The Trading Floor - August 2018

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by nottibird, Jul 31, 2018.


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  1. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    DBS Research:-

    SingTel:

    upload_2018-8-15_10-44-52.png
     
  2. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Bro...

    I think monkey is collecting SHORTs at 7.40 to 7.46 this morn.
    When he is done, the price will go below 7.30.
     
  3. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    good morning snipers
     
  4. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  5. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers
     
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    His reaction is priceless.


    [​IMG]
     
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Sibeh cute lah !!!



    [​IMG]
     
  9. koaladreaming

    koaladreaming Well-Known Member

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    Good evening everyone and big thanks to Bro NB for the charts.
     
  10. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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  11. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    Good morning snipers
     
  12. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  13. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    I will now show you the charts for CCT and likewise, draw your own conclusions and have a Plan B if she dont behave as expected.


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  14. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Suntec...

    Guys, there is something about this fellow I want to highlight to you all. I was looking at her charts and didnt find any alternate
    UP and DOWN patterns as in Ascendas. So for this fellow, she can do the opposite of what we expect. So just want to bring to
    everyone' s attention so that we prepare ourselves for it and if it happens, your Plan B is ready becoz you already factored it into
    your expectation.

    I show you her chart for the period from Oct 2017 to Jan 2018.
    I use a black box to denote her reporting month and a blue box to denote the 1st and 2nd monhs after a reporting month.
    Now, normally, a Musketeer will tend to trade to the downside on the 1st and 2nd month following a reporting month.
    Not Suntec this time round from Oct, a reporting month thru Nov and Dec, the 1st and 2nd months following a reporting month.


    [​IMG]

    What this means is that in Nov 2017, anyone who SHORT Suntec expecting her to trade to the downside would be very busy
    scrambling to cover to keep his or her losses small.

    Is this a one-off? No, The same thing also happened earlier from April to July 2017.


    [​IMG]

    I now show you her latest chart updated as at 10 August 2018.


    [​IMG]

    She ran up in July 2018 which was her reporting month.
    In August, she is supposed to trade to the downside. But she didnt. She traded higher.
    Is this a temporary strength due to a monkey holding her price up for distribution?
    And when distribution ends, she will fall and trade to the downside?
    Or is this going to be a repeat of what we saw from April to July 2017 and then repeated from Oct 2017 to Jan 2018?

    I dunno.
    But I am highlighting this so that you guys be made aware that she is capabe of going higher in August and even higher
    in September and thereafter continue to run for her next reporting season. No need to ask why. Its all up to her monkey.
    Its a case of .....I Chia Mai niah. No need for logic, reason or explanation.
    So do write a Plan B into your trading plan to deal with this scenario if she does the Khee Seow thingy.
     
  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    CMT....the Gila Monster...
    Gila in Malay means mad. Or more appropriately --- Tua Khee Seow.
    She has been so strong last week she was really like Tua Khee Seow lidat.... macam gila leow...so much so until I am scared to SHORT her.
    So I took a closer look at her chart and this is what I discovered.
    I present to you the facts. This is data based on chart. Charts dont lie. Cant run away from it one.
    I highlight what I saw. And will leave things to your own imagination and each of you form your own conclusions.

    I pulled out her chart from 2017 as I wanted to see what she did from July 2017 to September 2017 and this is what I saw.


    [​IMG]

    1. She rose in July 2017 which was her reporting month.
    2. She dipped towards the end of July...probably upon trading XD. But note that that dip was more like a pullback only and not
    a retracement. That dip ended higher than her July LOW which was at the beginning of July 2017.
    3. After that end-July dip, she recovered in Aug 2017 and went even higher than her July HIGH.
    4. It was only in Sep 2017 that she finally turned and took a dip but even then, her Sep dip ended at a level higher than her
    end-July dip.

    I now bring you back to the present day to show you her current chart updated as at 10 Aug 2017.
    What if she repeats what she did in the August of 2017 ?
    Then the Aug to Sep 2018 chart may look something like this...


    [​IMG]

    I think I will leave her alone for this quarter. More accurately.... leave her backside alone.
    Dont want to poke her leow wait she use her hand to grab and break it. [​IMG]
     
  16. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Sis, there you go.


    DBS' 6-Mth Daily chart.


    a1.png

    DBS' 1-Yr Daily chart.

    a2.png

    Then followed by OCBC's 6th and 1-Yr Daily charts.


    a3.png a4.png
     
  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    [​IMG]

    Wilmar used to have a monkey. And this monkey is really VERY strong. Sibeh Hiong one. Sibeh aggressive. Sbeh Tok Kong.
    When he is BULL, you LONG you fly. You SHORT you die.
    In Jan 2017, this monkey appeared and took the driver' s seat and I hitched a ride on him.
    See what he gave me that time.


    [​IMG]

    Mind you, this was what I got by chicken running on him for less than a week. That' s how strong he is.
    But its a pity that I have not seen him since then.
    All this while, I have been waiting for him to reappear to hitch another ride on him.
    But he never came back. Never.
    And it has been more than a year and a half since I last saw him.
    And I believe he is the same monkey who used to play Capitaland and ST Engrg.
    Becoz the price action was the same. Even the HIGH TIDEs of all 3 counters were the same... around 3.85 to 3.90 level and
    sometimes even hit 4.00. But a pity for us, this monkey has since gone on to somewhere else.

    Wilmar is reporting after market close on Monday.
    If result is disappointing... she is good for a SHORT trade.
    Last quarter, her result was weak. So if compared with previous quarter, maybe got chance for her to show she has improved.
    But compared with same period year-on-year, likely she will turn out worse. Some more Ah Mah has been telling us palm oil
    price has been dropping and dropping like shit. If only petrol price is lidat. So if results weak, she is good for a SHORT trade.
    But say first, if at any time that previous monkey should suddenly show up... then must open eyes big big to see which direction
    he is playing. Never trade opposite to him. NEVER. Always be on the same side as him. ALWAYS.
     
  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    [​IMG]

    OCT 2017 was a reporting month.
    Nov 2017 was the 1st month and Dec 2017 was the 2nd month after a reporting month.
    Notice that the pullback which came after a reporting month found a low which was below the low of the reporting month.
    The pullback came in Nov 2017.
    The Nov LOW was below the Oct LOW.

    JAN 2018 was a reporting month.
    Feb and Mar were the 1st and 2nd months after a reporting month.
    The pullback came in Feb.
    Notice that the Feb LOW was below the Jan LOW.

    Apr 2018 was a reporting month.
    May and June were the 1st and 2nd months after a reporting month.
    For this quarter, the pullback came in June.
    Notice that the June LOW was below the Apr LOW.

    Jul 2018 was a reporting month.
    We do not know yet whether the pullback will come in Aug or Sep.
    The Jul LOW was $2.60.
    If Ascendas continues to do in this quarter what she did in the last 3 quarters, her Aug LOW or Sep LOW will be lower than $2.60.
     
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    [​IMG]

    From the above 1-Yr Daily chart of Ascendas, we can see that she follows more or less a rather consistent pattern as follows:

    1. She will run for Results (and dividend if dividend is payable) in her reporting months. These are JAN, APR, JUL and OCT.
    2. She will usually trade to the downside and go lower in the month following her reporting month, ie. in FEB, MAY, AUG and NOV.
    3. She may or may not trade even lower in the 2nd month after her previous reporting month.
    4. In any case, whether it happens in the 1st month or 2nd month after her reporting month, she will usually do a pullback and trade
    to the downside.

    JULY was her reporting month and she hit a HIGH of 2.77.
    Based on her chart history, we should see her do a pullback in AUG or in SEP.

    Hence, it follows that the strength we have been seeing in her last week where she touched 2.78 is probably she being held up
    for the purpose of distribution at higher prices. If all goes well, we should be seeing her trade to the downside to break below 2.70
    first and then 2.60 to revisit the mid to high 2.50s.
     
  20. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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