The Trading Floor - July 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Jun 30, 2018.


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  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    You can queue for some at 3.20 since price at 3.19 : 3.20 now and is not freefalling.
    So can queue and wait to be taken.
     
  2. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    Yep gota re-deploy and re-coup...

    que to short... when price start to break... ?
     
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Sis Sotong...

    Look into SHORTing her from now till November to recover some losses. Dec is her next dividend payout of 6.8 cts.
     
  4. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    [​IMG]



    From the look of things, it does look like she will on XD gap down and after that never look back. In all likelihood, she will trade to the downside to revisit
    her Last Low at 3.02. And this time round when she retest 3.02, there isn' t anymore a 10.7 cts dividend to support her price. Meaning she will likely break
    below it to show us a New Low. $2.90? $2.80? Even lower than that? We let the market show us.
     
  5. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 26): CGS-CIMB Research and DBS Vickers Securities are maintaining their “add” and “buy” calls with the respective price targets of $2.08 and $2.30, after the REIT manager on Wednesday posted a 2Q DPU of 2.47 cents which came in line with both research houses’

    In a Wednesday report, CGS-CIMB analyst Lock Mun Yee says she continues to like the stock as it continues to see robust office leasing interest, which is evident from the 187,000 sq ft of leases which it signed in 2Q with tenants in technology, media and telecom (TMT) as well as real estate, co-working and consultancy sectors.

    This comes despite lower y-o-y office revenue in 2Q, which was due to transitory downtime from replacement leases that were signed earlier, of which a majority were larger floor plates.

    On the retail front, the analyst also notes rising tenant sales and shopper traffic.

    With development activities the Suntec office and 9 Penang Road, as well as the construction of 477 Collins Street on-track with their schedules, Lock believes these properties should add to the REIT’s income stream once completed, with the potential to increase leverage to fund capex requirements going forward.

    The analyst has however marginally adjusted down her FY19-20F DPU estimates to factor in the higher sinking fund contributions at Suntec City, resulting in a lower target price compared to $2.12 previously.

    DBS’s view on the REIT is more bullish with its street-high target price compared to the $1.88 consensus. According to the research house, this comes pegged to a price that would allow any potential bidder to generate a 10% internal rate of return (IRR).

    “While we are not privy to any potential takeover offers, our analysis was done to reflect market speculation of a Suntec privatisation over the years,” explains DBS analyst Mervin Song in a Thursday report.

    The way Song sees it, Suntec deserves to trade towards $2.30 considering how office buildings and shopping malls in Singapore hav been recently sold on 1.7-2.7% and 3-4% exit yields, respectively, which is below the cap rate of 3.75-4% and 5% used to value Suntec’s office and retail properties.

    “With office rents expected to be on a multi-year upturn, this typically coincides with office REITs such as Suntec, trading at a premium to book,” says the analyst.

    “Passing rents at Suntec City Mall of $10-11 psf/mth are at a significant discount to other suburban malls of up to $17-18 psf/mth. We believe as Suntec remixes its tenant mix and picks the low-hanging fruits such as placing children stores next to the playground rather than at opposite ends of the mall, the resultant higher foot traffic, tenant sales and improving rents should act as re-rating catalysts,” he adds.
     
  6. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    mission completed... mixed feeling... a sign of relieve... n a sign of grief n per-cher-ness .....

    Dividend covered the interest... and cushion some losses... still "all bak kar" dou.... :confused::(
     
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Dont count on it, Sis.
    This was precisely what held me back from cutting this position.
    "Seems to be holding up"... and I said that for the past 16 months already!!!
    Enough is enough. Not going to let this once-upon-a-time-fund manager's darling break my heart anymore.
    Looking back over the last one year, how many times did we say "should have cut when she was at $XXXX" ???
    How many times ? PLENTY OF TIMES !!!
    Now 3.18 : 3.19.
    Maybe later 3.15 : 3.16.
    Maybe tomorrow.
    Maybe next week.
    We wont see 3.33 : 3.34 again for a long time.
     
  8. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    have some holding for a while... will see my report card later...

    seem to be holding at 3.20 for now
     
  9. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers
     
  10. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Sis Sotong,

    If you collected dividends in Aug and Dec last year, the dividends can cover the interest.
    I held my positions since Mar 2017 till now.
    Dividends not only covered interest but also left me with 5k to buffer loss.
     
  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  12. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    wow....thanks ... let me try to work out.. n see face will go :confused:
     
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Dun have. For interest charges, you need to work it out manually.
    Use this formula as a rough guide.

    During the period when you were holding her, take the highest closing price and the lowest closing price and divide by two to get a median price.
    Multiply this median price by the number of shares you have.
    The total value of your shareholdings... multiply by 3.9% and divide by 365 and then multiply by the number of days you have this position.
    That's your interest.
    Next is take your average BUY price and add to your average SELL price and multiply by the number of shares you have and then multiply by 0.1%.
    That's your com.
     
  14. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    So sad... guess i will take the dividend ... n queue 7 early 8 early tml... to dispose all.

    btw, is there anywhere in IG platform that we are able to see our "accumulated holding cost" for each transaction?

    congrates on your chicken run...SIA ;)
     
  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Sis Sotong...

    I expect SingTel to gap down tomorrow by 9 to 11 cts.
    And I think after that, she wont look back... and will continue to fall becoz many diehards and fans of this counter have given up on her.
     
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Sis Sotong,

    I already CUT all my positions at 3.33 yesterday and took a huge loss.
    My only regret is that I didnt cut last year same time in August before XD.
    For many months, I have been waiting for this dividend run to lift the price as high as possible for me to cut with lesser losses.
    From Last Low at 3.02 to yesterday's 3.36, she bounced 34 cts which is more than 3 times her dividend of only 10.7 cts.
    I am thankful for this bounce. Becoz it enabled me to pull back some 39.9k. This bounce reduced my loss by 39.9k.
    And now I am waiting for XD tomorrow to see what she wants to do first before I decide whether to trade her from the SHORT side.
     
  17. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    Bro NB,

    Sinkie ..... price cant sustain 3.38 ... and fall back to 3.32 range. In your opinion... is it gona be "dead" by tml...?
     
  18. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers....
     
  19. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (July 25): ARA Trust Management (Suntec) Limited announced that Suntec REIT’s DPU for 2Q18 had declined by 0.8% to 2.474 cents, compared to 2.493 cents in 2Q17.

    This brings 1H18 DPU to 4.907 cents, 0.2% lower than 4.918 cents in the previous year.

    During the quarter, the group recorded gross revenue of $90.5 million, 3.7% higher than $87.3 million a year ago.

    This was contributed by higher revenue from Suntec Singapore to $22.9 million and an increase in retail revenue from Suntec City mall to $25.7 million.

    However, this was partially offset by lower office revenue, which was mainly from Suntec City Office primarily due to transitory downtime from replacement leases commencing progressively from Mar 2018.

    Hence, 2Q18 net property income (NPI) was 2.2% higher at $60.7 million from $59.4 million last year.

    Income contribution from joint ventures increased by 3.7% to $22.6 million, compared to $21.8 million in the previous year.

    Total distributable income for the quarter of $66.0 million was in line with 2Q17.

    Chan Kong Leong, CEO of the manager says, “In the second quarter of 2018, we renewed and signed approximately 187,000 sq ft of leases, reducing the 2018 leases expiring to only 5.1% of NLA. We will continue our proactive asset management to strengthen our office proposition and maintain the high occupancy level for our Singapore office portfolio.”


    upload_2018-7-25_8-41-50.png
     
  20. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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