The Trading Floor - January 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Dec 31, 2017.


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  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Everybody join hands and legs to keep a lookout for this fellow.
    If see him quietly collecting, sound the GONG.


    Monkey.gif
     
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Our market pre-opening as of now macam no hew Dow's Friday close of -118 pts.
     
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  4. angang8

    angang8 Well-Known Member

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    Good morning and happy New Years everyone
     
  5. Kruz4ever

    Kruz4ever Well-Known Member

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    Good morning snipers
     
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    It has been a long time since I looked at the banks. So I pulled out their charts and this is what I saw.
    All 3 are on a beautiful uptrend. Their rise over the last 12 months have been nothing short of stunning.
    See their charts.

    a1.png

    a2.png a3.png

    Interest rate is set to rise in 2018. A rising interest rate environment is said to be good for the bottomlines of banks.
    So if you are stuck LONG in banks, I suppose you can wait for the price to recover back to your level.
    But if you are stuck SHORT in the banks, that one may require you to painpain just do the needful to stop the bleeding if
    the situation is hopeless. Whether the situation is indeed hopeless, will depend on each individual's assessment of the
    outlook for banks in the next 3 months. This will not be an easy decision. And will be a very painful one. And it may all
    boil down to amputating a leg or an arm to save the rest of the body. If the decision to cut is taken, cut at the next pullback
    and use the returning troops to go LONG.

    The problem with banks is that they whipsaw. Hence, perhaps one way to have damage control when you trade a bank is
    to have a trading system where you take the emotions out of the decision-making process. And how you do it is - fix the
    number of bids you are willing to allow for the price to move against you... whether it is 3 bids, 4 bids or 5 bids. Once the
    number of bids is reached, the trigger to buffer kicks in and you open a new position in the opposite direction right away
    without hesitating. In this respect, you need to train yourself to do this as purely a mechanical process. When triggered,
    just buffer. Dont let your emotions come into the picture. Becoz if you allow emotions to come in, most likely you wont do
    it. The advantage of doing the buffer is that at worst, your loss will always be limited to those 3 or 4 or 5 bids and not more.
    Doing this when you trade banks will mean you will never have to sit on those 5-figure losses. Or even 6-figures. Becoz banks
    are very wild. They can move more than a dollar within a week. And by 8 dollars within a year !!!

    UOB traded from 20.50 to 26.50 and DBS traded from 17.00 to 25.00 in 2017.

    What if UOB wants to reach $30.00 by end-2018 and DBS wants to show us $29.00 and OCBC ... $15.00 !!!
     
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    CapitaMall Trust...

    She also same story as Suntec and CCT.
    See for yourself.

    a1.jpg
     
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    CCT...

    Same story as Suntec - the price is respecting the 20-ema.
    Which is at 1.90.
    She will be paying not one but two quarters of dividends in late Jan.
    Estimated at 6.4 to 6.6 cts.


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  9. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Suntec...

    Her 20-ema is at 2.09.
    This appears to be the level to buy or as near to this price as possible.
    And I think it will be increasingly difficult to buy at the 20-ema as we are in Jan now and
    she is paying dividends.


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  10. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Happy & Vibrant as in...................... A Happy & Vibrant Erection throughout the year?
    I will drink to that !!! aa1 (2).gif



    [​IMG]
     
  11. koaladreaming

    koaladreaming Well-Known Member

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    Wishing All A Happy & Vibrant 2018 !
     
  12. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Ascendas...

    She closed at 2.62 on Friday.
    Last High was 2.76 (2 Nov 2017).

    January is her reporting month and that's when she usually runs.
    Do take note of what she did in January of 2016 though.
    Here's her chart.


    a1.jpg
     
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    SingTel...

    This is her 1-Yr Daily chart.

    a1.jpg

    Notice she tends to enter into a period of consolidation when she is undecided.
    After that, its a question of LUCK for want of a better word to describe the situation.
    LUCK becoz it all depends on whether the next thing which happens is that a fund decides to buy her up or sell her down.
    And that "LUCK" will determine if she rises or falls after that period of indecisive consolidation.
    What's next is more consolidation between 3.56 and 3.61 until a bull or bear fund appears.
    But do expect an overshoot on the downside below 3.56.
    Rocket man taunted the United States by saying the Amercians can never start a war with North Korea.
    In other words, though he didnt say it, he is calling the Americans "a barking dog which cannot bite".
    Given Trump's temperament, very unlikely he will let it pass without a response in strong words.
    An ex-US General has commented that US and North Korea are now closer to war than they have ever been.
    UN Chief also gave a RED ALERT WARNING in his New Year speech.
    So do expect a bleak start to the New Year.
    Only a monkey can make a difference to your counter.
    If one appears and he is a bull.

    So meantime, if the consolidation scenario holds true, doing cut-first-and-buy-back-on-dips is the way to go.
     
  14. Kruz4ever

    Kruz4ever Well-Known Member

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    Happy new year to all snipers. May all prosperous in the coming years ahead.
     
  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    A continuation of the story regarding price adjustment on the chart for SingTel.

    upload_2017-12-31_18-8-27.png upload_2017-12-31_18-8-53.png

    upload_2017-12-31_18-10-13.png upload_2017-12-31_18-10-34.png
    upload_2017-12-31_18-11-9.png
    upload_2017-12-31_18-11-53.png upload_2017-12-31_18-12-14.png
    upload_2017-12-31_18-12-46.png
     
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    HUAT arrrrrr !!! aa1(4a).gif


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  18. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    Happy New Year 2018 !!!!!!!!!!!!

    new-year-wishes-2018.jpg
     
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