The Trading Floor - September 2015

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Sep 1, 2015.


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  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    aa1b.gif
     
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    DBS - 1 Sep 2015


    Today’s Focus
     Singapore Strategy - Base case trading range of
    2750-3050; 25% downside to STI target of 2250 if
    crisis hits


    US stocks retreated from last week’s rebound as investors mulled over a rate hike as early as September. Energy shares rose as the rebound in oil price pushed higher after data showed US crude production estimates fell and OPEC said it’s ready to talk to other global producers to achieve “fair prices.”


    Singapore stocks should start the session a little softer but we do not see much follow through decline from yesterday as prices had already adjusted to the near 200pt drop in the Dow futures yesterday. Energy shares could rise, led by Sembcorp Marine on news that it has won an USD1bil contract. Meanwhile, data released this morning showed China’s August manufacturing PMI reading of 49.7, in line with consensus. Services PMI of 53.4 was slightly lower than the previous month’s 53.9.


    While the current uncertainties in Asia are not seen as a GFC in the making, many investors are worried that it is reminiscent of the AFC with the weakening South-East Asian currencies. However, we think the probability of a full blown AFC in a similar magnitude is low because Asia is less reliant on external debt and has higher foreign currency reserves. The current account balances for most Asian economies have also improved. That said, our team has cut back growth assumptions and imputed higher risk and lower valuation for our base case target prices on STI components. We now expect earnings to decline by 1% this year. Our base case is for the STI to trade within the 2750 to 3050 range. Negative surprises could trigger bear case scenario. Our bottom up bear case scenario for the STI is 2250, which coincides with the P/BV levels during the 1998 AFC and 2009 GFC troughs.


    We prefer to maintain a trading stance and be tactical in our buy and sell calls. Our buys are companies which are bombed out in the oil and gas sector (SembCorp Industries), oil price beneficiaries (SIA) or companies with high earnings visibility (iFAST). Venture is a beneficiary of the weak Ringgit and strong USD. We continue to avoid highly geared

    Singapore Wired Daily

    Page 2

    companies, as it is a question of time before higher interest rates hit corporates. We would top slice stocks which are trading close to our base case TPs and have potential downside to our bear target prices – Jardine C&C and Petra remain vulnerable to the declining Rupiah and slower growth in Indonesia, SPH which faces downside risk from ADEX if the economy slips into a recession. Provision levels for UOB could rise if economic condition and the property market deterioriate.
     
  3. lexanne

    lexanne Well-Known Member

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    I wasn't watching for half an hour and a lot of my shorts were covered. Botak... covered at 19.41, 19.38 and 19.11 and collected 27 cts, 22 cts and 17 cts. SGX... covered at 7.25 and collected 5 cts. Too many to list. :001_tongue:
     
  4. Newbee

    Newbee Well-Known Member

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    Good evening sniper :)
    Congrats to Bro NB and Sista Lexanne...
    Mkt came down again....
     
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    SingTel...

    3.70 : 3.71.

    Like I said...breaks 3.82 to welcome the 70s.

    Wave A = Wave C.

    Target for Wave C is 3.52.
     
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    The SHORTs... covered at 3.80 ler. Made enuf for a Bento Meal though at say Ichiban.
    Now waiting for another Bento Meal for my LONGs.
     
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Now -384.
    But our market macam got used to scary scary figures ler.
     
  8. krobuse

    krobuse Well-Known Member

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    gd afternoon...
    dow futures scary -300+ leh...
    this mth end got Q window dressing?....if hv,...got chance lor...
    i believe fed will up rates this mth... ?
    so mkt may dip and then rebound for Q end dressing up...?
    my 2 sen....
     
  9. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Miss Horny...

    Did both a LONG and SHORT at 6.82. aa7.gif
     
  10. lexanne

    lexanne Well-Known Member

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    Botak... added whoosh at 19.62.
     
  11. lexanne

    lexanne Well-Known Member

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    SGX... whooshed at 7.30.
     
  12. lexanne

    lexanne Well-Known Member

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    GLP... whooshed at 2.17.
     
  13. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    Ms HK is a good candidate for shorting in this season
     
  14. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    aa-1j.gif
     
  15. lexanne

    lexanne Well-Known Member

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    Singtel... wanted to whoosh at 3.76 but didn't. Now 3.74 : 3.75. :hammer:
     
  16. lexanne

    lexanne Well-Known Member

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    Miss HK... covered 2 batches at 6.81 and 6.79 and collected 11 cts and 10 cts. Covered GLP at 2.16 and collected 4 cts. Yay! dancing.gif
     
  17. lexanne

    lexanne Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, gor! I'm fighting back. Hope to make back what I lost in Aug soon.
     
  18. lexanne

    lexanne Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, oppa! Did you short while looning? Easier to make money from shorting when market is falling.
     
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    My paper trades...

    Most are underwater.
    A couple are flat.
    Only one in the right direction.
    Nett Nett = aa3.gif

    Only when the Nett Nett puts a smile on my face that I can put real money on the table.
     
  20. lexanne

    lexanne Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, sis Luna!
     
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