The Trading Floor - June 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, May 31, 2018.


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  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  2. koaladreaming

    koaladreaming Well-Known Member

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    Thx Bro. Deeply appreciative of your view. :)
     
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    I bought at 3.11 yesterday and added at 3.07 today.
    But I guess that...is something which you, Dai Lole, already know. aa1a (16).gif


     
  4. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (June 21): Despite the US and China having agreed to back down from imposing tariffs in May, the Trump administration has gone ahead to slap a 25% tariff on up to US$50 billion ($68 billion) of Chinese products.

    In retaliation, China last Friday to respond with a 25% tariff on US$34 billion of US goods which includes soybean.

    Since the announcement, US soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil prices have declined by 4.6%, 3.4% and 4.3% respectively from the prices recorded on June 14. Soybean futures also plunged to their lowest in more than nine years to US$8.415/bushel on June 19, according to Reuters.

    In tandem, crude palm oil (CPO) prices declined further to a new low of US$577/tonne (RM2,307/tonne), plunging 23% from the peak of US$754/tonne (RM3,348/tonne) in Feb 17 and falling 2.0% ytd.

    In a Thursday report on the plantation sector, lead analyst Leow Huey Chuen says the further drop in CPO prices could be due to concerns on weak exports. According to Societe Generale de Surveillance, Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 10% m-o-m to 498,270 tonnes in June 1-15, and palm oil exports to China and the EU were down the most at 39% m-o-m and 37% m-o-m respectively for the period.

    Last year, China imported about 33 million tonnes of soybean -- or 34.4% of its total soybean import -- from the US. If the import tariff on soybean imports from the US materialises, China will need to buy costlier soybean from Brazil and Argentina due to insufficient supply in the market.

    Leow says China's domestic soybean meal prices and soy oil prices will increase as well to reflect the temporary tightness in soybean meal and soy oil supply due to the soybean shortage. The increase in soy oil prices could lead to demand switching to palm oil from soy oil as both oils are close substitutes.

    In addition, further weakening in CPO prices has resulted in a CPO-gasoil price differential (PO-GO spread) of –US$72/tonne currently versus +US$274/tonne on Jan 20 16. This means cheaper CPO prices have made the biodiesel programme more financially viable.

    Indonesia’s domestic biodiesel blending has high chances of exceeding its initial target of 3.6 million kl as discretionary blending is also picking up now that palm biodiesel is cheaper. Biodiesel exports from Malaysia and Indonesia are also gaining momentum and, based on channel checks, there are biodiesel shipments going into China’s market as well.

    In conclusion, Leow says impact on Wilmar’s soybean crushing operation in China is difficult to quantify, with the timing of purchase of raw materials and sales of end products being crucial factors. However, if the timing is right, Wilmar could benefit from the sudden rise in soymeal prices in China now, adds Leow.

    “The higher biodiesel demand and potential switch from soyoil to palm oil in China could be positive to CPO prices in the longer term. Maintain ‘market weight’,” says Leow.

    As at 12.27pm, shares in Wilmar are down 7 cents at $3.05.
     
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Get ready to buy DBS on dips below 27.00.
    Last Low was 26.35.
     
    koaladreaming and sotong11 like this.
  6. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    good morning snipers
     
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Thanks Dai Lole.
     
  9. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (June 20): OCBC Investment Research says Singtel’s guidance for dividends to be maintained at 17.5 cents for FY19 and FY20 signals a stable cashflow outlook despite the competitive pressures.

    Management intends to keep traditional carriage revenues flat over five years as voice-to-data substitution continues, but aims to grow digital and enterprise revenues as a proportion of consolidated revenues from 24% in FY18 to 50% by FY23.

    Meanwhile, Singtel’s core markets of Australia and Singapore continue to face competitive pressures in the consumer segment with the impending entry of TPG in both markets.

    However, Singtel will continue to differentiate itself by better customer experience and offering innovative offerings such as handset leasing plans as well as exclusive handset deals. Singtel is also digitalising its operations to lower costs and improve customer experience.

    For Optus, management expects the initial competition from TPG to be milder given that TPG will launch with data-only mobile plans for the start.

    That said, having seen a strong FY18 which saw the addition of 384,000 customers to its subscriber base, Optus will continue to differentiate based on customer experience and premium content among others.

    In addition, holding the most 5G spectrum relative to its competitors, Optus intends to leverage on this advantage and launch 5G services in 2019, ahead of its peers.

    “We maintain our fair value estimate of $4.10 on Singtel,” says lead analyst Eugene Chua in a Wednesday report or 18.3 times FY19F earnings of 22.4 cents.
     
  10. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Wilmar...

    Now 3.20 : 3.21.
    Chart shows a possible entry for a LONG trade at 3.14.


    [​IMG]
     
  12. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Dow fell.
    Dow Futures bely ANG.
    But our market says.... "Chill guys. Relax!!!"
     
  13. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    Good morning.. are we seeing more RED today?
     
  14. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  15. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    good morning snipers
     
  16. DeepBlue

    DeepBlue Well-Known Member

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    Trump's 50 billion tariff rhetoric likely to keep market honest.:)
     
  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    The 4 Musketeers... their reporting months are the months we usually see a run-up for Results cum Dividend.
    And their reporting months are in Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct.
    Observe from the following charts that from July 2017 to Jan 2018, they were all generally still showing a higher high price action.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    But observe that from Jan 2018 to Apr 2018, all 4 Musketeers exhibited a change in trend in that they were unable to go higher anymore.
    The significance of this is that if this trend continues, we must expect to see their Jul HIGHs lower than their Apr HIGHs. And if that is the
    case, it means we must have the patience to wait to buy low enough. Becoz if we dont and their Jul HIGHs are lower than their Apr HIGHs,
    we may find ourselves squeezed with a rather low profit margin which will leave us with little margin for error.
     
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Bro...

    What we are having now is the one leg down in June.
    When it ends, the market will trade to the upside again for July Results and Dividend Play.

    Bro... your Starhub does not look good.
    What used to be 20 cts per year is now 16 cts and looks like they wont be able to keep up at 16 cts per year too.
    And stock price has come off by some 40% since Jan 2018.
    And I dont think we have seen the bottom yet.
    Time to reassess your strategy, bro of getting free shares via the dividends.
     
  20. koaladreaming

    koaladreaming Well-Known Member

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    STI likely to be listless what with the World Cup, and School Hols this June.
     
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