The Trading Floor - December 2013

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by nottibird, Dec 1, 2013.


Draft saved Draft deleted
  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
    Yup, my last shorting on her was right after the 1Q results and XD. She plunged from 1.95 to 1.63 in one and a half months.
    This time around, it looks like she does not want to plunge after XD on 31 Jul. I think she may do a delayed dip anytime now which
    may last to mid-Sep before she starts her run-up to 3Q results in end Oct. She may also decide to just go sideways all the way to
    end Oct, oscillating in a range of 1.83 - 1.91.
    If she breaks today' s high of 1.91, she may go touch the 1.95 resistance.
    I took up the 1.89 position this morning. [​IMG]
     
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
    upload_2018-8-6_11-1-43.png
    upload_2018-8-6_11-2-12.png


    upload_2018-8-3_9-3-55.png
    upload_2018-8-3_9-4-31.png

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Aug 7, 2018
  4. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
  5. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
    If you are young and you are the type who Chiak Bay Pwee one...you can eat what you want whenever you want and yet your
    weight remains about the same, good for you. But this wont last forever. I know becoz I was like that too. For months, every
    nite I ate one packet of Hor Fun at about midnite and went to sleep and yet my weight never went up. Why I ate Hor Fun at
    midnite every nite was becoz my neighbour worked for a Chze Char stall at a nearby coffeeshop and she gets to bring back
    a packet of noodles after work. As she didnt need supper, she brought it back nightly for me.

    As we age, our metabolism slows down and for the majority of us, our level of physical exertion also lessen. So we pretty much
    dont burn off even a fraction of what we eat let alone all that we eat. Hence, over time, we gain weight and for men, we find our
    waistline adding an extra inch every 6 months or every year whilst for women, you find that your butt is growing and you wish
    your boobs will do that instead.

    Those of you who think that exercise is the key to losing weight, you will be disappointed to learn that just to maintain your weight
    let alone lose weight, the amount of exercise you have to do per day is so much that it is humanly impossible for almost all of us.
    To burn off all the calories from a plate of chicken rice, you need to do brisk walk for about 2 hours continuously or alternatively,
    jog for an hour non-stop. And to burn off the calories from one plate of Char Kway Teow, you need to walk 3 laps around the whole
    of Marina Bay, or about 15 km in distance. Some food contain lesser calories and some food contain even higher calories than
    Chicken Rice or Char Kway Teow. So let's average it out and say for someone who typically eats 3 meals per day, he will have to
    jog 3 hours per day or brisk walk for 6 hours per day in order to burn off all of what he eats. How is that ever going to be possible?
    So if we cant do enough exercise to burn off what we eat daily, the only solution is to eat less and watch what we eat. Eat less can
    be to eat lesser meals per day as well as to eat a smaller portion when we eat. Watch what we eat means to avoid eating food which
    are high in calories and this mean food which are high in sugar or fat.

    When we eat, proteins and minerals do not make us gain weight. But carbohydrates (or carbs for short) do. Carbs when broken
    down by the body to its basic element, is essentially sugar. So rice and french fries may appear as staple food which helps to give
    us that satisfying "full" feeling. But to our bodies, rice and french fries are basically sugar. Plus fat owing to the way french fries
    is cooked.

    When we consume food high in carbs, we are consuming sugar. The body converts the calories in sugar to generate energy to
    power the organic functions in our body and for physical activity. The more physical activity we have, the more sugar is converted
    to provide energy to fuel our physical activity. Whatever sugar is not required is converted by our body into fat and stored under
    our skin. And that's how we gain weight.

    So to lose weight, just do the math. Create a calorie deficit in our daily food intake. Men need about 1800 calories per day and
    women need 1200. If we consume less calories than we need each day, the body will take our fat stored under the skin to make
    energy to make up for that deficit. And we will lose weight.

    Which is why if you continue to eat in exactly the same way as you have been doing and you start exercising, you wont lose weight.
    But even without exercising, if you eat 2 meals a day instead of 3 and you eat a simple sandwich meal or oat meal with fruits and a
    hot drink for lunch and you reduce your dinner meal portion by one-third, you will lose weight. The key to losing weight is to create
    a calorie deficit in your diet, not exercise. Becoz if you eat in exactly the same way you have been doing in terms of frequency and
    portion, the exercise which you can humanly do per day will not be enough to burn what you eat, let alone burn the excess fat you
    have under your skin.

    Reducing your food intake requires alot alot of discipline and willpower. We love to eat becoz eating is enjoyable and pleasurable.
    So basically, what you need to do is to suppress what you enjoy doing --- to eat. Which is what makes it so difficult. But it can be
    done if you have the determination to lose weight. And that motivation can be in the form of simply wanting to look good in clothes
    and feel good about yourself or to improve your health as weight issues tend to bring on weight-related medical conditions like high
    blood pressure, diabetes and heart disease which requires lifelong medication.

    Yes, to deprive yourself of the pleasure of eating is, to many of us, impossible unless it is forced on you. Like people who went to
    prison. Like people who became prisoners of war during World War II. But it does conclusively prove the point that reducing food
    intake is the key to losing weight and keeping weight away. One more thing --- whatever dieting plan you come up with and you
    managed to lose weight, for it to work, it must be something which your body is happy with for life. Becoz if your body is not happy
    with it, then it is something which you are prepared to put up with on a temporary basis only. Meaning your urge to eat in the same
    way as before is still there and your plan is to get back to it as soon as you can. Then it wont work. For most of us who go on a diet
    and succeeded in losing weight, success makes us complacent. And we tell ourselves we have achieved weight loss and want to
    celebrate by giving ourselves a good treat to eat all we like as often as we like. And we are so naive to believe that all those kilos
    we lost so painstakingly, will not come back. They will. If you resume eating the same way you have been doing as before. And those
    kilos will come back much faster than you think.
     
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
    When you spot a stock which is on a steady downtrend or uptrend and you trade that stock, you should trade in the direction of the trend
    and stay with it until the trend changes. Your should go with the trend becoz that is the primary direction. Any short term move in the opposite
    direction is a counter-trend move and unless triggered by a change in the fundamentals of the company plus that counter-trend move is
    accompanied by a surge in the average daily volume, that move is likely to be temporary and shortlived. You may well have to languish
    meantime whilst the counter-trend move is in progress. But as long as the trend is still valid and continues, sooner or later the counter-trend
    move will exhaust itself and burn itself out and the stock will return to and resume in the primary direction of its trend. Stay with the trend until
    it changes.
     
  9. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
  10. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
    During the reporting season in April, Suntec was a laggard. Someone in her was divesting bigtime and sold her down
    from 1.91 region to 1.86. She rebounded from there when the selling stopped and traded to a High of 1.97 prior to XD.
    After XD, she has been falling without any meaningful bounce and hit a LOW of 1.69 today.


    [​IMG]

    Where is her possible bottom?
    I cant see anything with her 6-Mth chart or 1-Yr chart.
    Only when I pulled out her 2-Yr chart that I could see a previous Area of Support at 1.57 to 1.73.

    [​IMG]

    She already entered this Area of Support since yesterday when she reached 1.73.
    So we should wait and see if 1.57 can hold.
    She closed at 1.71 today.
    1.57 is just 14 cts away from today' s closing price.
    If our REIT investors react adversely to the almost certain rate hike tonite, whether another 14 cts of fall to 1.57 is enough for
    medium term and long term investors to find value in her to buy her for keeps is something we will have to wait and see. She
    pays about 10 cts dividends per year. At 1.57, her Dividend Yield will be 6.37% p.a. which is not bad plus a reasonable chance
    of getting a decent capital appreciation.
     
  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
    rapiddash
    leex0025
    curiousmoo
    winwin
    luckywarrior
    newtrade
    colorado
    lucky520
    Newbiefan
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2018
  12. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
    DBS...

    Her last few major pullbacks were...

    From 29.71 (26 Feb) to 27.85 (5 Mar).... 6.26%.
    Then came the rebound from 27.85 to 29.19.
    After that another pullback from 29.19 (14 Mar) to 26.35 (4 Apr)... 9.73%.

    Last High was 31.28.
    If the current pullback is 6.28%, it will end at 29.31.
    If the current pullback is 9.73%, it will end at 28.23.

    But the entire pullback from 29.71 (26 Feb) to 26.35 (4 Apr) was 11.3%.
    And if the current pullback from Last High at 31.28 is going to be 11.3%, then it will end at 27.74.
     
  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
  14. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
    For my own easy reference...

    *************************************************************************************
    SingTel...

    I just did the math.
    I have 129 lots at an average price of 3.96.
    This position was opened on 21 Mar 2017.
    Assuming by 30 Apr 2018, she can recover to say $3.89 and I sell at that price, the Aug 10.7 cts dividends and the Dec 9.8 cts dividends
    can cover the com and interest charges from 21 Mar 2017 to 30 Apr 2018 leaving me with 7.5 cts to cover the loss in stock price.

    In short, if can sell at $3.89 by 30 Apr 2018, I will achieve a breakeven on this trade.

    That's quite a comforting thought.

    The question to ask is - will she recover to $3.89 by 30 Apr 2018 ?

    Well, April is reporting month for the REITs and some of the blue chip counters. SingTel usually report results in May and that's when she
    will also declare the usual 10.7 cts dividends. During the Mar to Apr period, the market tends to be firm as it is reporting season.
     
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
  20. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    48,598
    Likes Received:
    441
    Gender:
    Male
Loading...

Share This Page