The Trading Floor - July 2015

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Jul 1, 2015.


Draft saved Draft deleted
  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2018
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]







    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    g20.gif

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]......[​IMG]

    [​IMG]...[​IMG][​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG][​IMG]
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2017
  4. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    [​IMG] Food-charkwayteow.jpg Food - Oyster-Omelette-frying.gif [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: May 18, 2018
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    [​IMG][​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    [​IMG][​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2016
  6. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    3,994
    Likes Received:
    17
    in that case, I early early open new thread for August 2015 ....... so all these reports will be easier to refer to next month w/o switching thread ........

    here we go ..........

    New thread for August 2015


    http://www.sniper-academy.com/threads/128716-The-Trading-Floor-August-2015



     
  7. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    3,994
    Likes Received:
    17
    teok lah .........

    The STI reserve list, comprising the five highest ranking non-constituents of the STI by market capitalisation, will be (in order of size) UOL Group, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings, CapitaLand Commerical Trust, Suntec REIT and Genting Hong Kong. Companies on the reserve list will replace any constituents that become ineligible as a result of corporate actions, before the next review.
     
  8. Luna

    Luna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2013
    Messages:
    2,855
    Likes Received:
    0
    Strategy: Citi advises investors to pay close attention to signs of a technical recession in Singapore's Jul/Aug GDP data and notes "clearer signs" of job market softening in the city-state, with job creation in the first half amounting to just 9,600, down sharply from the 56,000 jobs created in the same period last year. It estimates at least 20,000-25,000 jobs need to be created each year to prevent the resident unemployment rate from rising. It adds policymakers in Singapore will likely watch closely any sharp rise in the unemployment rate among citizens ahead of the elections, expected in Sept.

    Singapore on Thurs said the nation's jobless rate edged up to 2% in the second quarter from 1.8% in the first quarter.

    From Alan luo
     
  9. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    You mean Simi Sai also can come out. aa2.gif


    [​IMG][​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2016
  10. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    I think one of the contenders in the reserve list is Miss Yang...teok boh?
    Maybe Miss Yang hired a monkey to whack Noble to kick it into the Cold Palace? aa1.gif
     
  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    GooLamPhar...

    I was watching the price action all day.
    What I saw was... one big guy who die die just want to sell his substantial holdings.
    I would use 3 words to describe his selling...

    Merciless
    Indiscriminate
    Senseless

    But at the same time, there were big buyers. Not as big as the big seller though but
    their Buy-Up trade size was not small either... 100 lots... 200 lots... 500 lots.

    A couple of times, when the big guy stopped selling, the price rose 2 to 3 bids.
    Then when the big guy resumed selling, the price went back down.
    But when he stopped selling, the price rose again.
    Until the big guy reappeared to sell.
    And this happened many times over.
    So much so that I told myself the day when this big guy stops selling is the day this
    counter will rise and rise without hindrance. And when that day come, I hope I will
    have the capital to Ka Ka HOOT to ride her recovery. When she has bottomed out,
    the 1st 10 bids will be easy to make. Which makes her a very good tenant stock when
    she has bottomed out.

    She will go XD on Monday. Dividend is 5.5 cts.
    Assuming that Chow Ang Moh has left, we need to looksee first whether there is any
    post-XD selling by investors who want to get out of this counter to go elsewhere. Let
    all these people who want out...get out first. When the last of these people are out,
    she will bottom out. If the Ang Moh is still selling, the bottom will be reached when
    he is done with the selling.
     
  12. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    3,994
    Likes Received:
    17
    boh lah ..... not that bad yet ......

    noball reporting result on 13/Aug ..... now coy blackout cannot do share buyback ........ shortists take advantage maybe ........... also ppl fan the fire by saying that noball may drop from STI component since it mkt cap below par ..... and the reserves' mkt cap now higher than noball .......... but review is conducted end of Sep lah ......

    want it to die simi reasons also can come out .......
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2015
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    Me think its most likely those Si Ang Moh Kau cho luan by cashing out.
    Becoz FA-wise, her fundamentals have improved.
     
  14. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    Bro furion,

    What a write-up! Only an accountant can do that. Good job.
    But some of the things you wrote, me Liak Boh Kew. aa12.gif
    But its okay. Agar Agar can get the general drift.

    One more thing I want to add...

    If a substantial shareholder had obtained a loan and pledged his stocks in Noble
    as collateral at a time when Noble was higher, he better pray the bank dont give
    him a 1-hr notice to pay up or have his stocks sold in the open market. Then we
    will have a replay of Blumont-Asiasons-LionGold Horror Movie.

    By the way, so far...any House imposed a trading curb on Noble?
    Once it happens, history has taught us that a House imposing a trading curb is
    macam that House issuing a Death Certificate for that stock.
     
  15. DeepBlue

    DeepBlue Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2013
    Messages:
    755
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hi Bros

    Please post if you have any news relating to GLP.

    This should provide evidence for the sell down.

    Appreciate it.

    Together we Prosper.:grouphug:
     
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    I hope the Ang Moh sellers are gone for good and that they are done with whatever pullout they want to do.
    On Monday, we all open eyes big big and see whether those freaking Ang Mohs are still around wielding their
    Tua Kees macam like light sabre lidat to kill whoever are standing in the BUY queues of our index counters.
     
  17. lexanne

    lexanne Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2013
    Messages:
    10,745
    Likes Received:
    44
    :cryin:
     
  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,461
    Likes Received:
    435
    Gender:
    Male
    UOB...

    I thought she rebounded to 22.30 : 22.31 right?
    Then saw her pullback to 22.15 : 22.16.
    Pooback by so much.
    Lesson to learn is take profits then reload.
     
  19. furion

    furion Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2013
    Messages:
    1,637
    Likes Received:
    1
    come i start first. too long never post here scared people forget me


    Short-sellers cause Noble shares to plunge 14%

    Above is a headline in the Straits Times.

    I read the headline, but i didn't see any real evidence in the article indicating that there is any short selling going on presently in Noble. I would think the smart guys who shorted the stock earlier, would be much more likely to be covering (for profits here) than selling additional shares. Maybe they're still negative at today's share price level, but no one is going to short additional shares unless he thinks the share will go to zero. Even then, with so much volatility, any "short" would be worried about the stability of his borrow and would not want to add to "recall" risk (the risk the share lender wants his shares back so he can sell).

    Additionally, Muddy Waters et al neversaid the company was insolvent-- they just saw it as overvalued, and if that was the case when they wrote their reports, it's less the case now. One of the reports actually put a share price target on Noble. We are still well above that level in percentage terms, but in cents it is getting close.

    The Straits Times article only has one bit of evidence about short selling, "A remisier says" ... very weak evidence unless he is handling orders for short sellers.

    IMO: Noble's fight is no longer against short sellers, who I presume to be covering shorts at a profit.

    The market's verdict seems to be the share buyback is an ill conceived strategy. From a bondholder perspective, its really a negative development by Noble (increases gearing, uses up cash) .

    Here's a summary of my view of Noble. The previous CEO was bent on building out assets-- following the pattern of other very successful traders such as Cargill, Bunge, Glencore which became operators of assets.

    Unfortunately, he made lousy acquisitions and lost his job. Maybe the right strategy but poor execution and awful timing. The new CEO came in with an opposite strategy (asset light as he calls it) Bring in top traders ( high salary), many from his former firm Goldman Sachs and make profit with brainpower. From a bondholder's perspective that has been good, because commodity assets keep dropping in value. Bondholders should be glad Noble has been selling assets rather than buying. Over the longer term though, the history of paper traders in commodity markets has not been good. They have come and gone over the years, so I have some doubts whether asset light is a good long term strategy.

    Right now, Noble's share is probably being driven down more by panic and fear than fundamentals. But there are fundamentals that are a concern. The company's asset light strategy won't work if Noble is downgraded by credit agencies and has a high cost of funds.

    Where we stand now, is the short sellers are likely leaving Noble with trading profit, despite Noble's aggressive share buy back. So much for teaching them a lesson! Those selling shares now are probably real money investors as well trader types who bought the dip in prices and now are bailing out.

    In the bond market, holders of Noble are seeing that share price plunge and thinking that "where there is smoke there is often fire." Many are changing their view on the credit due entirely to the plunging share price and selling their bonds.

    In order for Noble to get the faith of investors back, Noble is going to need to show some reassuring performances from its traders soon. How much running room they have I don't know, but my inclination is that they can survive at least one bad earnings report. Historically, it takes a bit of time between a change in bond prices and share prices( in the financial markets) to make counterparts in the physical commodity trading business spooked. That is the point of no return for Noble. Once a commodity trader's counterparts start pulling in their lines for him, things get bleak fairly quickly.
     
  20. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2013
    Messages:
    3,771
    Likes Received:
    9
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Singapura
    but then hor, when i go USA and bring my blond partner and wear like "chi bah ban" and give the hao lian look... they also envy leh
     
Loading...

Share This Page