to 16 Nov 2012. I repeated that Wilmar is an outright sell if the long-term horizontal support @ $3 is taken out convincingly with exceptional high volume but I never mention that there would be a short-term trend reversal if the $3 is not taken out. Wilmar has a book value of S$2.40/share as at end-Jun 2012; according to CS's review dated 3 Oct 2012, the EPS at various palm oil prices for Wilmar is as follows:

    [​IMG]
    Wilmar's company share-buy-backInsiders Trades from 5 Apr to 16 Nov 2012:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    As at 9 Nov 2012

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar's chart; Bear Flag TP 4.38 dated 5 Apr 2012

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar International — 2006 to 9 Nov 2012

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2012
  11. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Wilmar - Critical support @ 3.00 once broken, Wilmar is an outright SELL

    Wilmar closed unchanged with a black marubozu @ 3.19 on 30 Nov 2012.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  12. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Wilmar vs ChinaFish

    Wilmar - Critical support @ 3.00 once broken, Wilmar is an outright SELL

    Wilmar closed unchanged with a doji @ 3.15 on 28 Nov 2012.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    ChinaFish - Bear Flag Breakout; Interim TP 0.53

    ChinaFish closed unchanged with a doji @ 0.57 on 28 Nov 2012.

    Immediate resistance @ 0.58, long term horizontal support @ 0.43.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2012
  13. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    willy8,

    I've been bearish on commodities stocks, especially Wilmar. Based on TA, I saw aggressive selling pressure on Wilmar after CNY 2012, when it couldn't break its long-term horizontal resistance @ 6.00, ref Wilmar's monthly chart. After the strong long-term horizontal support @ 5.00 was broken, I posted the Bear Flag chart TP 4.38 dated 5 Apr 2012 in TPG forum. My super bearish view on Wilmar is primarily due to the persistent aggressive selling pressure despite the company's share buy-back, ref insiders trades dated 5 Apr to 16 Nov 2012. I repeated that Wilmar is an outright sell if the long-term horizontal support @ $3 is taken out convincingly with exceptional high volume but I never mention that there would be a short-term trend reversal if the $3 is not taken out. Wilmar has a book value of S$2.40/share as at end-Jun 2012; according to CS's review dated 3 Oct 2012, the EPS at various palm oil prices for Wilmar is as follows:

    [​IMG]
    Wilmar's company share-buy-backInsiders Trades from 5 Apr to 16 Nov 2012:

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2012
  14. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Changes in China

    WRITTEN BY KANG WAN CHERN
    SATURDAY, 10 NOVEMBER 2012 10:01

    EVEN AS CHINESE President Hu Jintao prepares to step down as General Secretary of the Communist Party in China and hand over the reins to his designated successor Xi Jinping in a once-in-decade power transfer next week, he has vowed to spearhead further economic reform and social development.

    In a voluminous report delivered at the 18th Communist Party congress on Nov 8, Hu promised to double China’s 2010 GDP and per capita income for both urban and rural residents by 2020. This is slightly different from the previous Party congress when Hu said nominal GDP of China in 2020 should be quadrupled from that of 2000. It is also the first inclusion of a per capita income growth target in the Party's ruling history, underlining the Party's commitment to sharing more benefits of economic development with the ordinary people, notes HSBC.

    Hu’s growth target implies an annual growth rate of about 7% in China’s real GDP, in line with the country’s 12th five-year plan. It also translates to growth about 7% in per capita income over the next 10 years under incumbent President Xi’s rule. In comparison, China’s rural and urban resident income has increased by more than 9% on average in the past few years, according to HSBC.

    Importantly, the move to improve the country’s economy comes alongside promises to implement a host of other social, political and environmental changes. It also comes on the back of a positive set of inflation data released Nov 9, underscored by a 1.7% yoy rise in October’s Consumer Price Index. Meanwhile, producer prices eased to a pace of 2.8% yoy in October compared to a drop of 3.6% in September, driven by higher raw material prices. “The combination of lower CPI and recovering PPI growth implies benign inflationary pressures amidst a gradual growth recovery,” notes HSBC. “This leaves room for Beijing to maintain an easing bias to consolidate China's growth recovery, given continued external headwinds especially with the US’ looming fiscal cliff.”

    The relatively low-key transition of power in China coincides with President Barrack Obama’s win in the fiercely contested US elections which has led to a slide in global bourses on fears of a looming fiscal cliff, that is, tax increases and spending cuts that will automatically take effect in the US next year should the country’s politicians fail to reach a compromise on reducing the budget deficit. The market’s concerns were also felt in Singapore, where the Straits Times Index weakened during the week even as earnings season gathered momentum in the city-state.

    Among the latest to announce its corporate earnings is Wilmar International, which reported a dismal set of results for the nine months Sept 30, 2012 on Nov 9. During the period, the commodity trade and supply chain manager saw earnings drop by about a third yoy to hit US$778.7 million ($953 million) on the back of a 2% yoy rise in revenue to US$33.8 billion, owing to the poor performance of its oilseeds and grains and plantations and palm oil mills arms, which were down on poor crushing margins and lower production yield, respectively. However, Wilmar fared better during the July-September quarter with most of its key segments reporting higher profits during the period.

    Wilmar’s results came a day after Noble Group recorded a 17% yoy rise in earnings to US$380 million on the back of a 15% rise in revenue to US$69.8 billion over the same period. On a quarterly basis, Noble managed to reverse losses amounting to US$17.5 million in 3Q2011 to earnings of US$75.2 million in 3Q2012. However, the company’s improved performance failed to impress some analysts, who noted that its results came in below expectations.

    “What surprised us this quarter was the agriculture division’s poor showing,” writes Lee Wen Ching of CIMB. “Despite new sugar assets and the peak harvesting season, agriculture revenue fell 34% yoy and 10% qoq, which management blamed on poor China crush margins and volatile corn and soybean prices. [Meanwhile], higher depreciation from the new sugar mills further dampened profit margins.” As such, Lee has cut her earnings forecast for Noble and slashed her target valuation on the stock to $1.45 over the next 12 months from $1.61 before. She expects shares of Noble to weaken over the near term, but is maintaining her outperform rating on stock.
     
  15. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Wilmar's earnings plunge 29% to US$778.7m

    Fri, Nov 9, 2012 8:59 AM SGT

    Sour gains, measly revenue growth.

    According to a release, Wilmar International Limited, Asia’s leading agribusiness group, posted a 26% increase in net profit to US$405.8 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2012.

    Most key segments reported higher profits during the quarter with the exception of Oilseeds & Grains and Plantations & Palm Oil Mills. Despite the lower profit in Oilseeds & Grains compared to 3Q2011, the segment recorded its first quarterly profit for the year, reducing the losses in the first half of 2012.

    Revenue was down 6% to US$12.35 billion in 3Q2012 mainly due to lower palm prices for Palm & Laurics.

    The Group’s net profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2012 (“9M2012”) declined 29% to US$778.7 million while revenue increased 2% to US$33.84 billion.

    Excluding non-operating items, net profit was US$388.0 million in 3Q2012 and US$766.0 million in 9M2012, compared to US$451.4 million in 3Q2011 and US$1.30
    billion in 9M2011.

    The non-operating items comprise foreign exchange differences from intercompany loans to subsidiaries, gains or losses from investment securities, fair value changes on embedded derivatives of the Group’s convertible bonds, interest expense on borrowings which are directly attributable to the funding of the Sucrogen acquisition and an accounting profit within the Sugar segment relating to pre-acquisition hedging reserves.
     
  16. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Mika,

    I've been super bearish on Wilmar after the breakout closing @ 5.18 with exceptional high vol. done at 82.04m shares on 22 Feb 2012, ref below — Wilmar's chart; Bear Flag TP 4.38 dated 5 Apr 2012.

    Earlier, I posted the Bear Flag chart TP 4.38 dated 5 Apr 2012 in TPG forum when the huge housefly was hard-selling "Wilmar @ 5.00 BUY" due to strong support-buy from the filthy-rich Tycoon Kuok's family and the company's share-buy-back then, this is a follow-up of my super bearish long-term view on Wilmar.

    I re-post the old Wilmar chart dated 5 Apr 2012 in sniper-academy forum just to emphasize that based on TA, descending triangle (continuation), ref latest update below — Wilmar (weekly) chart dated 9 Nov 2012; the downside is more than the upside.

    The current trading range of Wilmar is bet. 3.00 to 3.30 after the breakout closing @ 3.28 with exceptional high vol. done at 37.9m shares on 27 July 2012. Only if it could break above 3.30 (short-term bullish trend reversal), else Wilmar is an outright SELL once the long-term horizontal support @ 3.00 is convincingly broken with high volume.

    Wilmar's long-term downtrend is firmly intact, ref latest update below — Wilmar's 7-years chart; 2006 to 9 Nov 2012, it's trading below the 100d, 200d and 400d SMA.

    升势莫估顶,跌势莫估底。

    English Translation: Long-term wise, strong stock remains strong, weak stock remains weak; take action (buy/sell) only when the major trend reversal happens.

    As at 9 Nov 2012, analysts' reviews on Wilmar

    1. CIMB — Hold; TP 3.32
    2. Am Fraser — Hold; TP 3.70
    3. OCBCUpgrade from Hold to BUY TP 3.52

    OCBC's review on Wilmar; upgrade from hold to BUY TP S$3.52, 9 Nov 2012

    UPGRADE TO BUY WITH S$3.52 FV
    • QoQ recovery seen in 3Q12
    • Issues remain but less challenging
    • Upgrade to BUY, S$3.52 FV


    Stronger 3Q12 showing
    Wilmar International Limited (WIL) reported a stronger set of 3Q12
    results, with reported net profit jumping 26% YoY to US$405.8m,
    even though revenue slipped 6% to US$12.3b, aided by better
    performance at most key segments (except for Oilseeds & Grains and
    Plantations & Palm Oil Mills). Excluding non-operating items, net profit
    came in around US$388.0m, from US$451.4m a year ago. 9M12
    revenue inched up 2% to US$33.8b, meeting 73% of our full-year
    estimate, while reported net profit fell 29% to US$778.7m; core net
    profit fell 41% to US$766.0m, or 80% of our FY12 estimate.

    Good QoQ recovery in 3Q12
    More importantly, we note that WIL has also been able to show
    decent QoQ improvements, with 3Q12 revenue rebounding 12% and
    earnings 246% (core net profit +125%), as most of its business
    segments did better compared to 2Q12. Sugar milling revenue surged
    353% QoQ; but this was expected due to seasonality. Otherwise,
    Consumer products put in a very good showing after revenue increase
    50% QoQ, while PBT/MT also improved 84% from the previous
    quarter. Oilseeds & Grains division was profitable again, after two
    quarters of losses, despite still challenging crushing environment in
    China. While Palm & Laurics saw 4% drop in revenue, it managed to
    score a 9% rise in PBT/MT.

    Upbeat on long-term prospects
    Nevertheless, WIL notes that near-term challenges remain, although
    not as bad as before. Management also maintains its positive longterm
    outlook, citing good economic growth in its key markets like
    China, India and Indonesia. It also sees growth in new projects it had
    developed over the years such as oleochemicals, rice and flour milling.
    We are raising our FY12 earnings forecast by 4%; but we opt to leave
    our FY13 estimates unchanged as we are already looking at a nice
    30% recovery in core earnings. We are also upgrading it from Hold to
    BUY with a higher S$3.52 fair value, as we push out our 13.5x peg to
    FY13F EPS from blended previously.

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar - Critical support @ 3.00 once broken, Wilmar is an outright SELL

    Wilmar closed with a spinning top @ 3.17 (+0.05, +1.6%) on 9 Nov 2012.

    CPO Ends at 1-Month Low on EU, US Concerns, Rising Stocks

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    As at 9 Nov 2012

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    Wilmar's chart; Bear Flag TP 4.38 dated 5 Apr 2012

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    Wilmar International — 2006 to 9 Nov 2012

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  17. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    The remark has been there since the day I joined sniper-academy forum.

    Waaaaa........you've fallen asleep for a solid two (2) months! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2012
  18. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Wilmar - Critical support @ 3.00 once broken, Wilmar is an outright SELL

    Wilmar closed with a spinning top @ 3.17 (+0.05, +1.6%) on 9 Nov 2012.

    CPO Ends at 1-Month Low on EU, US Concerns, Rising Stocks

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2012
  19. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Slumping CPO price hurting income

    By FINTAN NG
    Saturday October 13, 2012

    THE steady drop in the price of crude palm oil (CPO) this year is already eroding the incomes of households relying on the crop. And there is no telling when prices will start to rise again to a level which producers are comfortable with, generally considered to be around the RM2,800 per tonne level.

    The price of CPO has fallen nearly 42% (as of Thursday’s close) from its peak on March 3, 2008, when it hit RM4,330 per tonne.

    The three-month forward benchmark price is likely to fall further following the release of data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) on Wednesday, which showed palm oil stocks jumping 16.29% year-on-year to an all-time high of 2.48 million tonnes, considerably higher than market expectations.

    There are reasons to be concerned as slowing global economic growth, coupled with a drop in demand and improving yields, puts further pressure on prices by increasing inventory levels. This is inspite of analysts believing prices will rebound towards year-end on demand pick-up and lower production.

    Capping the upside

    Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd analyst Alan Lim says in a report before the release of the MPOB statistics that any upside to prices could be capped if the inventory level turns out to be higher than expected, notwithstanding the collaboration between Malaysia and Indonesia in seeking ways to prevent further declines in CPO prices.

    Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd analyst Barnabas Gan says a late or mild El Nino in Asia may depress prices further. “This suggests that production may remain high amid ballooning inventories and poor global demand, pointing to weak CPO prices for the year,” he says.

    According to a Reuters report, Indonesia and Malaysia account for 40 million tonnes, or 87%, of global palm oil supplies. Besides inventory levels, other factors such as weather patterns and the price discounts between CPO and soybean oil as well as crude oil will play a part in setting prices.

    But analysts argue that prospects look brighter as prices seem to have stabilised even with the surge in palm oil stocks. OSK Investment Bank Bhd analyst Alvin Tai says in another report that the worst may be over.

    “Palm oil price is now almost on par with crude oil, which rarely happens, suggesting that the recent slide was excessive. There could still be downside surprises from the unwinding of soybean’s speculative long positions, which are still on the high side,” Tai says.

    And according to CIMB Investment Bank Bhd analyst Ivy Ng, the consensus among planters during a recent meeting is that the CPO price drop “is both unexpected and excessive”.

    She says the reasons that they have given for the price drop include cyclically high production and speculation in the market.

    An industry observer tells StarBizWeek that the speculative activities are given a boost when stakeholders focus more on futures prices by speculating publicly during industry forums on where prices are headed instead of concentrating on industry issues.

    “There are certain palm oil analysts who like to speculate on prices at international forums, thereby making prices fluctuate,” he says.

    Meanwhile, Ng says prices could be range-bound in the next one to two months as some buyers may hold back purchases while concerns about potential defaults by some customers may weigh on near-term CPO prices.

    Deferment of deliveries

    She says Sime Darby Bhd notes that some customers are asking for potential deferment of deliveries although the company has not seen any default from them following the sharp fall in price.

    “We are likely to review our CPO price assumptions in the coming weeks, which could lead to a revision of around RM100 to RM200 per tonne, to account for the recent drop in CPO price,” Ng adds.

    She says prices may be supported by palm oil inventories in Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, which planters reckon is not excessive unlike in 2008 when inventories were stored on barges due to extremely low demand.

    Plantation companies are not the only ones who are affected when commodity prices slump. Based on data from various Government sources and the Federal Land Development Authority (Felda), the average monthly income of a Felda settler fell by a quarter to RM2,457 in 2009 compared to 2008.

    The CPO benchmark forward price plunged 67.90% from its peak on March 3 to RM1,390 per tonne on Oct 24, 2008, trading below RM2,000 into the first quarter of 2009 and remained under pressure throughout that year before starting to rise above RM3,000 from October 2010 onwards.

    Smallholders (those owning or farming below 100 hectares outside of Felda estates) were also affected, seeing their average monthly incomes drop by nearly 14% to RM944.

    According to various estimates, smallholders farm account for about 40% of the 4.90 million hectares of oil palm planted area in the country while Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd has some 355,864 hectares of plantation land, most of which is given to the cultivation of oil palm, with some of the land used for the cultivation of rubber.

    In total, data from Government sources show an estimated 603,786 people were employed in local oil palm plantations in 2010 out of about 11.50 million workers.

    For Indonesia, CIMB’s Ng says based on data provided by the Indonesia Palm Oil Commission, the industry creates around 12 million employment opportunities, producing around 22.4 million tonnes of CPO in 2011 while consuming more than six million tonnes domestically.

    Economic outlook

    Recent reports by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund paint a gloomy picture for the global economy. Economists in both multilateral institutions have cut the forecast for growth in most parts of the world.

    For exports-reliant economies in Asia, the slump in demand from the developed markets was at first countered with an increase in intra-regional trade (for example, between Asean and China) and in measures boosting domestic demand.

    However, the volatility of the past five years, together with the US economy’s tepid growth and the prolonged eurozone crisis, is beginning to affect the prospects of Asia, with leading indicators showing that growth is slowing, even on the domestic front, as China’s purchasing managers index (PMI) for services show.

    China’s and to a certain extent, India’s slowdown, has affected exports of palm oil. Malaysia’s August exports declined 4.5% year-on-year to RM56bil, with exports of palm oil dropping 27.7% due to both a decrease in exports volume (down 24%) and average unit value (a decline of 4.8%).

    Even exports of natural rubber has not been spared, falling 45.9% year-on-year to RM503.6mil due to a decline in both average unit value (a drop of 30.3%) and exports volume (down 22.4%).

    Emerging Asia

    Alliance Investment Bank Bhd chief economist Manokaran Mottain says palm oil exports are to a large extent dependent on Chinese and Indian consumers. “CPO prices are largely dependent on recovery in emerging Asia since much of the commodity is exported to these countries,” he says.

    According to plantation analysts at Alliance Investment, CPO price is likely to range between RM2,400 and RM2,800 in the fourth quarter and will continue to trade below RM3,000 next year.

    Manokaran says that in the wider sense, exports will continue to have a difficult time as leading indicators such as manufacturing PMIs and factory output has showed.

    “In Malaysia’s case, depressed external demand for electrical and electronic products will continue to impact exports negatively, recovery will depend largely on the G7 economies,” he says. The G7 groups together the economies of the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada.

    Manokaran says as long as there are no capital investments, the momentum for recovery among the G7 economies will be weak. “It’s a tough situation since it will take time for investments to kick in and trickle down,” he says.
     
  20. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    VEGOILS-Palm oil rises to one-week high, stocks may weigh

    Wilmar +3.9%; Malaysia CPO-export tax eyed

    WRITTEN BY DOW JONES & CO, INC
    FRIDAY, 12 OCTOBER 2012 16:54

    Wilmar is up 3.9% at $3.18 as players await further details from the Malaysian government on a CPO export-tax cut. "It's one of the better companies in terms of having feet in both Indonesia and Malaysia and (being) able to trade around any opportunities from that" on the potential tax change, an analyst says.

    He adds, the slightly improved soybean supply-side numbers from the U.S. were also positive for the stock as soybean availability is key for Wilmar. He notes the stock is starting from an overly depressed position and a number of players are "relooking" it after its selloff.

    In a note, DBS Vickers says Wilmar and Mewah will be the main beneficiaries of a bigger change in the export tax. The stock remains down around 36% year-to-date.
     
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