The Trading Floor - 2019

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Jan 1, 2019.


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  1. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Hi Sis Starshine,

    Nice to hear from you again and very, very pleasurable for me to finally have a long post to read.
    Nowadays, the postings here are one liners or 2 or 3 liners.
    Rarely a post as long as yours.
    Thank you for your well wishes. Yes, the folks over there at SJ Branch of The Trading Floor is always lively and full of people
    becoz like I said, there, SJ will do all the marketing and recruiting of new members whilst I focus on writing my usual long winded
    postings only. Over there, also got people come people go but become got enough fresh blood keeps coming, the blood never
    run dry and the organs can keep working. We have a good thing going on there. People are learning to be chicken traders. In
    the past, they only knew how to BUY & HOLE. Not anymore. After seeing my P & L and realising what chicken run can do for
    them, they have all become chicken converts and happily doing the runs themselves. And HUATing. Many of them posted their
    P & L. I know you saw them. You also can do the same hor. If they can do it, so can you.

    As for Richman, last few days he has been quite active posting, trading and HUATing. If you go there now to look for him...same
    username... you can find him there. Do sign up for an account using your same username and we can continue our discussions
    there. Hope to see you there soon.
     
  2. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 10): RHB Research is keeping Wilmar International as its “top pick” for exposure to the plantation sector despite an unexciting year ahead for CPO prices.

    “We believe Wilmar will outperform the sector as its exposure to the downstream space could help to mitigate the lower earnings in the plantation segment,” says analyst Juliana Cai in a Thursday report.

    In addition, the potential A-share listing of its China operations could unlock some latent value in the stock through special dividends and a share price rerating, adds the analyst.

    “Maintain ‘buy’ and $3.58 target price, 13% upside, with 3% FY19F yield,” says Cai.

    Wilmar currently derives 50% of its revenue from China. Since the acquisition of Kuok Group’s oils & grains business in 2007, the company has grown rapidly in China, with a revenue CAGR of 10%.

    At present, the group is the largest edible oil refiner, rice and flour miller, and specialty fats cum oleochemicals manufacturer in China. It is also a leading oilseed crusher, and has the largest market share for China’s branded consumer pack oils, rice and flour.

    Unofficially, valuation of A-shares IPO is capped at 23x historical P/E. Assuming Wilmar floats 10% of its China operations at 20x FY18F P/E, the group is expected to raise US$1.3 billion ($1.8 billion).

    “If 40% of the proceeds are paid out to investors, this will translate to a special dividend of 11 cents per share,” says Cai.

    At 20x FY18F P/E, RHB estimates the China entity could be listed with a total market capitalisation of $12.8 billion or 87% of Wilmar’s current market cap.

    Using a SOP valuation, Wilmar’s stock could be worth $4.37 after a rerating, implying 37% upside from the current level, adds Cai.

    Elsewhere outside China, exposure in downstream palm products should mitigate unexciting CPO prices this year.

    For instance, rising biodiesel mandates in Malaysia and Indonesia should also benefit Wilmar.

    Since biodiesel has higher margins, Cai believes this could help mitigate the effect of soft CPO prices. However, low crude oil prices may reduce demand for discretionary blending.
     
  3. starshine

    starshine Well-Known Member

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    Hi everyone and a Very Happy New Year, better late then never.

    Yes very few of us left in this forum. I'm aware Bro NB has started a thread in SJ and v lively there.
    Hv known Bro NB for so v v long and he is so honest and unselfish in trying to help others.
    V hard to find another person like him. V happy for you Bro NB that you are now so successful in your trading.
    You deserve to huat big big for being so caring.

    Also thanks to Bro Amator for posting share info and updates.

    Plutus, Sotong and Koaladreaming, hi hi, we are the only ones left :)

    Btw, is Bro Richmond still here?
    If I remember correctly, he used to trade HK Land.
    Want to ask him or anyone what is the outlook on this one.
    I was caught with this long ago at $7.30 and it went down to below $6
    These few days it moved up quite a lot now $6.80 so dunno shud I cut or not la.

    Anyway, wish all a huat huat year in 2019.


     
  4. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  5. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    haha... I belong to "cure sai team" . Which sometime kana arrow to do things.. that i dont even have a clue... but just go in and try...
     
  6. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 9): Singapore Exchange (SGX) has reported total Securities market turnover of $16.7 billion over 20 trading days in December 2018, down 13% compared to a year ago.

    This was 22% lower than the preceding month of November 2018, which had 21 trading days.

    Securities daily average value (SDAV) was $837 million in December 2018, down 19% month-on-month and down 13% year-on-year.

    Market turnover value of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) was $227 million, up 55% m-o-m and up 14% y-o-y.

    During the month, there were two Catalist listings and 28 new bond listings, raising $15.2 million and $14.2 billion, respectively.

    As at end December, total market capitalisation value of the 741 companies listed on SGX stood at $936.87 billion.

    On the Derivatives front, total volume rose 17% y-o-y to 18.35 million. However, this was 7% m-o-m lower than in November 2018.

    Equity Index Futures volume was 14.36 million, down 5% m-o-m and up 14% y-o-y.

    FTSE China A50 Index Futures volume was 7.23 million, down 15% m-o-m and up 13% y-o-y.

    SGX Nifty 50 Index Futures volume was 1.56 million, down 2% m-o-m and down 17% y-o-y.

    Meanwhile, SGX Commodities Derivatives volume grew 13% y-o-y to 1.27 million. This was 32% m-o-m lower than in November 2018.

    Iron Ore Derivatives volume was 1.08 million, down 33% m-o-m and up 10% y-o-y.

    Forward Freight Derivatives volume was 45,096, down 58% m-o-m and up 25% y-o-y.

    Volume of SICOM Rubber Futures, the world’s price benchmark for physical rubber, was 135,491, down 3% m-o-m and up 34% y-o-y.
     
  7. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Waaa.... Sos Sotong is a Regional Manager ar? Beh Pai leh. aa-1i.gif
     
  8. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    Hi bro koala..sorry missed your earlier message... arrowed to travel a fair bit recently..so unable to do email catchup...

    wishing you happy and huat huat new year too.
     
  9. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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  10. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers
     
  11. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  12. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 8): OCBC Bank is expecting Singapore office REITs to strengthen further in the near-term this year – and possibly, in the process, demand higher rents to bring about positive rental reversion.

    In a Tuesday report, OCBC’s credit research team highlights office REITs as a bright spot among Singapore REITs (S-REITs), with the recent trend of strong new office supply looking to reverse in 2019.

    “Based on Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) caveats, the office supply pipeline is only 527,000 sq ft for the entire 2019. This is a drastic change from 2018 where 1.4 million sq ft TOP between 1Q-3Q18. With supply easing, we think there is room for rental prices to continue to climb and occupancy rates to improve further, possibly till the next wave of supply, which is coming in 2021/22,” notes OCBC.

    OCBC particularly highlights how all office REITs under its coverage have stronger portfolio occupancy compared to the market, save for Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) due to its lease expiration for HP Enterprise Singapore and a reduction in leased area by HP Singapore at Alexandra Technopark.

    Nonetheless, the bank expects FCOT’s leasing situation to improve going forward. It also believes the lease expiries at CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT) and Suntec REIT are well-timed to benefit from the strong positive momentum seen in the office segment.

    Citing 3Q18 data from CBRE Research, OCBC notes that Grade ‘A’ office rent in Singapore has maintained a fairly strong growth trajectory and in fact, appears close to realising positive rental reversion.

    Its research team however remains cognisant of property-specific stress related risks – especially in the case of older assets and those in the fringe of the central business district (CBD), as they may lose their competitiveness to newer buildings with more efficient floor plates, design and specifications.

    “A divergence in the office market is possible is possible if refurbishments of older assets are not conducted in a timely manner,” cautions OCBC.

    On the other hand, the bank says the outlook remains challenging for retail REITs as it continues to undergo a prolonged structural change, despite slowing supply and still-healthy demand from diverse tenants.

    While it expects more corporate activity for industrial REITs this year on the back with improved supply-demand fundamentals, its research team believes lease rates will remain flat throughout the first half of 2019.

    “Perhaps we are merely halfway through the lost decade; Singapore residential property prices as of 3Q2018 have yet to recover to the peak in 3Q2013. We think the outlook ahead looks subdued due to supply overhang from an expected uptick in launches in 2019-20 with a less-rosy economic outlook while sentiments have already deteriorated following the introduction of the Jul 2018 property cooling measures,” concludes OCBC.
     
  13. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 8): Credit Suisse is recommending Singapore investors stick with a portfolio of quality, high-yield stocks and stocks with low embedded expectations to ride out any volatility in 2019 while positioning for a market recovery.

    And while the market’s upward momentum this year may be dulled by dimmer economic and corporate earnings growth outlook, the Swiss investment bank says the below-historical average market P/E of 11.4x and a compelling dividend yield of 4.4% make for an attractive risk-reward proposition for longer-term investors.

    In a Tuesday research report, Kum Soek Ching, Head of Southeast Asia Research, Private Banking Research, Credit Suisse, says 2018 is likely to have marked the peak in growth momentum for Singapore banks.

    After a broad-based slowdown in loan growth in 3Q, indeed UOB and OCBC have guided for mid-to-high single-digit growth and DBS for mid-single-digit growth in 2019 as demand for mortgages and trade finance softens.

    As two rate hikes are expected in 2019 and loan repricing continues with a lag, Kum says there is still room for margins to expand as US rates rise although an increase in funding cost as liquidity tightens or a pause in US Federal Reserve rate hikes will be key risks to margins.

    With corporate earnings under pressure from a slower economy and weaker business sentiment, Kum believes SREITs’ earnings predictability and more defensive yields position the sector well for an outperformance. All REIT sub-sectors are also expected to post marginally positive distribution per unit (DPU) growth in. Credit Suisse favours selected retail, office and data centre REITs.

    “We see a bottoming in retail rents as supply growth fades after 2019, with REIT-managed shopping malls faring better than island-wide retail space,” says Kum. While the office rental recovery is more mature than other sub-sectors and spot rent increase could moderate with slowing of the economy, office REITs should finally see the office upcycle filtering down to positive rent reversion in 2019.

    In a year of slowing GDP growth, Credit Suisse expects softer new sales and flat housing prices in 2019. As price upside is likely to be capped by policy risks and the perceived government tolerance threshold, Kum does not see a meltdown in the property market in the absence of a major disequilibrium in supply-demand.

    Based on data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority, supply and completion of private residential units should average 10,580 units a year in the next four years, versus a 10-year historical average net demand of 11,400 units.

    “Major property developers are trading at price-to-book of 0.50x to 0.70x, or almost at their previous lows in 2015.” says Kum, “This is consistent with the deepest valuation discount during the corrective phase in 2013–2016. We see limited downside risk to the stocks.”

    The Singapore telcos sector underperformed the market in 2018 on concerns over competitive risk from the impending entry of TPG and Kum expects “competition to rise in the months ahead as players move to lock in new and current customers.”

    Meanwhile, the maturing mobile market and structural decline in traditional revenue streams have driven the telcos to shift their focus toward developing more offerings in the enterprise space, such as cybersecurity, and rationalising costs.

    Given that the telcos have some of the best datasets on their customers, there should be room for them to better monetise the data through new solutions, in areas such as digital marketing. However, since many of these new growth opportunities are outside of the telcos’ traditional business, Credit Suisse says they need to close their technological gaps by pursuing more mergers and acquisitions (M&A).

    “We believe SingTel will be an exception due to its robust balance sheet. Its earnings should also be more resilient to rising competition, as it has the lowest exposure to Singapore. Its 2019E dividend yield of 6% remains sustainable, in our opinion,” says Kum.

    As for O&M conglomerates in Singapore which have underperformed the market in 2018 due to lower-than-expected new order achievements. The renewed weakness in the oil price in the last quarter of 2018 has also dimmed the recovery potential in the rigs sector. Still, an improving rigs utilisation rate, a nascent improvement in demand for new-builds and a peak in new rigs supply in 2019 bode well for a bottoming in the rigs market, adds Kum. Meanwhile, most exploration and production companies have adjusted their capex plan to a lower long-term oil price assumption of between US$50 and US$60.
     
  14. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 8): Maybank Kim Eng remains “neutral” on Singapore’s technology sector while lowering its target prices across the relevant stocks under its coverage.

    This comes after the research house cut its earnings forecasts to factor in heightened macro uncertainties, as well as higher cost of equity due to increased volatility within the sector.

    In a Monday report, Maybank analyst Lai Gene Lih highlights Hi-P International as the most vulnerable to the US-China trade war and macro uncertainties, due to pricing pressures and exposure to highly cyclical end-markets.

    As such, the research house has downgraded its call on the stock to “sell” from “hold”, with a lower target price of 68 cents compared to 84 cents previously.

    Venture Corp remains its top “buy” pick despite a lower price target of $17.48 compared to $22.23 previously, as the research house continues to believe a number of factors could cushion the effects of the US-China trade war or a potential downturn in US capex spending.

    Lai says fundamentals remain intact for Venture, with the company being a potential beneficiary of the US-China trade war, considering its sizeable production out of Singapore and Malaysia.

    The group’s exponential rise in R&D in recent years is expected to underpin future revenue growth, while its customer and end-market diversity could also cushion the effects of macroeconomic factors, he adds.

    “Our target price is now based on 2 times FY19E P/BV, from 2.5 times previously. It implies 14.4 times FY19E P/E, just slightly below its 14-year mean of 15.3 times. Strong cash generation should continue to support dividend yields, in our view,” says Lai.

    Valuetronics also remains at “buy” with a lower price target of 90 cents compared to 96 cents previously.

    Despite cutting earnings estimates and increasing COE, Maybank favours the stock for its “robust prospects” at its automotive, printing and consumer lifestyle businesses, as well as attractive 6-7% dividend yield.

    While Lai sees increased volatility for the stock going forward, he believes automotive, printing and consumer lifestyle still appear solid with “secular prospects” for automotive connectivity and smart lighting, in particular.

    “We believe Valuetronics can maintain its decade-long double-digit ROEs through healthy pricing, cost control and disciplined capex… While Valuetronics has signalled M&A intentions in recent years, we believe it can fund any acquisition with its strong cash of HKD800 million ($138.4 million), which forms 48% of its market cap,” concludes the analyst.
     
  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  16. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 7): CapitaLand has formed a 50:50 joint venture with an unrelated third party to acquire 70% of Pufa Tower in Shanghai, China, for RMB2,752 million ($546.3 million).

    Pufa Tower is 34-storey tall with three basement levels of car park. On completion of the transaction, CapitaLand and its joint venture partner will own levels 8 to 19 and levels 21 to 32 with a total gross floor area (GFA) of 41,773 sq m, as well as 61 car park lots with property title. Pufa Tower’s ground floor lobby and refuge floor on level 20 are co-owned with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, which owns the rest of the building.

    Lujiazui CBD, where Pufa Tower is located, is Shanghai’s most coveted office location for financial and professional services companies. With an unabating demand for office space and limited new supply, Lujiazui CBD commands the highest office rents in the city. In view of a sharp decline in Pudong’s office supply from 2019, office rents in Lujiazui CBD are expected to continue trending upwards over the next few years.

    The operational office property has been identified as a seed asset for a value-add fund which CapitaLand is setting up to invest in commercial real estate in key gateway cities in Asia. The acquisition also marks the group’s first office property in Shanghai’s core Lujiazui central business district (CBD) in Pudong New Area.

    Lucas Loh, President (China & Investment Management), CapitaLand Group, says: “We are pleased to enter Shanghai’s core Lujiazui CBD soon after securing our third Raffles City development in the city... The acquisition of Pufa Tower, an operational asset, will immediately contribute to the Group’s recurring income.”

    With more than 1,300 multinational companies headquartered in Shanghai, the city continues to power ahead as China’s financial and business centre. In 2017, Shanghai became the first Chinese city to top GDP of RMB3.0 trillion, of which contribution from Pudong accounted for about 30%2. The continual expansion of Shanghai’s financial sector is expected to drive the demand for prime office space in Pudong.

    Including this latest acquisition, CapitaLand now owns and manages 21 commercial properties in Shanghai that span close to 1.9 million sq m in GFA.
     
  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  18. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Wilmar... 3.11 : 3.12... can buy. She is on her way to 3.18-3.20.

    Capitaland... 3.05 : 3.06....on her way to 3.18-3.20 as well.
     
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  20. plutus2

    plutus2 Well-Known Member

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    Good morning, STI trying hard to stay head above 3000
     
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