The Trading Floor - July 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Jun 30, 2018.


Draft saved Draft deleted
  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,517
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,517
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    Notice that SingTel is not in the Top 10 Net Sell by Institution List.
     
    sotong11 likes this.
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,517
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
  4. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,517
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    Trump one round.
    Xi one round.
    Market expected the above.
    So now market has stabilised.
    Next thing is...when our market is closed tonite and Trump wakes up on Monday morning to go to work, will he fire his second round of tariff
    right away. Becoz Wall Street will react to that immediately and we will wake up to a Tuesday morning very different from this morning.
     
  5. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2013
    Messages:
    3,791
    Likes Received:
    9
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Singapura
    good morning snipers
     
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,517
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
  7. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    4,022
    Likes Received:
    17
    SINGAPORE (July 6): In the words of Nouriel Roubini, everybody loses in a trade war.

    Currently a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, the prominent American economist has worked at the International Monetary Fund, US Federal Reserve and World Bank – and more recently, was among the keynote speakers Amundi World Investment Forum 2018 conference in Paris on June 28 and 29. Here are some of his views:

    Supply chains are now global and can be disrupted in one way or another.
    The extent of the economic damage depends on how severe restrictions are on trade in goods and services, on labour and capital, says Roubini. Eventually, restrictions in trade, in technology, in information will occur. There is a risk that the world may become slightly less globalised or de-globalised.

    Things are going to get worse in China.
    It is not just the trading of goods but also the jobs and incomes of white- and blue-collar workers that Trump is worried about. In Roubini’s view, the conflicts regarding trade are going to escalate to technology, to intellectual property rights, to foreign investment.

    Fears about a trade war can have a negative impact on both business and consumer confidence.
    The impact wasn’t only felt in Chinese equity markets but also throughout Asia. By restricting global supply chains, it creates uncertainties about what business can be done globally. Therefore, capital spending may be negatively affected; FDI too.

    China has a “nuclear” option against the US.
    It is possible that China may consider the dumping of some of its holdings in US Treasuries. These are the elements of such wars. Tensions between China and US are not just tariffs and trade; they could escalate into so much more.

    By 2020, we could be in a world where trade tensions are more serious.
    If there were a severe trade war in the US with its trading partners – and it becomes a real trade war that escalates with retaliation – at some point, the market reaction is not going to be a correction but a bear market, says Roubini. The impact on business and consumer confidence will be significant, he adds.
     
  8. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    4,022
    Likes Received:
    17
    China implemented retaliatory tariffs on some imports from the U.S. Friday, state media reported, immediately after new U.S. duties had taken effect.

    The move signals the start of a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies, after President Donald Trump’s administration had initially made good on threats to impose steep tariffs on Chinese goods.

    At midnight Washington time, the U.S. imposed new tariffs on $34 billion of annual imports from China. This prompted Beijing to respond in kind with levy tariffs on 545 items of U.S. imports — also worth $34 billion, state-run newspaper The China Daily reported Friday.
     
  9. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    4,022
    Likes Received:
    17
    The U.S. slapped levies on $34 billion of China’s exports at midnight Thursday, the first tangible shot in a trade battle both sides are preparing to keep fighting for months if not years.

    In Beijing, a few minutes later, China’s Commerce Ministry issued a statement, accusing the U.S. of “launching the largest trade war in economic history to date.” In response, it said, China is “being forced to strike back as necessary.”

    Though the statement didn’t say outright China’s retaliatory tariffs were taking effect, ministry officials earlier said plans called for doing so immediately following the U.S.

    President Xi Jinping has instructed various levels of government to get ready for a full-bore trade war, according to Chinese officials. “With his tariff threats, Trump is posing an unprecedented challenge to the leadership,” said Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University, referring to President Donald Trump.
     
  10. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    4,022
    Likes Received:
    17
    SINGAPORE (July 6): OCBC Investment Research is downgrading the Singapore residential sector rating to “neutral” from “overweight” previously, as RHB Research places its “overweight” sector call and recommendations under review.

    Meanwhile, Maybank Kim Eng reiterates its “positive” view and developer recommendations.

    This comes as all three research houses now expect to see a slowdown in transaction volumes and overall prices as a result of the new measures, and negative stock reactions resulting from the latest property cooling measures announced on Thursday.

    To recap, a five percentage point increase in stamp duty for some home buyers – specifically those buying their second or more properties – have been introduced effective today, alongside tighter housing loans in Singapore’s bid to keep price increase in line with economic fundamentals.

    In a Friday report, OCBC lead analyst Andy Wong explains the latest cooling measures were beyond base case expectations, which has led to a change in the research house’s previous thesis that the positive sector outlook presented a buying opportunity in the midst of a sector correction.

    Coupled with current macro uncertainties, he now expects near-term sentiment to sour with share prices of local property developers to see an immediate negative knee-jerk reaction.

    Following the downgrade to “neutral”, the research house will be reviewing its recommendations of the developers under its coverage.

    RHB analyst Vijay Natarajan opines that the higher additional buyer stamp duty (ABSD) rates are likely to impact the high-end property segment more when compared to the mass market and mid-tier segments, as foreign demand accounts for the bulk of demand or 30-60% in the high-end segment.

    In his view, the announcement came as an “unexpected negative surprise” which he believes is bound to spook the property market.

    While RHB is reviewing its sector call and stock recommendations, Natarajan says his initial take is that property prices are likely to stagnate around current levels for the next few quarters, and could potentially see more downward pressure going forward.

    Although Maybank analyst Derrick Heng is anticipating negative stock reactions for developers with large exposure to the Singapore residential market, he thinks downside risk could be limited considering the weak share price performance of developer stocks in recent months.

    For instance, Heng notes that City Developments (CDL) as a sector benchmark is currently trading at a 21% discount to its RNAV – which is slightly above its 10-year average discount of 19%, and implies a share price downside of just 10% to its -1 standard deviation discount of 31%.

    Nonetheless, the analyst is expecting the revised measures to have a dampening effect on investment demand as he estimates half of private housing transactions to come from first-time local home buyers.

    “If we classify all transactions from Singaporean investors, foreigners, PRs and companies as investment demand, the revised measures could potentially weigh on half of market demand. This could bring downside risks to our volumes and ASP outlook,” says Heng.

    Maybank continues to rate large-cap developers UOL, CDL and CapitaLand at “buy” with target prices of $10.85, $14.20 and $4.10, respectively.

    As at 12.28pm, shares in UOL, CDL and CapitaLand are trading between 5-17% lower at $6.88, $9.35 and $3.02.

    Among the mid-caps, the research house’s developer picks rated “buy” are GuocoLand, Bukit Sembawang, Ho Bee Land and Oxley with the respective target prices of $1.99, $5.81, $2.36 and 41 cents.
     
  11. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2013
    Messages:
    3,791
    Likes Received:
    9
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Singapura
    good morning.. STI deep dive to hunt for RED submarine
     
  12. DeepBlue

    DeepBlue Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2013
    Messages:
    759
    Likes Received:
    0
    "Huang Di Bu Ji, Tai Jian JI"
     
  13. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    4,022
    Likes Received:
    17
    President Donald Trump said Thursday the U.S. could soon impose tariffs on more than $500 billion in Chinese imports, about the amount of total goods the U.S. imported from China last year.

    Trump made his comments hours before fresh tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports were scheduled to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern time Friday.

    Speaking to reporters on Air Force One on his way to a rally in Montana, Trump gave a running total of what he will seek, assuming China responds with retaliatory tariffs, starting with the $34 billion in levies that kick in Friday.

    “Then you have another 16 [billion] in two weeks and then as you know we have 200 billion in abeyance and then after the 200 billion we have 300 billion in abeyance. OK? So we have 50 plus 200 plus almost 300,” he said, according to reports by Reuters and CNBC, adding “It’s only on China.”

    A massive escalation like that would likely rattle financial markets worldwide, and could have costly repercussions for U.S. manufacturers and consumers.

    The $34 billion in tariffs that take effect Friday are the first part of tariffs on a total of $50 billion of Chinese goods that Trump announced in June. The second part, with tariffs on $16 billion in Chinese imports, is scheduled to take effect in two weeks.

    China has warned it will retaliate in kind. On Thursday, China’s customs bureau said it would impose tariffs on $34 billion in U.S. goods immediately after the Trump administration’s tariffs take effect Friday, according to the Wall Street Journal.
     
  14. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,517
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,517
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    Property stocks kena this tomorrow?


    aa1009g.gif
     
  16. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    4,022
    Likes Received:
    17
    SINGAPORE: The Government on Thursday (Jul 5) announced it would raise Additional Buyer Stamp Duty (ABSD) rates and tighten Loan-to-Value (LTV) limits on residential property purchases in an effort to "cool the property market and keep price increases in line with economic fundamentals".

    In a press release jointly sent by the finance and national development ministries, as well as the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the authorities said the ABSD will be raised by 5 percentage points for citizens and permanent residents buying second and subsequent homes, and by 10 percentage points for entities.

    image: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/ima...c2811b56fc818c7a4cb3cc022bb/cc/absd-rates.jpg

    [​IMG]

    An additional ABSD of 5 per cent, which is non-remittable under the Remission Rules, will also be introduced for developers purchasing residential properties for housing development.

    LTV limits will be tightened by 5 percentage points for all housing loans granted by financial institutions, the release stated.

    The authorities noted that private residential prices increased by 9.1 per cent over the past year.

    "The sharp increase in prices, if left unchecked, could run ahead of economic fundamentals and raise the risk of a destabilising correction later, especially with rising interest rates and the strong pipeline of housing supply," they said.
     
  17. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    4,022
    Likes Received:
    17
    SINGAPORE (July 5): ST Engineering aims to grow its Smart City revenue of $1 billion to more than double by 2022.

    The group also plans to grow its core and other business segments with CAGR of 2-3x global GDP growth rate over the next five years, and expects that two-thirds of its revenue growth will be from global markets by 2022.

    ST Engineering’s strong order book of $13.4 billion as at end March, providing stability and visibility. Out of this, $3.2 billion is expected to be delivered in the remaining months of April to Dec.

    In FY17, Aerospace contributed 51% of group pre-tax profit, followed by Electronics at 34%, Land Systems at 14%, and Marine & Others at 1%.

    This week, the group announced the divestment of 25% stake in its indirect associate, Airbus Helicopters SE Asia (AHSA) to JV partner, Airbus Helicopters SAS for EUR9.125 million ($14 million) in cash.

    AHSA was set up between ST Engineering and Airbus Helicopters in 1977 to provide helicopter sales, repair, overhaul, logistics and product support services.

    The divestment is a result of ST Engineering’s ongoing business review to streamline capabilities and optimise resources within its aerospace sector.

    To be sure, ST Engineering’s share price has corrected by about 12% from its peak of $3.70 in mid April and is now trading at 17.5 times forward P/E with a forecast dividend yield of 4.7%.

    In at least the past five years, the group has been paying out full year dividends of 15 cents per share; from FY13-FY16 a portion of this was paid as a “special dividend”.
     
  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,517
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    [​IMG]

    This is her 6-Mth Daily chart.
    This drop started from 3.58 and ended at 3.02 yesterday.
    Most likely, she is rebounding for her Dividend Run... 10.7 cts XD on 26 July.
    Based on fibonacci retracement figures, if her rebound is going to be 50% of her last downmove, it will end at $3.30.
    If 61.8%...then it will end at 3.36-3.37.
    But based on recent price action whenever she rebounded after hitting a bottom but without the benefit of a dividend payout ahead,
    her bounce would end at 3.22 to 3.27 region. If add 10.7 cts to that, we get 3.33 to 3.38.
     
  19. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    4,022
    Likes Received:
    17
  20. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,517
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    Looking good. Hit 3.14. Now 3.11 : 3.12.
    Shortcovering rally ignited.
    But those who bargain hunted from 3.02 onwards on the way up will be taking profits.
    These people will slow down the advance of the stock's recovery.
     
Loading...

Share This Page