STI Component stock yields and Reits Stock yields

Discussion in 'Acquistion Targets' started by Milo-Dino, Dec 9, 2011.


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  1. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    nottibird,

    Innocent until proven guilty; the uptrend of the STI is still intact.

    My longer term view for the STI is "kopi-o-di-low" and "Kopi-o-dai-dai".

    The crux of the STI is @ 3181, the neckline of the H&S formation.

    The 2013 Bradley Turn Dates would still be valid if 3181 is broken convincingly on 22nd Jun 2013.

    Straits Times IndexTrading in an upward sloping channel

    STI closed with a spinning top @ 3291.08 (-20.29, -0.6%) on 3 Jun 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3300, immediate support @ 3250, next support @ 3235, strong support @ 3181.

    [​IMG]

     
  2. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Straits Times IndexTrading in an upward sloping channel

    STI has a hammer @ 3317.49 (-18.52, -0.6%) on 31 May 2013 at 3.35pm.

    Immediate resistance @ 3322, next resistance @ 3347, the 50d SMA.

    Immediate support @ 3300, next support @ 3270, crucial support @ 3235, strong support @ 3181, the 200d SMA.

    [​IMG]

     
  3. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    nottibird,

    As a strong believer in TA, I can't pluck any numbers from the sky and post the answer here.

    Innocent until proven guilty; the uptrend of STI is still intact, the crux is @ 3181, the 200d SMA.

    Straits Times IndexLong-term uptrend is firmly intact

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: May 31, 2013
  4. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    nottibird,

    As a strong believer in TA, I can't pluck any numbers from the sky and post the answer here.

    Innocent until proven guilty; the uptrend of STI is still intact, the crux is @ 3181, the 200d SMA.

    Straits Times IndexLong-term uptrend is firmly intact

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: May 31, 2013
  5. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    1. Technical rebound 1st target @ 3344; 2nd target 3366.

    2. A sharp correction of 162 points or 4.7% from the peak @ 3464.79 in 5 trading days is not quite healthy.

    3. Should STI hit 3235 and subsequently 3181, the 200d SMA; expect a bearish trend reversal.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2013
  6. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    發發發,

    Kopi-o-siu-tai is @ 3235, the neckline (1).
    Kopi-o-tai-tai is @ 3181, the neckline (2).

    The crux of the STI is @ 3181, the 200d SMA. The 2013 Bradley Turn Dates would still be valid if 3181 is broken convincingly on 22nd Jun 2013.

    Straits Times IndexH&S formation

    Observations and comments on STI:
    1. The initial bearish signal was a long black marubozu with extremely high vol. which appeared on 23 May 2013.
    2. A mini-bear flag was broken convincingly with a long black marubozu closing @ 3367.47 (-38.61, -1.1%) on 29 May 2013.
    3. On 30 May 2013, STI closed with a long-tailed hammer @ 3336.01 (-31.46, -0.93%) indicating that a short-term technical rebound is imminent.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  7. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    nottibird,

    STI has a complex H&S chart pattern similar to Toyota's chart dated 28 May 2010 (see below).

    Observations and comments on STI:
    1. The initial bearish signal was a long black marubozu with extremely high vol. which appeared on 23 May 2013.
    2. A mini-bear flag was broken convincingly with a long black marubozu closing @ 3367.47 (-38.61, -1.1%) on 29 May 2013.
    3. On 30 May 2013, STI closed with a long-tailed hammer @ 3336.01 (-31.46, -0.93%) indicating that a short-term technical rebound is imminent.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  8. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    nottibird,

    If STI chart has H&S then it's kopi-o-siu-tai but if it's the one below, then it's kopi-o-tai-tai leow...

    The crux of the STI is @ 3181, the 200d SMA. The 2013 Bradley Turn Dates would still be valid if 3181 is broken convincingly on 22nd Jun 2013.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2013
  9. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    "Live by the sword, die by the sword". The "sword" here refers to the top 6 stocks in STI.

    Logically, if the "sword" could swing the STI to hit historical high of 3464.79 on 22nd May 2013,

    it should also have equal strength to swing the STI down by the same magnitude.

    The weightage for each Index stock shows that slight movements of the top 6 stocks could make chartists re-draw the STI chart:

    1. 11% for DBS
    2. 10.9% for Singtel (Joker)
    3. 10.18% for OCBC
    4. 10.18% for UOB
    5. 6.32% for KepCorp
    6. 3.89% for Capitaland

    Total 52.47% for 6 stocks out of 30 stocks

     
  10. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    The crux of the STI is @ 3181, the 200d SMA. The 2013 Bradley Turn Dates would still be valid if 3181 is broken convincingly on 22nd Jun 2013.

     
  11. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    STI may hit the 200d SMA strong support @ 3181 by 22nd Jun 2013.

    (Although the plunge started 1 month earlier on 23rd May 2013, the 2013 Bradley Turn Dates have been eerily accurate since mid-Dec 2012.)

    Why the 200d SMA is important:

    The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is the average price of an asset over a certain period of time. It is calculated by adding up the closing prices over a certain number of time periods, and then dividing by that number of time periods. SMA’s are used to measure momentum. The most watched SMA is the 200 day, it is widely recognized as the dividing line between bull and bear territory.

    Below 200d SMA = BEAR, SELL/SHORT

    Above 200d SMA = BULL, BUY/LONG

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

     
  12. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Straits Times IndexTrading in an upward sloping channel

    STI has a hammer @ 3317.17 (-50.3, -1.5%) on 30 May 2013 at 11.35am.

    Immediate resistance @ 3322, immediate support @ 3300, next support @ 3270, strong support @ 3181, the 200d SMA.

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: May 30, 2013
  13. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Straits Times IndexTrading in an upward sloping channel

    STI closed with a long black marubozu @ 3367.47 (-38.61, -1.1%) on 29 May 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3414, immediate support @ 3366, next support @ 3341, strong support @ 3300.

    [​IMG]

    Fear & Greed Index

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  14. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Straits Times IndexTrading in an upward sloping channel

    STI has a spinning top @ 3393.95 (+0.78, +0.02%) on 27 May 2013 at 12 noon.

    1. Immediate resistance @ 3405.
    2. Immediate support @ 3366.
    3. Next support @ 3341, the 50d SMA.
    4. Strong support @ 3300, the 100d SMA (resistance-turned-support level).

    Technical Indicators:
    1. MACD has a bearish crossover & below the signal line.
    2. Stochastic continues to slope downward.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: May 27, 2013
  15. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Brokers' recommendations on Oil & gas stocksOverall bullish; especially on Vard Holdings

    Idea Of The Week: Oil & Gas

    By Raymond.Leung
    23 May 2013

    [​IMG]
    * Prices are accurate as at 12.30pm on 22 May 2013

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2013
  16. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Mika,

    The STI's uptrend is firmly intact, the current pullback is healthy but long overdue.

    Straits Times IndexTrading in an upward sloping channel

    STI closed with a long black marubozu @ 3393.17 (-61.2, -1.8%) with extremely high volume done at 644,964,800m shares on 23 May 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3405, immediate support @ 3366.

    Strong support @ 3300, the resistance-turned-support level (ref to STI chart dated 1 Mar 2013).

    STI is now trading below the 20d SMA.

    Technical indicators are bearish:
    1. MACD just has a bearish crossover below the signal line on 23 May 2013.
    2. Stochastic (14, 3, 3) has been above 80 for an extended period indicating an extremely overbought condition.
    3. The RSI was also extremely overbought above 70 but it has been trending down since 20 May 2013.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

     
  17. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Mika,

    STI is now trading below the 20d SMA.

    Technical indicators are bearish:

    1. MACD just has a bearish crossover below the signal line on 23 May 2013.

    2. Stochastic (14, 3, 3) has been above 80 for an extended period indicating an extremely overbought condition.

    3. The RSI was also extremely overbought above 70 but it has been trending down since 20 May 2013.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2013
  18. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Straits Times IndexTrading in an upward sloping channel

    STI closed with a long black marubozu @ 3393.17 (-61.2, -1.8%) with extremely high volume done at 644,964,800m shares on 23 May 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3405, immediate support @ 3366.

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: May 24, 2013
  19. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    According to the 2013 Bradley Turn Dates; the market is bullish until 22nd Jun 2013 then it starts to plunge.

    However, it appears that the market starts to plunge one month early starting from today Thursday 23rd May 2013. [​IMG]

    STI on 23rd May 2013 at 3pm

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: May 23, 2013
  20. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Here are signs that Singapore banks' rally may be wearing off

    22 May 2013

    Momentum to slow in 2H.

    According to Macquarie Equities Research, it believes the rally in Singapore bank stocks is looking tired and it would look to pare down holdings at current levels.

    The solid top line numbers of 1Q13 may represent a short-term top for profitability, as business activity may cool off and margins remain under pressure in Singapore in upcoming quarters.

    The stocks are not egregiously expensive but they are trading at levels that we perceive to be slightly above fair value. This implies limited upside risk in light of our overtly bearish house strategy call on Singapore.

    Here's more:

    In our view, 1Q13 was an extremely solid quarter for DBS, and a good quarter for UOB. We were less impressed with OCBC’s results given the weakening pre-provisioning operating profit. In any case, we believe that upcoming quarters may look weaker for all, given slowing business activity and (we assume) lack of major investment banking deals vs 1Q13.

    We thus expect a repetition of the pattern of 2012, which had a strong early start with earnings momentum slowing in 2Q-4Q13.

    The stocks have rallied 15% YTD, ahead of the 8% rise in the FSSTI and the fourth best bank-sector performance by country in Asia. Taken as a whole, the sector is trading at 1.4x 2013E P/BV.

    This is not only the sector’s historical mean, but more importantly in our view this level represents close to fair value – especially given the lack of operational catalysts to the upside. Of the three banks, DBS and UOB are trading at close to our estimate of fair value, while OCBC is most overvalued following the stock’s outperformance YTD.

    This has attracted buying from investors seeking yield and/or a safe haven. While we don’t think this trend will persist, it informs our sense that the downside for the Singapore bank stocks is likely to be limited.

    Operationally, any of the banks could beat our net income forecasts by posting near-zero provisioning, but we don’t think this – coupled with weak PPoP growth – would justify a continued re-rating of valuations. ​

    SingTel dips on broker downgrade

    By Joyce Lim
    Tue May 21, 2013

    Singapore shares edged down, with Singapore Telecommunications Ltd declining 2 percent after OCBC cut its rating on the sector.

    "In the search for yield, telco stocks have done very well, rising some 14 percent to 26 percent year to date, versus the STI's 9 percent climb," OCBC said in a report.

    "However, given the still-muted outlook, we believe that the share prices have run up too much, too quickly, and this has driven yields down to below 5 percent."

    It downgraded the sector to "neutral" from "overweight".

    The brokerage noted that with the exception of M1 Ltd , which expects to see moderate earnings growth this year, both SingTel and StarHub LTd were muted in their outlook.

    The Straits Times index lost 0.6 percent to 3,433.15, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.2 percent.

    Shares of CapitaLand Ltd fell as much as 2.4 percent to their lowest in nearly two weeks after the property developer announced plans to raise up to $520 million in convertible bonds due 2020.
     
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