The Trading Floor - 2019

Discussion in 'The Trading Floor' started by Amator, Jan 1, 2019.


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  1. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 24): The manager of CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMT) on Wednesday announced that its 4Q18 DPU has risen by 3.1% y-o-y to 2.99 cents, bringing FY18 DPU to 11.50 cents, 3.0% higher y-o-y.

    This came on the back of 4.7% y-o-y increase in gross revenue to $180.5 million and a 4.3% y-o-y increase in net property income to $124.4 million.

    Following the results announcement, DBS Group Research is maintaining its “buy” call on CMT with a target price of $2.44.

    In a Thursday report, analyst Carmen Tay says that CMY delivered yet another solid quarter, returning to growth in FY18, with the results coming in above her expectations.

    “We also note the broad-based improvement in NPI across CMT’s portfolio malls, particularly for its suburban assets. Coupled with contributions from Westgate, they more than offset the income vacuum left by the sale of Sembawang Shopping Centre in June 2018,” says Tay.

    “The quantum of portfolio rental reversions – at +0.7% for FY18 while unexciting at first glance, reflects sequential improvement. We believe that this is a positive signal that things are improving and that pressures in the retail space are bottoming out,” adds Tay.

    Gearing levels rose to 34.2% in 4Q18 from 31.7% in the previous quarter, following the Westgate acquisitions, which was 65% debt funded. This is still within the research house’s target range. And while average cost of debt was stable at c.3.1%, the average term to maturity was shortened from 5.2 to 4.4 years.

    The manager is cognisant of frictional impact on footfall post the launch of Jewel, but believes that malls within the Tampines cluster should remain resilient given defensive attributes. The worst is also over for Westgate, which led growth among CMT’s portfolio malls, and is set to fare better ahead as it emerges from the completion of its AEI and new concept launches.

    On the other hand, Funan is poised for launch at the end of 2Q19 and is seeing improved leasing momentum, with about 80% commitments already.

    “For FY19F-20F, we believe that incremental contributions from Westgate and the return of Funan would help accelerate CMT’s DPU growth momentum. Plans to take on selective AEI and redevelopment opportunities at lower-performing malls may provide further upside over the medium term,” says Tay.

    Separately, Phillip Capital is keeping a “neutral” recommendation on CMT with a target price of $2.09.

    Tenant sales saw a slight 0.5% y-o-y increase in FY18, with recovery in more trade categories this year, with the Food & Beverage, Fashion, and Beauty & Health categories turning around to clock in positive tenant sales growth.

    The trust also managed to maintain a stable portfolio occupancy of 99.2% amid AEI works at Westgate and Tampines Mall.

    However, on a portfolio basis, rental reversions barely moved a percentage point in FY18, despite the underlying recovery in tenant sales growth.

    In addition, the trust’s balance sheet metrics seem to be deteriorating. Consolidation of debt from Infinity Mall Trust (which holds Westgate) has now resulted in a shorter term to maturity of 4.4 years and a higher leverage. Westgate has also now been pledged as collateral – all other assets are still unencumbered.

    In a Thursday report, analyst Tara Wong believes that AEIs at Tampines Mall and Westgate could bring in higher footfall and tenant sales – and this is starting to be evident in the turnaround in rental reversions recorded in FY18.

    Similarly, Maybank Kim Eng has a “hold” call on CMT with an increased target price of $2.25 from $2.20 previously.

    In a Wednesday report, analyst Chua Su Tye says, “CMT has worked hard on its recycling efforts; Westgate deepens its long-term suburban footprint while a rejuvenated Funan should support DPUs. Retail sector fundamentals are still soft, with near-term demand-supply balance to be tested by Jewel’s opening in Mar 2019.”

    CMT reported a +0.7% rental reversion for FY18, up slightly from +0.6% for 9M18, and versus -1.7% for FY17. Shopper traffic declined 0.9% y-o-y, while tenants' sales rose 0.5% YoY which was attributed to the stronger performances at its suburban malls.

    Among the retail REITs, Maybank prefers Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) given its strengthening suburban mall footprint, visible growth drivers, strong balance sheet and potential acquisition catalysts.

    As at 12.25pm, units in CMT are trading 2 cents higher at $2.33 or 19.1 times FY19 earnings, with a distribution yield of 5.1%.
     
  2. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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    morning snipers
     
  3. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  4. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    upload_2019-1-24_7-4-57.png
     
  5. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    Singapore, 24 January 2019 – CapitaLand Commercial Trust Management Limited, the Manager of CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT or Trust), is pleased to report distributable income of S$83.1 million for the quarter ended 31 December 2018 (4Q 2018), an uplift of 10.7% from 4Q 2017. Distribution per unit (DPU) was 2.22 cents, 6.7% higher than the 2.08 cents a year ago. Gross revenue and net property income for the quarter increased by 14.8% and 16.6% year-on-year respectively. The better performance was largely attributed to the contributions from newly acquired Asia Square Tower 2 and Gallileo, which more than offset the loss of income from the divestment of Twenty Anson.

    For 2H 2018, distributable income was S$165.7 million, an increase of 11.9% from 2H 2017. For FY 2018, distributable income was 11.4% higher than a year ago. Based on FY 2018 DPU of 8.70 cents and closing price per unit of $1.83 on 23 January 2019, CCT’s distribution yield is 4.8%. The books closure date is Friday, 1 February 2019 and the 2H 2018 DPU of 4.42 cents is expected to be paid on Thursday, 28 February 2019.

    ====================
    4.42c
    xd 31/Jan
     
  6. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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    Amator Dai Lole.... Suntec XD is 30th Jan or 31st Jan har?
    $warrior at SJ posted 31 Jan.
    Can double confirm which one is correct? Thanks.
     
  7. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 23): ARA Trust Management, the manager to Suntec REIT, announced DPU for 4Q18 declined by 0.5% to 2.59 cents, compared to 2.60 cents in 4Q17.

    This brings DPU for FY18 to 9.988 cents, 0.2% lower than 10.005 cents in FY17.

    Distributable income for the quarter was 0.3% higher at $69.5 million from $69.3 million a year ago.

    Gross revenue increased by 7.0% to $93.5 million, compared to $87.3 million in the previous year, mainly due to higher revenue contribution from Suntec Singapore, 177 Pacific Highway and Suntec City. The increase in retail revenue of $1.4 million due to positive rental reversion was partially mitigated by $0.3 million decline in office revenue.

    Suntec Singapore’s revenue contribution for the quarter of $23.8 million comprises $18.8 million from convention and $5.0 million from retail, an increase of 17.8% and 4.4% respectively compared to 4Q17.

    Property expenses saw a 17.0% y-o-y increase to $32.7 million, bringing net property income for 4Q17 to $60.7 million, 2.3% higher than $59.4 million last year.

    Share of profit of joint ventures jumped 77.2% y-o-y to $44.3 million.

    Finance expenses increased 28.4% y-o-y to $28.2 million.

    The overall committed occupancy for the office and retail portfolios stood at 98.7% and 99.1% respectively as at Dec 31, 2018.

    Chong Kee Hiong, CEO of the manager, says, “We have executed a successful multipronged strategy to reposition Suntec City Mall. In 2018, Suntec City’s footfall increased by 4.8% year-on-year to 47 million and tenants’ sales registered a 5.2% growth year-on-year. We expect Suntec City Mall to continue to perform well in 2019 as we curate exciting offerings to strengthen Suntec City’s ecosystem and deliver greater value to our shoppers.”

    “In view of the rising interest rate environment, we will continue our prudent capital management strategy and proactively manage the refinancing of the loan due in 2019,” adds Chong.

    ----------------------------------
    XD 30/Jan ........
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2019
  8. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  9. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 23): The manager of CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMT) announced that its 4Q18 DPU has increased by 3.1% to 2.99 cents, compared to 2.90 cents in 4Q17.

    This brings the DPU for FY18 to 11.50 cents, 3.0% higher than 11.16 cents in FY17.

    Distributable income to unitholders was 5.1% higher in 4Q18 at $108.1 million from $102.9 million last year.

    Gross revenue for the quarter came in at $180.5 million, 4.7% higher than $172.4 million a year ago, with higher contribution from the trust’s gross rental income and other income, but partially offset by lower car park income.

    This increase in revenue was mainly attributable the acquisition of Infinity Mall Trust (IMT), completed on Nov 1, 2018. IMT is now a subsidiary of CMT and its results are consolidated at CMT Group. The increase was also due to higher other income as well as higher gross rental income from IMM and Bedok Mall.

    The increase was partially offset by lower gross revenue from Sembawang Shopping Centre which was divested on June 18, 2018 and lower occupancy for JCube, Lot One Shoppers’ Mall and Clarke Quay.

    Property operating expenses increased by 5.4% y-o-y to $56.0 million, bringing net property income of 4Q18 to $124.4 million, 4.3% higher than $119.3 million in the previous year.

    Finance costs was 3.3% higher y-o-y at $27.0 million, mainly due to interest on IMT’s bank borrowings which was consolidated at CMT Group after the acquisition and term loans drawn down to part finance the acquisition. But partially offset by repayment of bank borrowing in Jan 2018 and refinancing of EMTN of US$400 million in Mar 2018 at lower interest rates.

    The loans were partially repaid with net proceeds from divestment of Sembawang Shopping Centre in June 2018 and MTN issuances at lower interest rates in FY18.

    During the quarter, the trust spent $8.98 million in costs associated with acquisition of subsidiary, which was absent last year.

    However, CMT saw a 54.6% y-o-y increase in share of results (net of tax) of joint ventures to $16.7 million.

    Adj Professor Richard R Magnus, chairman of the manager, says, “Cognisant of the challenges ahead – which include slowdown in the global and Singapore economies, uncertainty in the interest rate environment and competition from the completion of new shopping malls – we remain vigilant and will continually explore new ways to differentiate our malls from the competition and increase customer engagement.”


    ----------------------------

    Distribution of 1.56 cents ..... XD 30/Jan ........
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2019
  10. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    DAVOS, Switzerland (Jan 21): The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its world economic growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, due to weakness in Europe and some emerging markets, and said failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilise a slowing global economy.

    In its second downgrade in three months, the global lender also cited a bigger-than-expected slowdown in China’s economy and a possible “No Deal” Brexit as risks to its outlook, saying these could worsen market turbulence in financial markets.

    The IMF predicted the global economy to grow at 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, down 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point respectively from last October’s forecasts.

    The new forecasts, released ahead of this week’s gathering of world leaders and business executives in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, show that policymakers may need to come up with plans to deal with an end to years of solid global growth.

    “Risks to global growth tilt to the downside. An escalation of trade tensions beyond those already incorporated in the forecast remains a key source of risk to the outlook,” the IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook report.

    “Higher trade policy uncertainty and concerns over escalation and retaliation would lower business investment, disrupt supply chains and slow productivity growth. The resulting depressed outlook for corporate profitability could dent financial market sentiment and further dampen growth.”

    The downgrades reflected signs of weakness in Europe, with its export powerhouse Germany hurt by new fuel emission standards for cars and with Italy under market pressure due to Rome’s recent budget standoff with the European Union.

    Growth in the euro zone is set to moderate from 1.8% in 2018 to 1.6% in 2019, 0.3 percentage point lower than projected three months ago, the IMF said.

    The IMF also cut its 2019 growth forecast for developing countries to 4.5%, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous projection and a slowdown from 4.7% in 2018.

    “Emerging market and developing economies have been tested by difficult external conditions over the past few months amid trade tensions, rising US interest rates, dollar appreciation, capital outflows, and volatile oil prices,” the IMF said.

    The IMF maintained its US growth projections of 2.5% this year and 1.8% in 2020, pointing to continued strength in domestic demand.

    It also kept its China growth forecast at 6.2% in both 2019 and 2020, but said economic activity could miss expectations if trade tensions persist, even with state efforts to spur growth by boosting fiscal spending and bank lending.

    “As seen in 2015–16, concerns about the health of China’s economy can trigger abrupt, wide-reaching sell-offs in financial and commodity markets that place its trading partners, commodity exporters, and other emerging markets under pressure,” it said.

    Britain is expected to achieve 1.5% growth this year though there is uncertainty over the projection, which is based on the assumption of an orderly exit from the EU, the IMF said.

    The rare bright spot was Japan, with the IMF revising up its forecast by 0.2%age point to 1.1% this year due to an expected boost from the government’s spending measures, which aim to offset a scheduled sales-tax hike in October.

    The IMF has been urging policymakers to carry out structural reforms while the global economy enjoys solid growth, with its managing director, Christine Lagarde, telling them to “fix the roof while the sun is shining”. The IMF has stressed the need to address income inequality and reform the financial sector.

    However, as growth momentum peaks and risks to the outlook rise, policymakers must now focus on policies to prevent further slowdowns, the IMF said.

    “The main shared policy priority is for countries to resolve cooperatively and quickly their trade disagreements and the resulting policy uncertainty, rather than raising harmful barriers further and destabilising an already slowing global economy,” it added.
     
  11. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    (Jan 21): President Xi Jinping stressed the need to maintain political stability in an unusual meeting of China’s top leaders -- a fresh sign the ruling party is growing concerned about the social implications of the slowing economy.

    Xi told a “seminar” of top provincial leaders and ministers in Beijing on Monday that the Communist Party needed greater efforts “to prevent and resolve major risks,” the official Xinhua News Agency said. He said areas of concern facing the leadership ranged from politics and ideology to the economy, environment and external situation.

    “The party is facing long-term and complex tests in terms of maintaining long-term rule, reform and opening-up, a market-driven economy, and within the external environment,” Xi said, according to Xinhua. “The party is facing sharp and serious dangers of a slackness in spirit, lack of ability, distance from the people, and being passive and corrupt. This is an overall judgment based on the actual situation.”

    Although Xi has issued similar warnings, including in February 2018, Monday’s statements contained signs of greater urgency. The mention of the “serious” threats to the party’s “long-standing rule” appeared new. A full transcript of his remarks to the closed-door gathering wasn’t immediately available.

    ‘Red Flashes’

    “Xi is seeing more and more red flashes on his monitor as things on many fronts go wrong,” said Ether Yin, partner at Beijing based consultancy Trivium China. “He wanted to draw the whole system’s attention to that.”

    The meeting was held on the same day that China reported its slowest quarterly economic growth since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009. The data underscored concerns that the decades-long economic expansion that helped the ruling party outlast most other communist regimes may be running out of steam.

    Chinese leaders are also coping with a more confrontational US under President Donald Trump, who has slapped tariffs on hundreds of billions worth of dollars of Chinese goods, roiling financial markets around the world. Xi faces added pressure to personally resolve the issues after obtaining a constitutional change that allows him to rule indefinitely.

    The meeting appears to have been scheduled recently, since several provincial legislatures rescheduled their annual meetings to accommodate the event. State media offered no advance notice of the gathering.

    Unusual Timing

    While Xi has occasionally assembled the party’s more than 200-member Central Committee to “study” pressing issues, this was the first such seminar held without convening a full meeting of the body. A Central Committee meeting known as a plenum was expected late last year -- a point in the political cycle when the party usually tackles economic policies -- but has yet to be announced.

    Communist leaders are facing a year rich with sensitive dates, including the 70th anniversary of the country’s founding on Oct 1 and the 30th anniversary of the party’s crackdown on democracy activists in Tiananmen Square on June 4. Such occasions have sometimes helped coalesce criticism of the regime, and China often rounds up dissidents in advance.

    “That’s a cocktail that could be explosive as people realize the CCP is no longer delivering the goods on the social contract,” said Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and former senior director for Asia on the National Security Council. “The slowdown of the economy to rates not experienced in the reform area is uncharted territory for this generation of leaders of the Communist Party.”
     
  12. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  13. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 21): ST Engineering announced that its electronics arm has secured $351 million worth of contracts in 4Q18, bringing the total amount of contract wins in 2018 to $2.19 billion.

    These contracts were for its solutions in mobility, satellite communications, Internet of Things (IoT), and cybersecurity, as well as defence.

    The group secured contracts to supply a Passenger Information System for Shanghai Metro Line 14, and Platform Screen Doors for Bangkok’s MRT line.

    In Singapore, contracts were secured to supply communications systems for Circle Line Stage 6 and Thomson Line, as well as maintenance works on the Expressway Monitoring and Advisory System.

    ST’s electronics sector also joined the global SATis5G Consortium funded by the European Space Agency (ESA), to promote the cost-effective integration of satellite technology into 5G networks.

    It also partnered Kymeta to create a seamless, real-time communications hub for first responders at the frontlines that can make a difference between life and death in emergency situations.

    The group was also appointed for the Lamppost-as-a-Platform trial in Geylang and one-north business park in Buona Vista with smart, connected lamp posts. This project is a part of the Singapore government’s Smart Nation drive.

    It also secured contracts to enable near real-time management of urban water resources and smart street lightning in cities in New Zealand, Canada, Sweden, Israel and the USA.

    ST Engineering’s award-winning AgilFence Perimeter Intrusion Detection System, which had been evaluated for US aviation use after completing a rigorous testing process by US-based National Safe Skies Alliance, was selected by SP Group to provide a stronger and robust security infrastructure for 48 of its critical power substations.

    The SkyArcher Counter Drone system was also delivered to counter increasing drone threats in Singapore’s airspace.

    In addition, it was also awarded contracts for the delivery of cybersecurity products including data diodes and the DiskCrypt M10.

    Contracts for defence solutions were won for soldier optics, training and instrumentation systems, as well as Command, Control, Communications and Computers (C4) solutions.

    All the above projects will be completed progressively. The contracts are also not expected to have any material impact on the consolidated net tangible assets per share and earnings for the current financial year.
     
  14. sotong11

    sotong11 Well-Known Member

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  15. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  16. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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  17. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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  18. Amator

    Amator Well-Known Member

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    SINGAPORE (Jan 17): UOB is maintaining its “hold” recommendation on Singapore Airlines (SIA) with a lower target price of $10.20, from $10.40 previously. The research house’s suggested entry level is $9.00.

    This came after the group announced its Dec 2018 operating results on Tuesday, which saw overall passenger load factor (PLF) increase by 0.3 percentage points (ppt) to 85%, compared to 84.7% a year ago. SIA also outpaced capacity injection of 6.8% in terms of available seat kilometres.

    The parent airline saw PLF increase 1ppt to 85.5%, marking its ninth consecutive month of improvement as traffic outpaced capacity growth.

    3Q19’s load factor was also up 1.8ppt, which holds scope for improved profitability.

    During the quarter, SIA noted that revenue relative to seat capacity (RASK) remained resilient. In 2Q19, RASK improved by 3.1%, while yields fell 1%.

    In a Thursday report, analyst K Ajith says, “For pax yields to remain at least flat y-o-y, RASK would have to rise by 2.2% in 3Q19.”

    However, cargo traffic saw its third consecutive month of decline, which according to the analyst, is not surprising. This is due to slowing global trade and restocking ahead of the imposition of tariffs by the US.

    Moreover, leading indicators such as weak PMI now seem to suggest that the trend of weaker cargo will accelerate into 2020.

    Scoot also saw PLF declining for two consecutive months and Ajith reckons that the carrier is likely to report a loss. This is due to repeated flight delays and concerns over problems with the Rolls Royce engine on the Dreamliners, which are also expected to affect demand going forward.

    Over the medium term, airline companies could be hit by higher jet fuel costs as IMO2020 kicks in. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) mandates that by Jan 2020, shipping companies cut marine fuel’s sulphur content to less than 0.5%. Some experts believe that this will cause a shortage of supply for other energy distillates, including jet fuel.
     
  19. nottibird

    nottibird Moderator

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