Wilmar

Discussion in 'Acquistion Targets' started by Exiga, Oct 10, 2011.


Draft saved Draft deleted
  1. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Wilmar is a strong downtrend stock; it has a stair-step decline chart pattern.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  2. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
  3. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Big Commodity Traders Pocketed $250 Billion Profit

    [video=youtube;YNp8YAIDF5U]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNp8YAIDF5U[/video]

    Trading houses take record sugar delivery

    By Emiko Terazono in London
    May 1, 2013 6:08 pm

    Cargill, Wilmar and Bunge, three leading commodities trading houses, have taken delivery of the biggest amount of sugar on record from the main futures exchange for the sweetener.

    The record delivery of 1.4m tonnes of sugar – almost equal to the annual consumption of Malaysia, one of the world’s top 10 sugar importers – comes as the trading industry attempts to balance growing supplies from Brazil with strong demand in Asia and the Middle East. The previous delivery record was set at 1.3m tonnes of sugar in 2009.

    “The largest delivery in the history of the exchange coincides with a record Brazilian crop,” said Michael McDougall of commodities brokers Newedge in New York.

    Commodities trading houses usually deal the sweetener in private, but the futures exchange is increasingly becoming a key channel for trading physical sugar. The companies taking delivery held their long futures positions until the expiry of the contracts, hence accepting physical sugar.

    The companies delivering against the ICE May sugar contract, Noble Group, Louis Dreyfus Commodities and Sucres & Denrées held short positions until expiry, according to brokers.

    “The market has been surprised how much sugar was delivered,” said Jonathan Kingsman of sugar consultancy Kingsman in Lausanne.

    According to the IntercontinentalExchange, home of the raw sugar benchmark, 28,210 lots or 1.4m tonnes of the sweetener was delivered against the May contract. The number was the highest since records started in 1989 and beat the figure seen in 2009, where 26,783 lots, or 1.3m tonnes were delivered against the July contract.

    The delivery comes as demand in Asia remains strong and as record crops in Brazil have depressed prices. With the ICE July benchmark trading at 17.35 cents a pound, receivers of the physical delivery were betting on demand from Asia and the Middle East remaining firm.

    Analysts said that China was expected to continue to take advantage of the low prices to build up its strategic reserves while speculation that Indonesia, one of the world’s leading importers of sugar, was raising its import tariffs for the sweetener in July also spurred long positions.

    However, the high level of supplies matching demand, contrary to earlier expectations, was a bearish sign, said traders. Availability of Brazilian sugar was not expected to be high despite the bumper harvest due to bad weather earlier in the month, which delayed the harvest and the crushing, as well as congestion in the ports. Traders said the May delivery pointed to larger supplies for later in the year.

    Performance Chart — Commodity as at 2 May 2013.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    simplemind,

    I agree with nottibird's analysis on Wilmar & SembMar as both stocks have weakened with prices trading at LH & LL, i.e. SHORT is preferred than LONG.

    For these 2 stocks, counter trend has higher risks hence a tight stop-loss is important and necessary.

    On 10 Apr & 16 Apr 2013, I posted that SMM could have a possible technical rebound/short-term trend reversal.

    Had SembMar spiked and hit 4.38 and/or closed above 4.38 to 4.41 with high volume on 17 Apr, a long white marubozu would have formed a bullish morning star pattern confirming a potential short-term trend reversal/dead cat bounce.

    However, the EOD closing on 17 Apr had formed a bearish harami instead of a bullish morning star confirming that the strong pro-longed bearish downtrend prevails.

    SembMarBear flag cum bearish bollinger bands breakout; interim TP 4.13, next TP 4.09

    SembMar closed with a spinning top @ 4.25 (+0.03, +0.7%) on 19 Apr 2013.

    Immediate resistance 4.30, iImmediate support @ 4.20.

    [​IMG]

    WilmarSymmetrical Triangle Breakout

    Wilmar closed with a spinning top @ 3.34 (+0.06, +1.8%) on 19 Apr 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.35 immediate support @ 3.27, next support @ 3.20, strong support @ 3.00.

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2013
  5. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    WilmarH&S Breakout; TP 3.27

    Wilmar closed with a black marubozu @ 3.28 (-0.02, -0.6%) on 18 Apr 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.35 immediate support @ 3.27, strong support @ 3.21.

    [​IMG]

    MAS takes action against man for insider trading

    Thursday, Apr 18, 2013

    SINGAPORE - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has taken civil penalty enforcement action against Mr Ang Kok Min for insider trading under Section 219(2)(a) of the Securities and Futures Act (SFA).

    On August 13, 2010, Wilmar International Limited (Wilmar) announced its intention to purchase 20 per cent of the share capital of Kencana Agri Limited (Kencana), a company listed on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Ltd (SGX-ST), at $0.35 per share.

    After the release of the announcement, Kencana's share price closed at $0.385, a 10 percentage increase over the preceding day's closing price of $0.35.

    Before the announcement, Mr Ang, a senior trading manager at Wilmar at that time, had attended a meeting during which it was agreed that the investment by Wilmar into Kencana would be at an indicative price of $0.35 per Kencana share.

    Whilst in possession of the non-public price-sensitive information concerning Wilmar's intention to invest in Kencana, Mr Ang bought 50,000 Kencana shares on July 23, 2010, and another 50,000 Kencana shares on August 2, 2010.

    As a result of his purchases, Mr Ang made a profit of approximately $6,200.

    Mr Ang has admitted to contravening Section 219(2)(a) of the SFA and has paid MAS a civil penalty of $50,000, without any court action.

    The matter was referred to MAS by SGX-ST.

     
  6. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    DBSV's review on Wilmar on 8 Apr 2013;

    HOLD 12 months TP S$3.72 (Prev S$ 3.88)


    By Ben Santoso

    Near term downside risks

    • We continue to monitor the mass culling of poultry
      flocks in China; no significant impact on soybean
      crush margins thus far
    • But we expect 1Q13 Palm & Lauric pretax to drop
      q-o-q on weaker Indonesian refining margins
    • Cut FY13F/14F/15F earnings by 8%/8%/4% after
      imputing lower palm oil refining margins
    • Maintain HOLD call; no major near term re-rating
      catalyst
    Potential impact of bird flu in China. We learned over the
    weekend that authorities in Hangzhou and Nanjing have
    suspended live poultry trades, making them the second and
    third cities after Shanghai to take action to curb the spread
    of the H7N9 virus which had caused six deaths last week.
    According to media reports, Shanghai culled c.20k birds on
    Friday. The culling has remained insignificant so far, but an
    escalation may cut soybean meal demand/prices, and in
    turn, crush margins in China.

    Weakening palm oil refining margins. Elsewhere, we
    estimate Indonesian palm oil gross refining margins have
    now dropped to US$45/MT from US$77 in Dec12, while
    Malaysian margin are flat at US$48. Although we are
    projecting only US$31-33/MT pretax margins, there is
    downside risk if we impute trade barrier costs (i.e. Indian
    import tax).

    Cut FY13F/14F/15F earnings. Our initial margin
    assumptions were aggressive; we now cut Palm & Lauric
    pretax margins to US$26-27/MT after imputing higher trade
    costs. We are keeping FY13F Oilseeds & Grains pretax
    margin of US$3/MT, but cut next year’s margin to US$5
    from US$6. These reduced our DCF-derived TP to US$3.72
    (WACC 6.6%, ERP 8.7%, Beta 1.1, TG 3%).

    HOLD for 9.7% upside to revised TP. Despite near-term
    challenges, Wilmar’s long term growth outlook is intact, led
    by recovering CPO prices, expansion in branded consumer,
    sugar origination and investments in Africa.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    That was how my close friend Ka Ka HOOT at Wilmar using CFD.

    He longed 500 lots Wilmar @ 3.30/sh = S$165,000 (max. financing for Wilmar @ 90%)
    He sold 500 lots Wilmar @ 3.50/sh, profit @ 0.20/sh = S$100,000 (excluding commission)

    [​IMG]

    Super Rich The Greed Game

    [video=youtube;suZb9Z0b05I]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suZb9Z0b05I[/video]

     
  8. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    For weak stocks trading in a downward sloping channel; rounding bottom has more upside than rounding top:

    1. SMRT (weekly) chart pattern, rounding top, if support @ 1.53 breaks; TP 1.335.

    2. Wilmar (weekly) chart pattern, rounding bottom + a handle = C&H formation, if resistance @ 3.92 breaks; TP 4.85.

    SMRT (weekly)Trading in a downward sloping channel

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar (weekly) 25 Feb 2013

    [​IMG]

    [video=youtube;GTmnN4u4Y5k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTmnN4u4Y5k[/video]

    圆形顶/圆形底 (Rounding Top / Rounding Bottom)

    圆形顶,即碟形顶(saucer top),属于转向形态,显示大跌市即将来临,后市跌势将会很大。

    顾名思义,圆形顶的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在顶部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形顶见顶形态 ,投资者宜尽快沽货离场,以免所持股份变成“蟹货”。

    圆形顶的形成,是股价经过一段升势后,升势开始放缓,每次新高位较上一个高位距离不远。由于升 势放缓,部分 先知先觉的投资者便撤退离场,令卖方力量增加。淡友先在圆形顶部与好友势力对抗,其后在好友数 目逐步减少下 ,淡友就得以渐渐控制局面。股价遂持续下滑,直至淡友全面控制局面后,市场需求转为供过于求, 跌势才会较急 。由于形成过程稍长,有时需数月始完成圆形顶。

    个别情况下,即使圆形顶形成,股价也不会实时急跌,仅会反复徘徊,横行发展,这徘徊区称为“碟 柄”或“碗柄 ” 。但由于跌势已成,该“碟柄”或“碗柄”一般很快便被突破,股价会转而向下,朝预期中的下跌趋 势而行。

    圆形底,又称碟形底(saucer bottom),属于见底形态,显示跌势已逆转,大升市即将来临,后市升势可以很大。其走势及趋向,与圆形 顶刚好相反。

    顾名思义,圆形底的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在底部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形底见底形态 ,投资者宜待圆形底升势转急初期,才追买股票。

    圆形底的形成过程如下:当股价经过一段跌势后,跌势开始放缓,沽售(或沽空)股票的成交量开始 减少。每次新 低位较上一个低位距离不远。由于跌势放缓,部分先知先觉者开始趁低吸纳,收集手法普遍是有耐性 地限价收集, 淡友力量因屡攻不下而开始减少,令圆形底部的成交量亦减少。其后好友数目逐步增加,渐控制局面 ,股价才能逐 步上扬。及好友完全控制局面,市场需求转为求过于供,升势方转急。由于形成过程稍久,往往需时 数月始完成圆 形底形态。

    个别情况下,即使圆形底形成,股价并不会实时急升,仅会反复横行徘徊,这徘徊区称为“碟柄”或 “碗柄”。但 当升势既成,这“碟柄”或“碗柄”很快会被突破,股价转而向上,朝预期的上升趋势而行。
     
  9. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Wilmar surprised by Norwegian Fund Pullout

    15 March 2013

    Singapore-based plantation company Wilmar International said the withdrawal of investments from the world’s largest sovereign fund is “surprising” considering its ongoing efforts on sustainability.

    “The Norwegian Government Pension Fund’s decision to withdraw investments from the palm oil companies is regrettable and surprising, especially so because a number of these companies (which the fund withdrew from) are active members of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) including Wilmar,” it said.

    In an email to KiniBiz, Wilmar said it remains committed to sustainable development as “it is the only way to ensuring long-term viability of our business”.

    Instead of destroying forests, Wilmar said it only operates on land made up of degraded and logged-over secondary forests which have “lost their economic and environmental values”.

    “Converting these unproductive wastelands into productive plantations can help restore these values through implementation of the RSPO principles and criteria…which includes delineation and protection of High Conservation Value (HCV) areas,” it said.

    The company, which came last in Newsweek’s environmental ranking of 500 companies worldwide, added that half of its plantations are certified by RSPO.

    “Further to RSPO standards, we adhere to policies on no-burn practice and no development on peat-land, regardless of depth,” it said.

    Norway’s US$ 710 billion fund reported in its 2012 annual report that it pulled out of 23 Asian palm oil companies because their “long-term business model was deemed unsustainable”.

    The fund reportedly sold stakes from firms including Wilmar, Kuala Lumpur Kepong and Golden Agri-Resources.

    This follows the broadening of focus areas to include deforestation and climate change in its guidelines, which has been lauded by the RSPO.

    The fund said its pullout came following reviews which included contacting the companies for information, and weighing their commitment to the RSPO.

    Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund divests from 23 palm oil companies

    By Chris Lang
    13th March 2013

    The Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) divested from 23 palm oil companies in 2012. “Several palm oil producers were excluded from the portfolio because their long-term business model was deemed unsustainable,” GPFG writes in its 2012 annual report.

    For several years, Norway’s US$667 billion Sovereign Wealth Fund has been targeted by NGOs concerned about its investments in the palm oil sector and other sectors responsible for deforestation and environmental impacts.

    In 2009, the Environmental Investigation Agency wrote to the GPFG about its problematic investments in the oil palm sector. Two years later, Rainforest Foundation Norway and the Environmental Investigation Agency followed this up with a letter to Jens Stoltenberg, Norway’s Prime Minister. Last year, Rainforest Foundation Norway and and Friends of the Earth Norway published a report about Norway’s investments in environmentally damaging companies.

    Rainforest Foundation Norway’s Nils Hermann Ranum welcomes the divestment:

    “This is a major step forward and a victory for the remaining rainforests. One of the world’s biggest investors sends a clear signal to the oil palm industry that its destructive practices are unacceptable.”​

    In its annual report, GPFG explains the divestment as follows:

    In the first quarter of 2012 we sold our stakes in 23 companies that by our reckoning produced palm oil unsustainably. Before reaching this decision, we reviewed a number of companies contributing to tropical deforestation through their involvement in the palm oil industry in Malaysia and Indonesia. We contacted several of the companies to obtain information on how they managed deforestation and we placed weight on whether the companies had committed to the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil, which provides an international certification scheme for sustainable palm oil production.​

    JP Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research doesn’t seem to have read that part of GPFP’s annual report and appears unaware that some RSPO member companies continue to destroy forests. JP Morgan sees GPFP’s exit as a chance for other investors to buy shares in palm oil companies. Malaysian newspaper The Star reports JP Morgan as stating that,

    GPFG sales appear to be a blanket sell-down of the sector without company specific consideration — take the opportunity to accumulate good quality names…. Notably, many companies in the sector have during the course of the past 2 years been increasing their proportion of RSPO certified plantations. Furthermore, it was reported that stakes in the companies mentioned have been divested completely in 2012, indicating that they [sic] would be no further overhang on stock prices from stake sale by GPFG from hereon.​

    Among the companies from which GPFP divested are some RSPO members, including Wilmar, Golden Agri-Resorces, First Resources, Kuala Lumpur Kepong. Others are not RSPO members (a full list of the divested companies is below). Wilmar came 500th (out of 500) in Newsweek’s Green Rankings list in 2012. The fact that GPFP divested from Golden Agri-Resources perhaps suggests that it does not hold much faith in GAR’s no deforestation promise.

    However, the GPFG has not divested all of its investments in the palm oil sector. At the end of 2012, GPFG still had US$450 million invested in palm oil companies. And GPFP’s investments in Malaysian oil palm giant Sime Darby quadrupled between 2011 and 2012. Sime Darby came 495th in Newsweek’s Green Rankings.

    Ranum points out that,

    “Sime Darby is infamous for illegal land clearing, violent clashes with local communities, illegal forest fires and for threatening the last orangutan habitats. Sime Darby is also expanding into the African rainforest, an extremely worrying trend in the oil palm industry. This does not merit increased Norwegian public investments.”

    Greenpeace also welcomes the news, but Erika Bjureby from Greenpeace Nordic points out that RSPO “does not prevent deforestation”. She also criticises the increased investment in Sime Darby:

    “The fact that the pension fund has decided to quadruple investments in the Malaysian company Sime Darby indicates that the Pension fund is still lacking a clear, consistent approach. This company has not committed to forest protection beyond the weak RSPO-guidelines, while currently expanding in forested areas in Africa.”​

    Rainforest Foundation Norway provides this list of companies from which GPFG has completely divested:

    Divested in 2012:

    Astra International Tbk PT, Indonesia
    Berjaya Corp Bhd, Malaysia
    Boustead Holdings Bhd, Malaysia
    First Resources Ltd, Singapore
    Genting Plantations, Malaysia
    Golden Agri-Resorces Ltd, Singapore
    Indofood Agri Resources Ltd, Indonesia
    Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd, Malaysia
    Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, Malaysia
    United Plantations Bhd, Malaysia
    Wilmar International Ltd, Singapore
    WTK Holdings Bhd, Malaysia

    Divested in 2011:

    Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT, Indonesia,
    Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk PT, Indonesia
    Bakrie & Brothers, Indonesia
    Hap Seng Plantations Holdings, Malaysia
    IJM Plantations Bhd, Malaysia
    IOI Corp Bhd, Malaysia
    Kim Loong Resources Bhd, Malaysia
    Medco Energi International, Indonesia
    Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra, Indonesia
    PPB Group Bhd, Malaysia
    Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd, Malaysia
    Tradewinds Plantations Bhd, Malaysia
    TSH Resources, Malaysia

    Divested in 2010:

    Barito Pacific Tbk PT, Indonesia
    Oriental Holdings Bhd, Malaysia
    Sampoerna Agro, Indonesia
    United Malacca Bhd, Malaysia
    YNH Property Bhd, Malaysia


    DJ MARKET TALK: Wilmar Down 2.6%; Norway''s Wealth Fund Exits Segment
    (2013/03/11 15:09PM)

    0709 GMT [Dow Jones] Wilmar (F34.SG) is down 2.6% at S$3.34, with an
    analyst saying the decline follows news Norway's NOK3.82 billion sovereign
    wealth fund pulled out the shares of 23 palm oil companies due to concerns
    over deforestation. Thomson One data indicates the fund previously held
    around 0.25% of Wilmar's shares outstanding, or 16.3 million shares; the
    fund's website indicates it no longer holds any Wilmar shares. First
    Resources (EB5.SG) is off 3.5% at S$1.79. Thomson One data indicates the
    fund held 0.16% of First Resources' outstanding shares, or 2.61 million
    shares, while the fund's website indicates it doesn't hold the shares any
    longer. ([email protected])
     
  10. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    OCBC's review on Wilmar on 12 Mar 2013: UPGRADE TO BUY; SELL-DOWN LIKELY OVERDONE

    • Inflation fears likely overdone
    • Potential 18% upside from here
    • Upgrade to BUY

    Spooked by rebound in China’s inflation rate
    Wilmar International Limited (WIL) fell some 3.8% yesterday to
    S$3.30, likely spooked by news that China’s inflation rate has
    rebounded to a 10-month high; this after consumer prices rose 3.2%
    YoY in Feb, driven by a 6% increase in food prices due to the Chinese
    New Year festivities. Understandably, the Chinese government is still
    pretty hawkish with regards to inflation; and this has sparked some
    concerns over possible monetary tightening to keep a lid on inflation.
    We note that some quarters were also worried about potential price
    caps on essential food items such as rice, flour and cooking oil – these
    are some of the major food items that the company currently
    distributes in China.

    Drastic measures unlikely for now
    However, market watchers do not expect Beijing to tighten monetary
    policy just yet, as this may in turn hurt China’s growth. Recall that the
    economy grew by only 7.8% last year, in line with official guidance,
    but the slowest rise in 13 years. Nevertheless, it is fair to assume that
    some caution has crept back into the market. As for potential price
    caps, some market watchers are also of the view that there will not be
    any in the near term, as food prices are likely to edge lower in the
    coming months. In any case, the Food and Agriculture Organization
    (FAO) of the United Nations recently noted that global food prices
    were relatively stable in Feb; and the FAO Food Price Index has traded
    in a narrow 201-212 point range since Nov.

    Upgrade to BUY
    In view of the recent correction since we downgraded our call to Hold
    on 1 Mar, there is still a potential upside of 18% to our unchanged fair
    value of S$3.90 (based on 15x FY13F EPS). Hence, we upgrade our
    call to BUY. Over the longer term, we are also cautiously positive on
    the company’s expansion in Africa and potentially Myanmar.

    Wilmar International

    Tuesday, 26 February 2013

    Following on an earlier discussion dated 19 Feb 2013, we discussed that Wilmar International is having the possibility of further pullback to 3.350 - 3.400 upon breaking below 3.580 - 3.600. A move below 3.200 suggests that the downward trend may remains intact, while 3.400 is the immediate pivot level to look out for. Wilmar closed at 3.540 on 25 Feb 2013.

    While it is premature to conclude a cup and handle formation in the making, the probability of testing 3.400 seem possible. The current immediate support is 3.340 - 3.380 (gap support, 2 Jan 2013) and 3.840 - 3.850 (gap resistance, 5 Feb 2013).

    Putting everything into perspective, I have the opinion of four possible paths that may be in play:

    (1) A move below 3.200 will suggest the possibility of testing 2.300 - 2.410, which may coincide with the Median Line of downtrend Andrew's Pitchfork. A break below the Median Line will suggest further downside. This path may be invalidated when Wilmar breaks above 3.920 and the Upper Bound of downtrend Andrew's Pitchfork.

    (2) Holding above 3.200, a move below 3.400 to find support at 3.340 - 3.380. A possible rebound back to 3.580 - 3.600 before retesting 3.200. This path may be invalidated when Wilmar breaks above the Upper Bound of downtrend Andrew's Pitchfork and breaks above 3.600.

    (3) Holding above 3.400 and a subsequent break above 3.920 will suggest the possibility of covering 4.440 - 4.70 (gap resistance, 10 May 2012). This path may be invalidated when Wilmar move below 3.400

    (4) Holding within the Median Line and Upper Bound of downtrend Andrew's Pitchfork will suggest progressing downward in a zig zag pattern. This path may be invalidated upon the break through below the Median Line or above the Upper Bound.


    Wilmar (weekly) 25 Feb 2013

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar 26 Feb 2013

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2013
  11. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    The gameplay is always: Buy at low sell at high or Short at high cover at low

    EXAMPLE:

    On 25 Feb 2013, Wilmar broke the H&S neckline closing @ 3.54.

    Wilmar's trading strategy — Short

    Trade size 50 lots, every trade target profit @ 0.05; continue shorting at lower highs (rebound) when all support levels are taken out convincingly.

    Price Levels to cover short:
    1. S$3.45
    2. S$3.40
    3. S$3.35
    4. S$3.30

    WilmarH&S Breakout; TP 3.27

    Wilmar closed with a black marubozu @ 3.30 (-0.13, -3.8%) on 11 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.40 immediate support 3.30, strong support @ 3.27.

    [​IMG]

    [Trading Central] Wilmar International: turning down.

    04 Mar 2013 18:42

    Update on supports and resistances.

    Short Term View

    (Rise, Limited Rise, Consolidation, Limited Decline, Decline) Limited Decline

    Change In Short Term View None

    Medium Term View

    (Bullish, Range, Bearish) Range

    Change In Medium Term View None​

    Pivot: 3.75

    Our preference: Short positions below 3.75 with targets @ 3.2 & 3 in extension.

    Alternative scenario: Above 3.75 look for further upside with 3.9 & 4.1 as targets.

    Comment: the RSI broke below a rising trend line.

    Key levels
    4.1
    3.9
    3.75
    3.42 last
    3.2
    3
    2.9

    Copyright 1999 - 2013 TRADING CENTRAL

    [​IMG]

    [video=youtube;2xA6glNZYYg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xA6glNZYYg[/video]

    如何警覺哪些股票主力正在拉高出貨?

    量价分析:量增价跌

    1. 是价量背离的讯号,后市以偏空为主,但仍待确认。
    2. 在跌势末期时,量增代表低档买盘进入转趋积极,距离指数低档应不远。
    3. 在涨势初期或低档盘整阶段,可能是多头力道正在酝酿,若配合期指未平仓量的增加,未来行情上涨机会甚大。
    4. 在涨势末期则为多头获利了结心态浓厚,未来反转下跌可能性大增。
    5. 若盘势处于跌势初期则未来盘势会持续下跌。
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2013
  12. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Milo-Dino,

    My close friend had closed all his long positions in Wilmar @ S$3.50/sh in Feb 2013 (total 500 lots bgt average @ S$3.30/sh since Aug 2012).
     
  13. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Using TA as a guide; everyone has the ability to Train your eyes to earn your profits!

    Based on H&S breakout; my Wilmar's chart posted on Monday 04-03-2013, 01:11 PM coincided with Trading Central's preference (short; due to the RSI broke below a rising trend line) on Wilmar on Monday 4 Mar 2013 18:42.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  14. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Wilmar hit high of 3.40, low of 3.35 now @ 3.35 (-0.08, -2.3%) 11 Mar 1.20pm. :hammer:

    [Trading Central] Wilmar International: turning down.

    04 Mar 2013 18:42

    Update on supports and resistances.

    Short Term View

    (Rise, Limited Rise, Consolidation, Limited Decline, Decline) Limited Decline

    Change In Short Term View None

    Medium Term View

    (Bullish, Range, Bearish) Range

    Change In Medium Term View None​

    Pivot: 3.75

    Our preference: Short positions below 3.75 with targets @ 3.2 & 3 in extension.

    Alternative scenario: Above 3.75 look for further upside with 3.9 & 4.1 as targets.

    Comment: the RSI broke below a rising trend line.

    Key levels
    4.1
    3.9
    3.75
    3.42 last
    3.2
    3
    2.9

    Copyright 1999 - 2013 TRADING CENTRAL

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar Buys Majority Stake in Noble’s Indonesia Palm Oil Venture

    – Wilmar looks to Papua for palm oil plantation expansion

    – Risk sharing venture with Noble could aid Wilmar sugar project

    – Wilmar net profit in the fourth quarter fell 4.7%

    By Gaurav Raghuvanshi and Martin Vaughan
    FEBRUARY 22, 2013 15:10 UTC+8

    Wilmar International Ltd. (F34.SG) has taken a majority stake in a palm plantation venture in Indonesia's Papua owned by Noble Group Ltd. (N21.SG), giving the world's biggest palm oil supplier by volume a toehold in the province where it also hopes to grow sugarcane.

    Wilmar bought a 53.74% stake in a Noble unit that has a majority stake in a company owning 22,953 hectares of land. Wilmar and Noble will form a joint venture to develop palm plantations there, the Singapore-listed commodity suppliers said in a statement Friday. Noble will hold the rest of the equity.

    Wilmar and Noble didn't share financial details of the deal, but based on industry estimates, developing the land into palm oil plantations would cost between US$125 million to US$150 million spread over a four to five year period.

    The deal will allow Noble to split the cost of developing the plantation and benefit from Wilmar's palm oil know-how, as it has about 256,000 hectares of plantations in Indonesia, Malaysia and Africa. Wilmar's Indonesian plantations are mainly concentrated in Sumatra and Kalimantan.

    "Papua is not an easy region, if they can do this they can move on with their plans to develop sugarcane plantations in Papua," said a Singapore-based analyst with a global bank who didn't wish to be named.

    In 2010, Wilmar said it plans to develop sugarcane plantations and set up mills in Papua in Indonesia's Merauke food estate.

    The deal will allow Noble to "benefit from that expertise and to jointly build upon the initial platform that we have been developing over the last few years," Yusuf Alireza, a former Goldman Sachs banker who joined Noble as chief executive last year, said in the joint press statement, referring to Noble's palm oil plantation foray.

    Noble may also be looking to get Wilmar on board as a way to hedge its plantation investment as volatile palm oil prices are being driven by rising inventories and weaker demand. The benchmark Malaysia Derivatives crude palm oil contract has fallen 22% so far this year, with the May contract for delivery at Bursa ending at 2,536 ringgit a metric ton on Thursday.

    The venture comes at a time of growing environmentalist criticism of the industry over the burning peat forests to expand plantations, which releases massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and which threatens the habitats of wild animals, particularly orangutans, in Borneo and Sumatra.

    "Habitat conversion from natural forests to oil palm plantations has been shown to have a devastating impact on tropical forests, along with plants and animals that depend on them," according to a statement on the impact of palm plantations on orangutans by the World Wide Fund for Nature, or WWF. The undated statement is posted on WWF's website.

    Indonesia, which accounts for around 60% of global crude palm oil output, produced about 28 million metric tons last year. Malaysia is the second biggest producer with 18.8 million tons, according to industry estimates.

    Separately, Wilmar said its net profit in the fourth quarter fell 4.7%, weighed by lower palm oil prices, to 476.8 million Singapore dollars (US$384 million), down from S$500 million recorded in the same period in 2011. The firm's plantations segment profits were down 23% compared to the previous year.

    Profits in most other segments grew, including an 8% rise in its sugar business.

    Despite the figures, the company struck an optimistic tone for the years ahead, citing demand for commodities from emerging markets.

    "Whilst uncertainties in the global economy remain, we are cautiously optimistic of our long term prospects due to good economic growth in our main markets of China, India and Indonesia and the robust business model we have built up over the years," said Wilmar Chairman and CEO Kuok Khoon Hong in the statement.


     
  15. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    WilmarH&S Breakout; TP 3.27

    Wilmar closed with an inverted hammer @ 3.43 (-0.04, -1.2%) on 8 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.57, immediate support @ 3.40, strong support @ 3.27.

    [​IMG]

    [video=youtube;2xA6glNZYYg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xA6glNZYYg[/video]

    如何警覺哪些股票主力正在拉高出貨?

    量价分析:量增价跌

    1. 是价量背离的讯号,后市以偏空为主,但仍待确认。
    2. 在跌势末期时,量增代表低档买盘进入转趋积极,距离指数低档应不远。
    3. 在涨势初期或低档盘整阶段,可能是多头力道正在酝酿,若配合期指未平仓量的增加,未来行情上涨机会甚大。
    4. 在涨势末期则为多头获利了结心态浓厚,未来反转下跌可能性大增。
    5. 若盘势处于跌势初期则未来盘势会持续下跌。
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2013
  16. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    The Matthew effect (强者越强,弱者愈弱)

    In any sector, the fittest survives; long/buy the strongest stock, short/sell the weakest stock.

    Example of 3 weak stocks (long-term downtrend); TigerAir, ChinaFish and Wilmar:

    TigerAirDouble Top formation

    TigerAir closed with a black marubozu 0.69 (-0.025, -3.5%) on 5 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance 0.735, crucial support 0.685.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    ChinaFishH&S Breakout

    ChinaFish closed unchanged with a dragonfly doji @ 0.575 on 5 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 0.59, immediate support @ 0.555, next support 0.535.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    WilmarH&S Breakout; TP 3.27

    Wilmar closed with a bullish harami @ 3.46 (+0.04, +1.2%) on 5 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.57, immediate support @ 3.46, next support 3.40, strong support @ 3.27.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar International — 2006 to 9 Nov 2012

    [​IMG]
     
  17. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    WilmarH&S Breakout; TP 3.27

    Wilmar closed with a bullish harami @ 3.46 (+0.04, +1.2%) on 5 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.57, immediate support @ 3.46, next support 3.40, strong support @ 3.27.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Analysts' TP on Wilmar International, Feb 2012:

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar Stock Slump May Extend on Trading Concern: Southeast Asia

    By Michelle Yun
    Jan 7, 2013

    Wilmar International Ltd. (WIL), the worst performing stock on Singapore’s Straits Times Index in 2012, may extend its slide this year as investors favor agricultural companies that rely less on trading.

    Wilmar, the world’s largest palm oil processor, lost 33 percent last year, its third annual drop in a row, as profit missed analysts’ estimates in three of the four quarterly reports issued during the year. The company’s stock may fall 6.1 percent, based on the average of 21 analysts’ 12-month target prices compiled by Bloomberg.

    The company slumped as commodities including palm oil and sugar declined last year. The questioning of Olam (OLAM) International Ltd.’s accounts by short-seller Carson Block’s Muddy Waters LLC made some wary of buying into agricultural companies, even as a growing global population fuels demand for food. Some investors and analysts also highlight that producers engaging in trading activities potentially carry more risk.

    “The concept of agriculture and food resources is absolutely a valid concept,” said Hugh Young, who helps manage about $70 billion of Asian equities at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd. in Singapore and doesn’t hold Wilmar or Olam. “Some are trading companies with which we feel naturally a little uncomfortable because the trades can go both ways.”

    Wilmar’s slide compares with a 20 percent gain for Singapore’s benchmark index in 2012. Olam, which was targeted by Block in November, lost 27 percent last year, its second straight yearly loss and the second-worst performance on Singapore’s main index. Wilmar and Olam, both based in Singapore, declined to comment on their share price performance.

    Earnings Slump

    Wilmar gained 0.3 percent to S$3.60 in Singapore today, compared with a 0.2 percent fall in the Straits Times index.

    Analysts have a 12-month price target of S$3.38 on average. Seven analysts recommend selling Wilmar stock, nine advise buying it and 11 rate it hold.

    Profit at Wilmar may have shrunk 31 percent to $1.1 billion in the year ended Dec. 31, the lowest since 2007, according to 21 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company may post net income of $1.35 billion this year, still 16 percent lower than 2011, according to the average of 21 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

    Analysts such as DBS Group Holdings Ltd.’s Ben Santoso still expect a weak contribution from Wilmar’s oilseeds unit this year, which processes soybeans into meal and oil, after it posted losses in the first half of 2012. The loss was partly blamed on bad timing of bean purchases.

    Margins on processing soybeans, known as crushing, will probably “return back to positive territory but it’s not going to be a major driver,” Santoso said by phone from Singapore. Overcapacity in the industry will continue to affect the unit’s profitability, he said.

    Muddy Waters

    Olam, the world’s second-largest rice trader, may struggle to shed concerns about its accounts and strategy raised by Block and his research firm Muddy Waters. He first questioned Olam’s accounting methods at a London conference on Nov. 19, and later said the company may collapse in a 133-page research report rating it a strong sell.

    Olam rejected the claims and sued Block and Muddy Waters in Singapore on Nov. 21. The commodity trader said last week it’s in the best financial health since its 2005 initial public offering and is “comfortable” with its debt.

    “Besides the still gloomy economic outlook, investors’ appetite toward commodities-related players -- especially those with complex business models -- is also likely to remain lukewarm in the wake of the recent saga involving Olam and Muddy Waters,” Carey Wong, a senior analyst at OCBC Investment Research Pte., said in a Dec. 12 report.

    Temasek Backing

    Wong rates the commodities sector “underweight” and expects Olam to fall to S$1.44, lower than the S$1.68 closing price on Jan. 4. Still, the average 12-month target price of 16 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg is S$1.83. The stock lost 2.4 percent to S$1.64 in Singapore trading at the close.

    Olam, which counts Singapore state investment company Temasek Holdings Pte as its second-largest shareholder, has 11 buy ratings, six holds and four sells, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    Temasek raised its stake in Olam to 19 percent last month and will buy any rights not taken up by other investors in the commodity company’s proposed $1.25 billion bond and warrant offering.

    Demand for agricultural commodities may be supported by a rebound in China, the biggest consumer of soybeans, which is poised to snap a seven-quarter slowdown as growth probably accelerated to 7.8 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, according to the median of 35 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

    Pure Producers

    Aberdeen’s Young said he prefers pure producers such as United Malacca Bhd (UMR) and United Plantations Bhd (UPL), which are both traded in Kuala Lumpur. “We prefer simpler, more plain-vanilla type companies.”

    United Malacca gained 5.4 percent last year and United Plantations advanced 32 percent in Kuala Lumpur trading.

    “The plantation companies we like have an area with ground, with trees, and they produce palm oil,” he said. “It’s quite tangible. Land assets, land rights are very visible.”

    Singapore-based Golden Agri-Resources Ltd. (GGR), the world’s second-biggest palm oil producer, declined 9.1 percent last year. That made it the third-worst performer in Singapore, yet it outperformed Wilmar and Olam.

    Golden Agri

    The average 12-month target price for Golden Agri- Resources’ stock is 74 Singapore cents, compared with close of 66.5 cents on Jan. 4, based on 19 analysts’ predictions compiled by Bloomberg. The stock dropped 0.8 percent to 66 cents today.

    Profit at the Singapore-based producer may have plunged to $494.7 million in 2012, the lowest since 2006, according to 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The stock has dropped amid a 23 percent retreat in palm oil, as customers cut orders and inventories piled up.

    “It is hard to be really bullish on the sector at the moment,” said Julie Tay, an investment manager at Scottish Investment Trust Plc, which oversees about $1 billion in assets. “The positive and negative factors for palm oil look quite balanced in the near term.”
     
  18. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Wilmar now 3.43 (-0.08, -2.3%). :hammer:

     
  19. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    The gameplay is always: Buy at low sell at high or Short at high cover at low

    EXAMPLE:

    On 25 Feb 2013, Wilmar broke the H&S neckline closing @ 3.54.

    Wilmar's trading strategy — Short

    Trade size 50 lots, every trade target profit @ 0.05; continue shorting at lower highs (rebound) when all support levels are taken out convincingly.

    Price Levels to cover short:
    1. S$3.45
    2. S$3.40
    3. S$3.35
    4. S$3.30

    WilmarH&S Breakout; TP 3.27

    Wilmar closed with a spinning top @ 3.51 (-0.04, -1.1%) on 1 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.57, immediate support @ 3.46, next support 3.40, the 200d SMA, strong support @ 3.27.

    [​IMG]

     
  20. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    WilmarH&S Breakout; TP 3.27

    Wilmar closed with a spinning top @ 3.51 (-0.04, -1.1%) on 1 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.57, immediate support @ 3.46, next support 3.40, the 200d SMA, strong support @ 3.27.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Example of H&S breakout with horizontal neckline: Cosco Corp

    [​IMG]
     
Loading...

Share This Page