The Trading Floor - January 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Dec 31, 2017.


Draft saved Draft deleted
  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    By month end on hindsight we will say should have added when this window opened up.
    But my battery low leh. aa1aa9.gif
     
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    Her 20-ema was at 1.93 back then.
    Now at 1.95.


    a1.jpg
     
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    CCT...

    1.93 : 1.94...
    A chance to buy her cheap.
    Follow her down and take some when she turns.
    1.93 was the level I identified as a good entry level when she was doing 1.98 : 1.99 and at that time, it did
    sure look like no chance to buy her at 1.93. But as always, when we give up waiting and buy her higher first,
    she then show us lower. NABEH.
     
  4. angang8

    angang8 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2011
    Messages:
    4,153
    Likes Received:
    37
    Good morning CCT 1.94!!!!
     
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    Ascendas...

    Reloaded at 2.77 this morn.
     
  6. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2013
    Messages:
    3,794
    Likes Received:
    9
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Singapura
    Good morning Snipers.. new week new huat!
     
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    I just took a look at the charts of the 3 banks and I want to talk about them.

    I want to talk about them becoz I know some of you have SHORTs and for all I know, you may be still LOONing them
    not knowing what to do. So you slip into a default mode of not doing anything simply becoz you dont know what to do.
    You cannot do that. Yes, we advocate the LOON DONT CUT strategy here for Sure Come stocks. But there is a caveat
    to this strategy. So long as the stock continues to trade within the known range, ie. the HIGH and LOW TIDES based
    on recent years, we do the LOON DONT CUT thingy and wait for the stock to come back up or come back down to
    where we are until our positions are in the money. But if the stock breaks out above or below the known range and
    continues on in that direction to plot a new range, it is time to wave the white flag and cut to stop the bleeding. Simply
    becoz the ground conditions have changed. When such an event occurs, what used to be the HIGH TIDE can become
    the new LOW TIDE (or Mid Tide) for the new range and what used to be the LOW TIDE can become the new HIGH TIDE
    (or Mid Tide) for the new lower range. And if you are still LOONing your LONGs or SHORTs, you are going to hurt bad
    when you eventually cut or are stopped out by margin call.

    If you have been SHORTing the banks and you have been adding SHORTs on the way up thinking that how high can
    they go...how can they possibly keep going up...surely they will one day hit a snag and Lao Hong and U-turn back down.
    Then all your SHORTs will be HUAT HUAT. And so you kept adding and adding. In 2017. What do you think will be the
    colour of your face now? Blue? Or green?

    Becoz we now know that in 2017, UOB rose by $7.00. DBS rose by $8.00. And OCBC rose by $4.00.

    So what next?

    Interest rates are set to rise in 2018. A rising interest rate environment is good for banks. It will uplift their bottomline.
    So banks' earnings are primed to rise, not fall. And I wont be surprised at all to see both UOB and DBS hitting $30 to $32 by
    Dec 2018...and OCBC reaching $16 to $18. So what is going to happen to you if you are still holding those SHORTs done
    in 2017? If you are 100% buffered, then you will not lose sleep. The paper gain from your LONGs will erase the paper loss
    from your SHORTs. Your loss will be limited to whatever paper loss you had at the time you opened your buffer positions.
    But what if you are not 100% buffered? Then I think margin call will catch up with you even before we come to the middle of
    the year.

    Becoz interest rates are set to head north in the whole of 2018, it seems the best judgment call to make is not to LOON but
    to pain pain cut when there is a pullback and stop the bleeding once and for all. To me, cut, though very painful, is the right
    thing to do becoz the reason to LOON on is no longer there. Interest rate will go up and with that, banks' earnings will also
    go up which means their stock price will go up too. That being the case, to LOON a SHORT position means to see the wound
    become bigger and bigger and the bleeding...heavier and heavier. Given the circumstances, the situation is hopeless and hence
    I wouldnt LOON anymore. And given what's going to come our way in 2018, the best judgement call to make, in my opinion, is
    to cut all SHORTs and use the returning capital to go LONG instead. By the end of the year when the banks are at their new
    Wow Wow Highs, those LONGs are going to be deep in the money. And that, will help you to recover some of your much needed
    capital to start all over.

    If you have SHORTs done at the earlier part of 2017 and you have been adding, then you are sitting on a mountain of paper losses.
    For you to see those paper losses disappear, the banks will have to go into a deep correction and give back all of their gains in 2017.
    And for that to happen, we need a recession. But look at the economic reality out there. Wu recession Boh? Does it look like we are
    going to have a recession in 2018? US, Britain, Europe, China, Asia and Australia are all still reporting growth and expecting more
    growth in 2018. So Mana Wu recession? Which means the banks are not going to give back all of their gains in 2017. Meaning your
    paper losses will still be there in the days, weeks and months ahead. That's why I said the situation is hopeless and it is time to cut.
    And then start again all over. Becoz it is the less painful of the two. The other alternative is to continue to LOON on and top up your
    account to buffer the paper loss until one fine day when no more money to top up, margin call will bite and IG will do the cutting for
    you. By which time, the loss...real loss not paper loss....will be very big.

    And now that we know what the banks are going to do in 2018, that opens up a window of opportunity for us to make money, isn't it?
    Yes, we go LONG. When to LONG? When there is a pullback. Especially when we see those very scary pullbacks when UOB or DBS
    falls by 50 to 60 cts intraday. Buy slowly. 1 lot at a time. And trade only in the primary direction which is UP and stay on course.
     
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
  9. koaladreaming

    koaladreaming Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2011
    Messages:
    2,906
    Likes Received:
    3
    Good The Cold Cold Evening Everyone :D
     
  10. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    SingTel...

    My 3.59s... I could have sold them at 3.63 and collected 10k first. NABEH.
    Really Sibeh Tulan.
    Idiot weak funds early dont sell late dont sell. Phin Phin now then come and sell when she is trying to climb up.
    Really damn pissed when big sellers choose the wrong time to sell and delay a stock's attempt to recover.
    When one big buyer buys, the price will rise. If nothing happens after that, another big buyer who has been
    planning to buy will also come in to buy. And lift the price by another few bids. Then a 3rd. Then a 4th. And so
    on. And put all that together, you get a rally. And when you look back, the stock has risen 10 cts !!! Or 15 cts !!!
    But the moment one idiot big seller dont give the stock a chance to recover by coming in at the early stage of
    the rebound to throw down his scrips and wipe out all the buyers in the queue, this type of price action will
    produce a very negative spillover effect and quash whatever bullishness there is on the ground. And whoever
    were planning to buy big will hold back their horses and stand aside first just in case got other big sellers come
    in next to dump their scrips.

    Which brings me to my next observation about trading the market.

    This is not science and I cant back it up with theory, facts or evidence. This is about my own trading experience and my own observation.
    When the price of a stock rises but we dont sell becoz the general consensus and perception is that the stock will go higher and to sell
    now would be to sell too early, and then the stock fails to go higher as widely anticipated, and instead go into a pullback, the next time
    the stock rise to that same level again and then stalls there, many people who remember the earlier lesson, will sell. And right after these
    people have sold, the stock blast off !!!

    Sounds familiar? [​IMG]
     
    $warrior likes this.
  12. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    Look at it as 2 million shares owned by weak hands.
    There is nothing wrong with the shares.
    The shares are not weak.
    The hands holding them, are.

    NABEH to those freaking hands. aa1(10).gif
     
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    Your NB is calling me or is it your short form for NABEH har? aa1a (6).gif
     
  14. ahwee

    ahwee Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2016
    Messages:
    841
    Likes Received:
    8
    NB..kenna selldown
     
  15. ahwee

    ahwee Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2016
    Messages:
    841
    Likes Received:
    8
    My buy Q was matched.... keep fingers crossed
     
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    I was upset about SingTel's pullback to 3.59.
    Hence decided to lighten up just in case I need the funds by selling Ascendas at closing.
    Ascendas is the one not paying dividends in this reporting.

    upload_2018-1-12_17-9-34.png
     
  17. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2013
    Messages:
    3,794
    Likes Received:
    9
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Singapura
    waulau.. 2millions shares at a go to sell Singtel
     
  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    Withdrew my order. SIAN.
     
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    SingTel...

    NABEH to that fund or institution.
    NABEH him. aa-17j-hitwithrock.gif
     
  20. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,522
    Likes Received:
    440
    Gender:
    Male
    I am queueing at 3.15 to tikam.
     
Loading...

Share This Page