The Trading Floor - January 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Dec 31, 2017.


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  1. angang8

    angang8 Well-Known Member

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    DJ future so Ang ... better stop all the Long first...
     
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Price action-wise she is still at the 8.13 to 8.30 range.
    And if want to talk about a smaller range within a larger range...then its 8.20 to 8.29.
    A small enclosure there measuring 9 ft in length for the chickens to run around to and fro.



    [​IMG]
     
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    [​IMG]

    If you look at the areas marked A and B, whenever the stock fell from above her 20-ema, the price found support after dipping slightly below
    the 50-ema.

    If you look at the area marked C, the price found support only when it was near the 200-ema.

    And at the area marked D, the price found support after dipping below the 20-ema.

    Currently, the EMAs are at :

    20-ema - 2.77
    50-ema - 2.74
    200-ema - 2.66

    She is doing 2.77 : 2.78 now.
    See whether she can bounce off the 20-ema at 2.77 or if she needs to dip lower.
    Looking at the price action and the timeline, I think we can look at 2.66 to 2.73 bearing in mind her LOWs may come about sometime in mid to end-Feb.
    Maybe she will find an interim bottom and have a weak bounce first before resuming her downmove in search of her real bottom.
    I suppose we can consider a small SHORT trade at the next bounce.
     
  4. angang8

    angang8 Well-Known Member

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    Defended 8.20 for the second time
     
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    SEX...

    8.18 : 8.19.
     
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    upload_2018-1-30_14-15-3.png
    upload_2018-1-30_14-16-25.png
    upload_2018-1-30_14-14-33.png

    http://sbr.com.sg/telecom-internet/news/singtels-non-traditional-segments-eat-10-revenue

    DBS Equity Research placed it as a "digital leader" amongst Asian telcos.

    Singtel is considered the "digital leader" amongst Asian telcos, because of the growth of its non-traditional services, DBS Equity Research said in a sector report.

    It scored 77 for its DBS' framework for telcos, significantly higher than those other Singapore players StarHub and M1, which scored 62 and 32, respectively.

    "We have identified Singtel to be a digital leader as the telco has set itself a well-defined digital strategy and operational excellence through digitisation."

    DBS said the digital leader's revenue from non-traditional should comprise about 15% of total revenue by 2020.

    Singtel’s digital and cyber-security segments now account for almost 10% of its topline and grew almost 55% in 2Q2018, supported by acquisitions.

    "Realising the threat to legacy consumer and enterprise revenues, Singtel made strategic investments in areas it had a natural competitive advantage in," DBS analyst Sachin Mittal said.

    Singtel announced plans to invest $2b in strategic investments in digital businesses in 2013 and made acquisitions in the managed cybersecurity services and adtech space.

    Consequently, growth segments, which comprise ICT services, Cybersecurity, and Digital Life contributed nearly 25% of Singtel’s revenues in 2Q2018, up from 19% in 3Q2016.

    Revenues from these segments are projected to grow by 100% over the next five years, contributing over 35% to Singtel’s topline, well compensating for potential declines in legacy services.

    Moreover, Singtel is still one of the least exposed telcos in the region to the threat of declining legacy revenues, generating around 24% of its topline from legacy voice and SMS services.

    Here's more from DBS Equity Research:

    Furthermore, the telco is present in several aspects of the digital advertising value chain and specialises in niche segments such as the provision of brand intelligence and cross-device audience targeting, which do not face direct competition from the likes of Facebook and Google.

    Amobee, the digital advertising arm of Singtel, is also able to leverage Singtel’s regional presence to gain traction in Asia, where SMEs remain hesitant to partner with big names in digital advertising due to hefty fee structures and the lack of an understanding of the regional market.

    With digital and mobile advertising spend in the ASEAN region expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% from US$2.8b in 2017 to US$4.4b by 2020, we expect to see strong growth in Singtel’s digital advertising business.
     
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    SingTel...

    Waaaaaa..........this comatose patient woke up leow and the first thing she did is to fall down.
    NOW SHOWING 3.58 : 3.59.
    Good thing from 2 days ago I stopped doing my customary queueing at 3.60 at pre-opening.
     
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Now lagi more ANG.


    upload_2018-1-30_14-3-48.png
     
  9. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    They give face to you. aa1a (3).gif
     
  10. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    In Spore, Deepavali is a Pubic Holiday.
    Thaipusam is not.
    So the battle here rages on.




    [​IMG]
     
  11. angang8

    angang8 Well-Known Member

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    STI trading tomorrow?? Tomorrow is Thaipusam in Bolehland...
     
  12. angang8

    angang8 Well-Known Member

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    Walau .. Why DJ future so Ang??
     
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa !!! aa1aa4.gif


    upload_2018-1-30_12-7-46.png
     
  14. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    SingTel...

    This fellow har... I think my theory is correct. All the local funds all no bolas type. All along, they were not the ones taking the lead
    on previous occasions when we saw her rise from the 3.50s to the 3.90s. All along, it was the foreign funds taking the lead. And
    these local funds just hitched a ride on the bigger monkeys back then. And they are doing the same thing now. Waiting for an
    Ang Moh monkey to come to take the lead. But problem is if there is a change in strategy in the Ang Moh funds to sell utilities
    and telcos, they wont be coming here to buy SingTel anytime soon. Which means this Red Umbrella will continue to be in a
    coma.

    My only consolation is... her yearly dividend of 10.7 cts in Aug + 6.8 cts in Dec.... total is 17.5 cts... can help to cover her daily
    interest charges.

    I still have 129 lots stuck. I can only hope that between now and May, she will recover to 3.85 - 3.90 region for me to cut and
    achieve breakeven. The troops which I had set aside to LONG another 250 lots... looking at her price action, no point I deploy
    those troops into her. Skarly get stuck also then my troops will lie idle and non-productive. I believe the right thing to do is to
    divert those troops and deploy them to catch the FEB LOWs of the 4 Musketeers instead which is a better way to utilise my
    scarce resources.
     
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  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Snipers,

    Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month of Jan 2018. Still considered as the start of the Year 2018.
    This is a good time to look at your portfolio and look at your stable of stuck stocks. Ask yourself - should you still LOON on?
    Is your reason for LOONing still valid? If yes, LOON on. And add more positions when the time is ripe to achieve a lower
    average price for LONGs or a higher average price for SHORTs so as to bring yourself within striking distance of freedom.
    But if your reason for LOONing on is no longer valid, then cut and move on. Free up your troops so that they can fight for
    you again. As long as you continue to LOON a hopeless stuck position which cannot see any reasonable hope of being
    freed, you are incurring daily interest charges plus your capital in those stuck positions are not working for you. Yes, it is
    painful to cut. But cut you must if the situation is hopeless. And get used to it. Why get used to it? Becoz it will happen again.
    No matter how good we are...how careful we are, we cant get it right all the time. At times, we will be wrong. And we will LOON.
    That's what is preached here. To trade in Sure Come Stocks so that if lose, we LOON until win. Yes, this works most of the time.
    But when there is a major shift in the playing field, what used to be right will become wrong. And when such a shift happens, we
    must have the courage and wisdom to CUT. For our own good.

    Has this shift thingy already happened? Yes, it has. For the banks. If you are SHORT in the banks in 2017, especially if your SHORTs
    were done in early 2017 and you had been adding more SHORTs each time they rose thinking that they would Lao Hong and go back
    down, can you imagine how deep your paper losses will be by now? So the question you ask is .... What next? LOON on? Or cut?
    For me, I will analyse it this way - if I am SHORT in the banks in 2017 and I hope to get out without a scratch or with minimal losses,
    for that to happen, the banks must give back all their gains registered in 2017. Is that going to happen? You need a recession for the
    banks to give back all their gains registered in 2017. Does it look like we are going to have a recession? On the contrary, interest rates
    are set to rise in 2018. Banks' earnings are primed to rise too and that means their stock prices will rise as well. And if I am still LOONing
    those SHORTs, what's gonna become of my positions? That's why to me, the situation is hopeless. The reason to LOON is no longer valid.
    Then cut I will... no matter how painful it is. Becoz if I dont, I will end up worse off. Coz I will be paying interest day after day. And mind you,
    for SHORT positions, I will not have dividends to help me pay the daily interest. To make matters worse, I will also have to pay the dividends
    and mind you...banks' dividends are HUGE. And in the end, I will still have to cut and if I wait, I will end up cutting at higher prices and incur
    even more losses.

    Another good stock to illustrate this point about whether we should LOON on or cut is SGX.

    SGX... her playing field is from 7.00 to 7.70. If overshoot on the downside, we can see 6.80-6.90. And there was once even 6.60.
    Then overshoot on the upside beyond 7.70, we can see 7.80 to 8.00. And 8.00 would be considered a max out already.
    So under normal circumstances, her trading range is taken as 7.00 to 7.70 thereabout.
    So let's say we have started SHORTing her at 7.70 region a few weeks back. And then added SHORTs when she rose towards 8.00.
    Back then, the thinking was SHORT AT HIGH TIDE. Then wait for her to go back down towards 7.00 and we will be deep in the money.
    But she blasted the wall at 8.00 and blown it to millions of blistering barnacles. And continued to rise to touch 8.50.
    After that, she has been range trading at 8.13 to 8.30 last few days...refusing to go down back below 8.00 although she already gone XD
    but at the same time not revisiting 8.50 to go higher too.

    So what now? We are still SHORT at 7.70 to 8.00 and LOONing.
    What should we do? ADD even more SHORTs?
    Given the price action last few days, I am compelled to ask myself - are we seeing a major shift in her playing field?
    Is it that her 7.00 to 7.70 trading range is history and we now have to contend with 8.00 to 9.00 ???
    In the days ahead, if she continuously refuse to revisit 8.00... or on reaching 8.00, buyers appeared and she rebound strongly from there,
    then that is a sign that a major shift in her playing field could have occurred. And if that is so, the best we can do for ourselves is to cut our
    SHORTs as near to 8.00 as we can and go LONG.

    As of now, it is still early. She hit 8.50 just 5 trading days ago. After hitting 8.50, she did pull back to 8.15. And from there rebounded to 8.30.
    Then from 8.30, she dipped to 8.13 and then rebounded again to retouch 8.30. Then today she is at 8.20 to 8.30. So still not clear whether
    she is taking a breather to consolidate at 8.13 to 8.30 intending to retest 8.50 to go higher.... OR.... doing her distribution now at 8.20 to 8.30
    and after that break below 8.00. Your guess is as good as mine. But if you are SHORTing, do bear in mind if her playing field has indeed changed
    to 8.00-9.00... you will have to cut and go LONG and take some pain. To go LONG now also carries the same amount of risk becoz if she is
    going back to her 7.00-7.70 range, that is a very long way down if you are LONG up here at the 8.20s.
     
  16. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    STI recovering
     
  17. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    NO fishing la.. Ba Lu go Pearl River Delta to enjoy the FOOD, weather and of course you know what...










    Dim Sum
     
  18. angang8

    angang8 Well-Known Member

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    Q Sex at 8.21...see got chance or not
     
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Futures turned red...


    upload_2018-1-30_9-26-19.png
     
  20. angang8

    angang8 Well-Known Member

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