The Trading Floor - July 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Jun 30, 2018.


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  1. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 11): Manulife Centre on Bras Basah Road is targeted by British property group Chelsfield for $550 million, according to media reports.

    This translates to a psf price of $2,300 on net lettable area (NLA) of 242,000 sf.

    In a Tuesday note, DBS Group Research says the potential sale of Manulife Centre at a mid-2% yield based on NPI (net property income) is a continuation of the trend of fringe CBD office properties being sold on tight yields contrary to investor expectations that Singapore office cap rates should expand in a rising interest rate environment.

    Recent fringe CBD office transactions include the disposal by CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT) of Twenty Anson to AEW on a 2.7% NPI yield as well as a 50% interest One George Street and Wilkie Edge on 3.2% and 3.4% exit yields respectively, according to DBS.

    The research house believes these transactions highlight the desirability of Singapore office properties as an attractive investment class by global investors contrary to equity investors who have marked down office REITs.

    “Office REITs currently trade below book value which we believe is unjustified given that the better located Grade A office buildings owned by the REITs are being valued by the REITs using a 3.6-4.10% cap rate,” says leas analyst Mervin Song.

    In addition, prospects of a multi-year recovery in office rents given easing supply pressures over the next 3-4 years should translate to office REITs trading at least at book value if not a premium.

    Evidence of the strong recovery rents is the reported 4.1% q-o-q increase in Grade A rents to $10 psf/month in June, up from lows of $8.95 psf/month in 1H17. This faster than expected increase in rents also provides upside risk to DBS’s DPU estimates.

    With evidence that office values in Singapore are holding up if not increasing, and rents are on an upward trend, DBS is maintaining its overweight stance on office REITs with CapitaLand Commercial Trust (“buy” with target price of $2.12) as its top pick.
     
  2. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers
     
  3. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    good morning.. Ang Ang day
     
  4. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    result AMC .......
     
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Dai Lole...

    Can post SPH results?
    Thanks.
     
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  7. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    U.S. readying new tariffs on up to $200 billion of Chinese goods

    Published: July 10, 2018 6:42 p.m. ET

    WASHINGTON — The White House said it would assess tariffs on a further $200 billion in Chinese goods, deepening the dispute with Beijing, while sending a message to European trading partners that the U.S. won’t back away from trade fights.

    The new round of tariffs comes on top of two others and is bound to be met with threats of retaliation from Beijing. Officials in both nations say there are currently no negotiations scheduled, but a senior administration official said the U.S. was willing to talk with China about a resolution.

    “We are trying to get China to alleviate its unfair practices,” the official said.

    Previous discussions between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese economic envoy Liu He didn’t come close to resolving the dispute. The new tariffs won’t take effect for at least two months, administration officials said, giving U.S. industry time to comment on the products selected for levies.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2018
  8. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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  9. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    DBS...

    IF the move from 25.01 to 26.47 is Wave 1, then possible targets for Wave 2 are:

    38.2% - 25.91
    50.0% - 25.74
    61.8% - 25.56

    These are fibonacci retracement targets used by TA practitioners.
     
  10. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 10): Credit Suisse says the Singapore market is the “place to be” for investors given it is trading at favourable valuations, offers a blend of cyclical exposure and is a beneficiary of higher interest rates.

    At present, the Singapore market has a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 12.4 times which is below the 10-year average of 13.3 times, thanks to the recent pullback.

    “Rising interest rates and higher oil prices are driving a rebound in earnings growth (15% in 2018),” notes Credit Suisse in a media statement on Monday.

    “In terms of sectors, we expect banks to lead, given strong credit growth, improving asset quality and margin expansion, leading to an uplift in return on equity (ROE). Conversely, rising interest rates are likely to continue to weigh on real estate investment trusts (REITs),” it adds.

    The bank has added Singapore to its preferred markets alongside China and South Korea, and remains negative on Thailand, Malaysia and India.

    As for currency, the bank is maintaining its positive view on the SGD and forecasts the USD/SGD at 1.31 over the next 12 months, supported mainly by robust economic growth.

    It also expects a strengthening of the EUR could work in the SGD's favour, given the positive correlation observed between the USD Index and the USD/SGD.

    On a global scale, Credit Suisse expects equity markets have upside potential in 2H18 with strong economic growth expected to boost earnings, as it believes trade fractions are likely to have micro rather than macro implications.

    The bank continues to favour equities over fixed income, but recommends active equity investment strategies to limit exposure in the event that volatility returns. It also expects to continue its implementation of more rotations across sectors and regions in 2018 than before, with sector preferences including energy, technology and financials.

    Noting “clear signs” that economic growth is set to accelerate across major regions in the second half of 2018, John Woods, CIO, Asia Pacific, Credit Suisse, believes this will create a favorable climate for equities and certain commodities.

    However, he cautions that investors should remain alert to the potential impacts of trade frictions and other political and policy risks.

    “We strongly recommend a well-diversified investment portfolio and an active investment strategy to ensure flexibility in periods of volatility. In this environment, we also expect central banks in the US and Europe to take further steps towards normalising monetary policy,” says Woods.
     
  11. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    good morning
     
  12. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers
     
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  14. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Notice that SingTel is not in the Top 10 Net Sell by Institution List.
     
    sotong11 likes this.
  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Trump one round.
    Xi one round.
    Market expected the above.
    So now market has stabilised.
    Next thing is...when our market is closed tonite and Trump wakes up on Monday morning to go to work, will he fire his second round of tariff
    right away. Becoz Wall Street will react to that immediately and we will wake up to a Tuesday morning very different from this morning.
     
  17. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    good morning snipers
     
  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  19. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 6): In the words of Nouriel Roubini, everybody loses in a trade war.

    Currently a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, the prominent American economist has worked at the International Monetary Fund, US Federal Reserve and World Bank – and more recently, was among the keynote speakers Amundi World Investment Forum 2018 conference in Paris on June 28 and 29. Here are some of his views:

    Supply chains are now global and can be disrupted in one way or another.
    The extent of the economic damage depends on how severe restrictions are on trade in goods and services, on labour and capital, says Roubini. Eventually, restrictions in trade, in technology, in information will occur. There is a risk that the world may become slightly less globalised or de-globalised.

    Things are going to get worse in China.
    It is not just the trading of goods but also the jobs and incomes of white- and blue-collar workers that Trump is worried about. In Roubini’s view, the conflicts regarding trade are going to escalate to technology, to intellectual property rights, to foreign investment.

    Fears about a trade war can have a negative impact on both business and consumer confidence.
    The impact wasn’t only felt in Chinese equity markets but also throughout Asia. By restricting global supply chains, it creates uncertainties about what business can be done globally. Therefore, capital spending may be negatively affected; FDI too.

    China has a “nuclear” option against the US.
    It is possible that China may consider the dumping of some of its holdings in US Treasuries. These are the elements of such wars. Tensions between China and US are not just tariffs and trade; they could escalate into so much more.

    By 2020, we could be in a world where trade tensions are more serious.
    If there were a severe trade war in the US with its trading partners – and it becomes a real trade war that escalates with retaliation – at some point, the market reaction is not going to be a correction but a bear market, says Roubini. The impact on business and consumer confidence will be significant, he adds.
     
  20. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    China implemented retaliatory tariffs on some imports from the U.S. Friday, state media reported, immediately after new U.S. duties had taken effect.

    The move signals the start of a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies, after President Donald Trump’s administration had initially made good on threats to impose steep tariffs on Chinese goods.

    At midnight Washington time, the U.S. imposed new tariffs on $34 billion of annual imports from China. This prompted Beijing to respond in kind with levy tariffs on 545 items of U.S. imports — also worth $34 billion, state-run newspaper The China Daily reported Friday.
     
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