The Trading Floor - January 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Dec 31, 2017.


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  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Suntec...

    NABEH.... today I queue at 2.17 and 2.18 but she no hew me.
    Now 2.21 : 2.22. NABEH the Koo Niang ar she.
     
  2. Nashbium

    Nashbium Well-Known Member

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    alot alot of big buy ups this early morning
     
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    The 4 Musketeers are firming up and heading north.
    Hop on guys.
     
    Nashbium likes this.
  4. Nashbium

    Nashbium Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers!!
     
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    SEX...

    Opened at 8.10.
    Monkey is going to do the KHEE SEOW thingy leow.
     
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Ascendas ...

    She closed at 2.77 on Frday.
    Last High at 2.83.


    a1.jpg
     
  7. angang8

    angang8 Well-Known Member

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    Wow bro.. thanks for the calculations leh... that is a relief.
     
  8. koaladreaming

    koaladreaming Well-Known Member

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    Good the hot and humid Singapore afternoon Everyone :eek:
     
  9. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    SGX pays 5 cts per quarter for the 1st 3 quarters.
    Then pays 16 cts in the final quarter.
    Total is 31 cts.
    If SGX... a stock trading at $7.00 to $8.00 can up their quarterly dividend to say 8 cts and declare a final dividend of 18 cts
    making it a total of 42 cts per year, this stock will grow wings and fly and $7.00 will become ancient history.

    Good dividends. Plus very good stock price appreciation. That's why monkeys also cannot help it but love to have SEX.
    Becoz she is simply so delicious that she is irresistible. aa1a (18).gif





    g13.gif



    The only setback is that trading at $7.00 to $8.00, she requires lots of capital to trade.
    And to make matters worse, IG allows 10% margin for only the first 30 lots.
    SingTel is trading at half the price but IG allows 10% margin for the 1st 325 lots.
    So logically, IG should offer 10% margin for the 1st 150 lots for SGX...proportionate to SingTel.
    Wish SGX is trading at the $3.00 to $4.00 range.
    And wish all counters trading at this range ... IG also allows 325 lots for the 1st tier.
     
  10. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Okay guys, this is the post about SingTel that I was talking about.

    This afternoon when I was staring at my screen, the thought suddenly came to mind. So I reached for my calculator... punched in some figures...
    looked at the results... and was surprised at what I saw. "Then its do-able", I said to myself. Okay, here's the story.

    SingTel is currently trading at 3.59 to 3.61 band. We have been watching her for so long that we know to buy her at 3.60 is no problem at all.
    Dont even have to queue. Can just take at that price and take as much as you can afford to buy.
    To discuss this plan, I need to make certain assumptions. But we make realistic assumptions. Such as:

    1. Between now and 15 Dec 2018... about 11 months... we should see SingTel recover to say, 3.80. Probably higher. But let's just be conservative
    and use a lower price target to work out this model to see if its do-able.

    2. That SingTel will pay 10.7 cts dividend in late Jul or early Aug... and 6.8 cts in Dec. So total dividend is 17.5 cts.

    3. That SIBOR will over the next 11 months remain at a band of 1.3% to 1.8%. And we will use 1.5% as a median rate to do our calculations.

    Now, how much does it cost in interest charges to hold 1000 shares in SingTel for 11 months? It is 349 days to be exact if I count from Monday,
    22 Jan to 15 Dec.

    IG's Base Rate of 2.5% + 1.5% (SIBOR) = 4% x $3800 (1000 shares x $3.80) = $152.

    Then if we take $152 and divide by 365 days x 349 days, we get $145.33. This is the interest payable to hold 1000 SingTel shares till 15 Dec 2018.

    If we divide $145.33 by 1000 shares, the interest cost per share is 14.533 cents.
    Assuming we buy at 3.60 and sell at 3.80, the commission for this 2-way trade is 0.0074 cent per share.
    So the sum total of interest charge and commission per share is 15.273 cents per share.
    But if we hold the shares till 15 Dec, each share will earn a total of 17.5 cts in dividend.
    In other words, the dividend will fully cover the interest charge and commission leaving a balance of 2.227 cents per share.
    Or $22.27 nett per 1000 shares.

    What the above calculation mean is that... if we buy 1000 shares at 3.60 to hold till 15 Dec, the dividends will pay for the interest charges and com.
    And on 15 Dec 2018, even if we sell that 1000 shares at $3.60 (that is at the same price), we will still make a nett sum of $22.27.
    And if we can sell our 1000 shares at above 3.60, then for every 1 cent above 3.60, we can make an additional $10.

    So what this exercise means is that we can buy SingTel at 3.60 on Monday and ride it up for as high as we can. If she runs... be it to only 3.70
    or to as high as 4.00, we sell when we are happy with the profits. And from past trading experience, we know very likely SingTel will run to 3.70
    again. 3.80... also quite likely. 3.90... also likely. 4.00... maybe yes maybe not. But 3.70 to 3.90... within 11 months, is most likely. And when the
    price is at those levels, we will be in the money. And we will take our profits. At worst, even if we sell our shares at the same price, ie. at 3.60
    on 15 Dec, we will still not lose money. Becoz the dividends will cover the interest charges and the com. And leave us with a nett sum of $22.27
    for every 1 lot we have.

    There is only one situation which can destroy this model and cause us to lose money and that is, if SingTel fails to rise above 3.61 ... and fall from
    current level and never recover to 3.60 again in the next 11 months. If your assessment is that this scenario is so unlikely that it should be totally
    discounted, then buying SingTel at 3.60 is a sure win proposition. If your assessment is that this scenario is very likely, then you should be cutting
    all your SingTel and then go SHORT.
     
  12. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    There is a fine line between courage and stupidity.



    [​IMG]


    So many real life accounts of how a trainer was attacked or killed by a wild animal he had raised or spent
    tens of years with. Wild animals have wild instincts. The day when the wilderness in them snaps is the day
    when they will attack you. And you wont know when that day is. Or why. At our Mandai Zoo, an elephant
    suddenly went berserk one day and attacked a zoo keeper who has been nurturing the elephant for more
    than 15 years. Why? Becoz an elephant is a wild animal and should be treated as such.
     
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    "SINGAPORE (Jan 18): ST Electronics has clinched about $742 million worth of contracts over 4Q17, bringing the total value of new orders secured in 2017 by its parent company, ST Engineering, to $2.24 billion........................."

    Any mention of a contract to supply and install a state of the art surveillance system to monitor every sound and movement
    at the monkey enclosure at Mandai Zoo? aa1a (4).gif


    [​IMG]
     
  14. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 18): ST Electronics has clinched about $742 million worth of contracts over 4Q17, bringing the total value of new orders secured in 2017 by its parent company, ST Engineering, to $2.24 billion.

    In a Friday filing, ST Engineering says the latest contract wins from its electronics arm are in the fields of rail electronics & intelligent transportation, satellite & broadband communications, as well as advance electronics & information communications technologies (ICT) solutions.

    Rail electronics & intelligent transportation contracts of more than $160 million were secured from both overseas and local customers, says the group, which include the supply of rail systems for Thailand and the region.

    This includes the delivery of the Communications Systems, Automatic Fare Collection System, Platform Screen Doors, SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) and Passenger Information System for the Bangkok Blue Line Extension.

    In Singapore, ST Electronics has secured contracts for the delivery of the Communications Systems and Control Systems for the Circle Line Stage 6 and the Kim Chuan Depot Extension, which includes three new underground stations.

    These projects will be completed progressively till 2024.

    Meanwhile, satellite & broadband communications contracts amounting to $84 million were awarded from various government, telecom and enterprise users worldwide – and will be completed progressively over the next three years.

    These contracts included the installation of a VT iDirect Hub in Somalia and Mexico which enables high speed satellite connectivity and data application; the launch of the first VT iDirect DVB-S2X network in Russia; as well as the deployment of VT iDirect’s Velocity Infrastructure that delivers geostationary High Throughput Satellite services for global mobility markets.

    Lastly, $498 million worth of advanced electronics and ICT contracts were secured from both local and overseas customers, including a contract worth about $98 million from Israel-based company Arad Technologies for the supply of a smart sensor network system.

    Other contracts involve building a comprehensive electronics system for Raffles City Chong Qing, as well as a communications system deployed in 12 hospitals across Hong Kong.

    These projects will be completed progressive until 2022.

    “With the strong support of our partners and customers, we have continued to forge ahead with our growth strategy, advancing our global track record in implementing smart city initiatives worldwide. As rapid technology shifts continue to challenge global businesses, we have built on our deep engineering expertise and indigenous capabilities, and intensified our efforts on developing innovative and industry-leading solutions to help businesses tackle increasingly complex challenges they face,” says Ravinder Singh, president of ST Electronics, on the latest round of contract wins.

    ST Engineering does not expect the contracts to have any material impact on the group’s earnings for the current financial year.
     
  15. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 19): Singapore Exchange reported earnings of $88.4 million for the 2Q ended December, compared to $88.3 million a year ago.

    Total revenue rose 3% to $205.0 million for 2Q18, from $199.6 million a year ago.

    Revenue from its derivatives segment rose 11% to $83.3 million in 2Q18, from $75.0 million a year ago.

    This was mainly due to a 6% increase in equity and commodities revenue on the back of an 18% increase in total volumes to 48.6 million contracts, as well as a 26% increase in collateral management, licence, membership and other revenue due to higher yield from collateral management.

    Revenue from its market data and connectivity segment rose 4% to $24.2 million, from $23.3 million a year ago.

    This was mainly due to higher market data revenue on revisions to data usage fees as well as continued growth of its colocation services business.

    The improvements were partially offset by a 4% decline in revenue from its equities and fixed income segment, which accounted for 48% of SGX’s total revenue.

    Comprising issuer services, securities trading & clearing, and post trade services, revenue from the segment fell to $97.5 million in 2Q18, from $101.4 million a year ago.

    Expenses increased by 5% to $102.1 million in 2Q18, from $97.2 million a year ago, mainly due to higher staff costs and technology expenses, partially offset by lower discretionary expenses.

    As at end December, cash and cash equivalents stood at $471.3 million.

    Earnings per share (EPS) was maintained at 8.2 cents in 2Q18, unchanged from a year ago.

    SGX has declared an interim dividend of 5 cents per share for the period, unchanged from a year ago.

    “Looking ahead, we aim to keep pace with the positive momentum achieved over 2017. Besides expecting more listings, we will strengthen our Asian derivatives foothold through new product offerings in equities, commodities and FX,” says Loh Boon Chye, chief executive officer of SGX.

    “Synergies with the Baltic Exchange are also coming through with more Asian members and a new LNG Index in the pipeline. As we continue to expand our business through strategic investments and collaborations, we intend to establish a Euro Medium Term Note programme to provide us with the flexibility to fund organic or inorganic growth, when the need arises,” he adds.

    The Board of Directors has declared an interim dividend of 5 cents per share.

    upload_2018-1-19_21-30-10.png
     
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    This fellow got style.


    [​IMG]
     
  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Waaaaa............this one is cute. aa1a (3).gif



    [​IMG]
     
  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Later tonite if I am not tired.
    If tonite didnt write tomorrow morn should be able to.
    Tonite got bedminton.
    Maybe after bedminton if I have mood, then I write? aa13.gif


    [​IMG]
     
  19. angang8

    angang8 Well-Known Member

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    Wah ... sure Huat ... I want I want...:D
     
  20. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Newbee...

    Use Deal Ticket to place an order. You can place it anytime. Even after market hours.

    Ascendas : LONG at 2.74/2.75.
    CapitaMall : LONG at 2.04/2.05.
    Suntec : LONG at 2.17/2.18.
    Wilmar : LONG at 3.15.
     
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