The Trading Floor - July 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Jun 30, 2018.


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  1. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 12): DBS Vickers Securities is maintaining its “hold” call on Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) with a lower target price of $2.58 compared to $2.60 previously, after lowering FY19-20F earnings by 21-35% on slower residential property sales from the group’s Bidadari development, The Woodleigh Residences.

    This comes after recent news of property cooling measures, which has led DBS to believe property sales and recognition The Woodleigh Residences will now be backend-loaded towards FY21 on the back of cooling demand.

    Further, the research house notes that SPH’s latest set of 3Q18 results indicated higher-than-expected costs the media segment due to the continued decline of advertising revenue. Based on the cautious GDP growth outlook as of late due to ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, Singapore’s two largest export markets, it also expects ad spend to be muted going forward.

    In a Wednesday report, analyst Alfie Yeo says his adjusted FY20F earnings projections are below consensus after recognising slower-than-expected residential sales for SPH’s Bidadari property project going forward, following the recent adjustment in Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) and Loan-to-Value limits (LTV).

    Nonetheless, he believes The Seletar Mall will be injected into SPH REIT eventually, which should offer relief and support to SPH’s share price and dividend per share (DPS), in his view.

    “We value SPH's core newspaper and magazine operations at 58 cents per share based on discounted cash flow model, SPH’s property business at $1.63, and net cash and investments at 37 cents,” says Yeo of the revised target price, which is based on sum-of-parts valuation.

    “A strong economic recovery and pick-up in consumption will lead to adex improvement, which is a key risk to our view. Sale of its investments, such as M1 or spin-off of The Seletar Mall could also lead to higher special DPS expectations,” he adds.
     
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Current market is a window to buy before everyone shifts their focus back to earnings season.
     
  3. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers
     
  4. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    SPH...

    Profits up but due to lower impairment only. Revenue in fact fell.
    For a company to grow, revenue must go up.
    If higher profits is attributable to higher revenue, there is growth.
    But if higher profits is attributable to lower cost and/or due to one-time gains, then there is no growth and if this continues,
    the company is in trouble. A rise in profits due to lower costs is only a temporary relief. Macam like kicking the can further
    down the road. Becoz there is a limit to how much cost you can cut. When cut until nothing left to cut ler and revenue is
    still the same or lower, then the company will be flat.

    Having said the above, last week, she was amongst institutions' Top 10 BUY.
    Need to see if institutions are still buying.
    If not, then we can expect her to trade to the downside with nothing left to support her price.
    Her next dividend payout... 9 cts last year... is in Dec.
     
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  6. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 11): Singapore Press Holdings reported 3Q18 earnings increased 64.3% to $47.4 million from $28.9 million in 3Q17 on the back of lower impairment charges.

    Howeve, total revenue for the quarter was 3.8% lower at $250.1 million from $260.0 million a year ago.

    This was mainly due to an 8.0% y-o-y decrease in revenue from the group’s media segment to $167.9 million and a 2.4% y-o-y decrease in its property segment to $60.1 million, but partially offset by a 38.5% increase in its others segment to $22.0 million.

    Impairment of goodwill and intangibles dropped 40.9% to $22.3 million from $37.8 million last year.

    During the quarter, the group recorded a profit of $2.16 million from its share of results of associates and joint ventures, compared to a loss of $0.56 million in 3Q17.

    As at May 31, the group’s cash and cash equivalents stood at $236.3 million.

    Ng Yat Chung, CEO of SPH says, “As we continue to sharpen our Media capabilities in the face of digital disruption, we are seeing early signs of a slower decline of our Media revenue.”

    “At the same time, we are making efforts to diversify, with new growth thrusts. Our new strategy is to focus on the acquisition of cash-yielding real estate assets overseas. We are also preparing the Aged Care business for overseas expansion,” adds Ng.
     
  7. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SPH REPORTS 64% RISE IN THIRD QUARTER NET PROFIT OF $47.4 MILLION

    ● Digital-first strategy gaining traction with growing digital subscriptions and e-paper readership
    ● Management bench strengthened for digital transformation
    ● Real estate asset management strategy progressing with deals being actively pursued

    SINGAPORE, 11 July 2018 – Singapore Press Holdings Limited’s (SPH) third quarter net profit attributable to shareholders rose 64.3% to $47.4 million compared with the same period a year ago. This was due to lower impairment charges, the Group said in the results announcement for the third quarter ended 31 May 2018 (3Q 2018) today.
     
  8. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 11): Singapore Telecommunications was around back when the telegraph was still cool. Now the 139-year-old company is experimenting with video games as a way to raise its profile with millennials.

    The telecom giant yesterday announced it plans to start a competitive gaming league this year and will eventually sponsor its own team.

    Esports may already be big business in markets ranging from the US to China, but it’s going to be bigger. Goldman Sachs Group estimates global sales will reach US$3 billion ($4.1 billion) annually by 2022, with an audience that rivals the current viewership of the National Football League in the US.

    The foray into gaming is the brainchild of Arthur Lang, the former Morgan Stanley banker who took over Singtel’s international operations last April, looking to diversify from traditional businesses where competition is toughening. City regulators in 2016 granted a fourth telecom license to rival TPG Telecom and streaming services like Netflix Inc. are pulling viewers away from Singtel’s television channels.

    “Telecom companies around the world are facing certain challenges with the changes that we’re seeing in the digital economy. Singtel and other companies are preparing to adjust to that,” said Rohit Sipahimalani, joint head of the portfolio strategy and risk group at Singapore’s state investment firm, Temasek Holdings, which owns almost half of the company.

    To remake itself, Singtel has bought cyber security and digital marketing businesses, but it still gets about 76% of its sales from telecom services. The shares have lost more than a quarter of their value since their 2015 peak, although they’ve had a bounce in the last week as investors snapped up defensive shares amid trade-war jitters.

    Lang, 46, said he doesn’t play video games, but in an interview last week at Singtel’s headquarters, he laid out a rationale for the new venture.

    “This is really an effort to engage our customers,” he said. Esports are becoming mainstream and will draw in millennials, who make up most of the region’s 600 million subscribers, he said.

    Lang started making moves soon after coming over from property developer CapitaLand, where he was chief financial officer. In November, he signed a deal that made Singtel the only provider in Asia offering Razer Inc.’s gaming smartphone at retail stores.

    In March, he announced a plan to connect all of Singtel’s mobile wallet services in a single network, so customers will be able to use their phones to make payments at shops just about anywhere in Southeast Asia.

    “I knew after even a month of visiting these companies, there was something we had to do,” he said, referring to Singtel’s subsidiaries in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and India. “If we want to target the millennial customer, how we can engage them more is really talking about new content.”

    One model for the gaming plan came from South Korea, where SK Telecom Co. has been using esports as a marketing tool for years, sponsoring a team that dominates play in “League of Legends,” a game that last year attracted 58 million viewers for its world finals.

    [​IMG]

    Singtel is starting its gaming push by holding its first regional esports championship in early October at Singapore’s Suntec convention center, with the event broadcast on its channels and partner platforms. The company plans to sell 3,000 tickets for the 3-day tournament.

    Players will compete for a prize pool of US$300,000 and games will include Valve Corp’s “Dota 2", Activision Blizzard Inc's “Hearthstone”, and an international version of Tencent Holdings’ “Honour of Kings” marketed as “Arena of Valour". The plan is to add more tournaments each year.

    Singtel also said it will recruiting a team to represent Singapore in international competitions, such as the 2022 Asian Games in Hangzhou, China, where gaming will be a medal sport along with swimming, soccer, and track and field events.

    Lang declined to say how much money Singtel had budgeted for the project, but he currently has 9 employees working to get the business off the ground.

    “Singtel needs to find something beyond the pure carrier business,” said Sachin Mittal, an analyst at DBS Group Holdings. “I think they’re moving in the right direction, but the gestation period for these new businesses is long.”
     
  9. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 11): Manulife Centre on Bras Basah Road is targeted by British property group Chelsfield for $550 million, according to media reports.

    This translates to a psf price of $2,300 on net lettable area (NLA) of 242,000 sf.

    In a Tuesday note, DBS Group Research says the potential sale of Manulife Centre at a mid-2% yield based on NPI (net property income) is a continuation of the trend of fringe CBD office properties being sold on tight yields contrary to investor expectations that Singapore office cap rates should expand in a rising interest rate environment.

    Recent fringe CBD office transactions include the disposal by CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT) of Twenty Anson to AEW on a 2.7% NPI yield as well as a 50% interest One George Street and Wilkie Edge on 3.2% and 3.4% exit yields respectively, according to DBS.

    The research house believes these transactions highlight the desirability of Singapore office properties as an attractive investment class by global investors contrary to equity investors who have marked down office REITs.

    “Office REITs currently trade below book value which we believe is unjustified given that the better located Grade A office buildings owned by the REITs are being valued by the REITs using a 3.6-4.10% cap rate,” says leas analyst Mervin Song.

    In addition, prospects of a multi-year recovery in office rents given easing supply pressures over the next 3-4 years should translate to office REITs trading at least at book value if not a premium.

    Evidence of the strong recovery rents is the reported 4.1% q-o-q increase in Grade A rents to $10 psf/month in June, up from lows of $8.95 psf/month in 1H17. This faster than expected increase in rents also provides upside risk to DBS’s DPU estimates.

    With evidence that office values in Singapore are holding up if not increasing, and rents are on an upward trend, DBS is maintaining its overweight stance on office REITs with CapitaLand Commercial Trust (“buy” with target price of $2.12) as its top pick.
     
  10. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers
     
  11. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    good morning.. Ang Ang day
     
  12. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    result AMC .......
     
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Dai Lole...

    Can post SPH results?
    Thanks.
     
  14. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  15. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    U.S. readying new tariffs on up to $200 billion of Chinese goods

    Published: July 10, 2018 6:42 p.m. ET

    WASHINGTON — The White House said it would assess tariffs on a further $200 billion in Chinese goods, deepening the dispute with Beijing, while sending a message to European trading partners that the U.S. won’t back away from trade fights.

    The new round of tariffs comes on top of two others and is bound to be met with threats of retaliation from Beijing. Officials in both nations say there are currently no negotiations scheduled, but a senior administration official said the U.S. was willing to talk with China about a resolution.

    “We are trying to get China to alleviate its unfair practices,” the official said.

    Previous discussions between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese economic envoy Liu He didn’t come close to resolving the dispute. The new tariffs won’t take effect for at least two months, administration officials said, giving U.S. industry time to comment on the products selected for levies.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2018
  16. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    DBS...

    IF the move from 25.01 to 26.47 is Wave 1, then possible targets for Wave 2 are:

    38.2% - 25.91
    50.0% - 25.74
    61.8% - 25.56

    These are fibonacci retracement targets used by TA practitioners.
     
  18. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 10): Credit Suisse says the Singapore market is the “place to be” for investors given it is trading at favourable valuations, offers a blend of cyclical exposure and is a beneficiary of higher interest rates.

    At present, the Singapore market has a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 12.4 times which is below the 10-year average of 13.3 times, thanks to the recent pullback.

    “Rising interest rates and higher oil prices are driving a rebound in earnings growth (15% in 2018),” notes Credit Suisse in a media statement on Monday.

    “In terms of sectors, we expect banks to lead, given strong credit growth, improving asset quality and margin expansion, leading to an uplift in return on equity (ROE). Conversely, rising interest rates are likely to continue to weigh on real estate investment trusts (REITs),” it adds.

    The bank has added Singapore to its preferred markets alongside China and South Korea, and remains negative on Thailand, Malaysia and India.

    As for currency, the bank is maintaining its positive view on the SGD and forecasts the USD/SGD at 1.31 over the next 12 months, supported mainly by robust economic growth.

    It also expects a strengthening of the EUR could work in the SGD's favour, given the positive correlation observed between the USD Index and the USD/SGD.

    On a global scale, Credit Suisse expects equity markets have upside potential in 2H18 with strong economic growth expected to boost earnings, as it believes trade fractions are likely to have micro rather than macro implications.

    The bank continues to favour equities over fixed income, but recommends active equity investment strategies to limit exposure in the event that volatility returns. It also expects to continue its implementation of more rotations across sectors and regions in 2018 than before, with sector preferences including energy, technology and financials.

    Noting “clear signs” that economic growth is set to accelerate across major regions in the second half of 2018, John Woods, CIO, Asia Pacific, Credit Suisse, believes this will create a favorable climate for equities and certain commodities.

    However, he cautions that investors should remain alert to the potential impacts of trade frictions and other political and policy risks.

    “We strongly recommend a well-diversified investment portfolio and an active investment strategy to ensure flexibility in periods of volatility. In this environment, we also expect central banks in the US and Europe to take further steps towards normalising monetary policy,” says Woods.
     
  19. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    good morning
     
  20. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers
     
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