Nikkei 225

Discussion in 'Acquistion Targets' started by zuolun, Apr 6, 2013.


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  1. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Nikkei closed at 13,589.03 (-737.43, -5.15%) on 30 May 2013.

    High of 14,098.16, low of 13,555.66.

    [​IMG]

    COMMENT: Nikkei nosedive not just a correction

    Fri May 24, 2013 12:42pm EDT

    SO THE VERSION of events being touted by Japan bulls is that last week's one-day 7.3% plunge in the Nikkei represented simply a pullback for a market that had put in its most supercharged performance over six months since 1953. This presents a major buying opportunity for those who believe "Abenomics" and the newly pugilistic Bank of Japan will drag Japan out of its two lost decades - or so the story goes.

    But was Thursday's stock market collapse about equities or really all about bonds? I suspect the latter, as the equity meltdown unfolded after a capitulation in Japanese government bonds that saw yields spike to their highest in a year. Bank of Japan governor Kuroda spoke on Friday about calming bond markets, but ever since he announced the mammoth quantitative easing programme in April the JGB market has turned into a quivering mass of uncertainty bordering on terror.

    It might just be that now the easy money has been made by punting on Japanese equities, a slower grind higher is on the cards after last week's "correction".

    But I'm not convinced it was simply a correction. Rather, it might have been something closer to a realisation that for all the brouhaha of Abenomics, the "three arrows" and the shed-loads of money printing, the Japanese financial authorities are losing the plot.

    HEDGE FUND MANAGER Kyle Bass, whose Hayman Capital fund has returned 25% a year since 2006 and who correctly bet against US mortgage-backed securities, reckons a full-blown Japanese financial crisis is around the corner. And that's because the old status quo of household saving, current account surpluses and low fiscal deficits has been chucked out of the window. There are more spenders than savers in Japan, and the country is close to facing a current account deficit as well as running a budget deficit of more than 10% of GDP.

    Meanwhile, Japan's public debt to GDP is approaching 230%, the highest percentage of any nation in the world, with the debt largely funded domestically.

    A Tokyo-based Japan funding head for a European bank told me last week that bank investors in JGBs had been "shell-shocked" by the recent capital losses they had sustained on their JGB portfolios, and were panicking about how to protect themselves against further losses.

    That wasn't the Kuroda script at all - monthly purchases of JGBs were supposed to pull yields down. But then there's the Alice in Wonderland absurdity of announcing a 2% inflation target as an explicit policy goal and not expecting that nominal yields will have to rise in anticipation of higher real yields in the future, assuming the target is achieved. The market bought that argument over the alternative that JGB purchases by the BoJ would put a ceiling on yields.

    YOU HAVE TO wonder whether last Thursday was a turning point for global financial markets. Collapsing Japanese equities had a knock-on effect on Asian, European and US equities, while JGB yields spiked to their highest in a year and 10-year Treasuries pushed through 2%. Blame was placed on the vaguest of hints from Bernanke that QE3 was about to be tapered off as well as weak manufacturing data from China.

    But might it not have represented a moment of clarity among market players that something is really not quite right in the global economy? Are investors finally noticing that central banks have been forced to resort to desperate measures that represent the failure of ordinary monetary policy, and that fiscal policy in the US, Japan and Europe is no more about fine-tuning but how to confront mountains of debt that threaten to bring the whole house tumbling down?

    THE GREAT US economist JK Galbraith observed that "anything unsustainable cannot be sustained" and it seems that nowhere is that more apposite than when it comes to the Japanese government bond market. It might well have been that the JGB market could have kept chugging along at record-low yields as long as Japan's leaders were willing to accept low growth and deflation as the status quo.

    Indeed, the former BoJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa regarded Japan's deflation as structural, and based on the country's woeful demographic of an ageing and declining population.

    Now, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's grand ambitions threaten to turn the spotlight on the unsustainable nature of the JGB market, which Bass has likened to a Ponzi scheme.

    The bankers in Tokyo tell me there is a widespread mindset of panic among institutional holders of JGBs and that can't be a good thing. Panic tends inevitably to lead to crisis, and goodness knows, after the eurozone crisis - which I refuse to believe has had a line drawn under it - global financial markets could hardly deal with another crisis without contagion on a massive scale.

    In order to stem panic-selling in JGBs, the BoJ will have to undertake a buying programme of a far greater size than initially envisaged and one that simply might not be viable given Japan's precarious fiscal position.

    I suspect the JGB market is about to take centre stage among the variables that dictate the actions of global financial market players, and that its role will be unequivocally that of the villain. Mr Abe might soon come to wish that he had kept Japan chugging along. His grand vision, for all its laudable intentions, seems likely to soon be revealed as fundamentally self-defeating.


     
  2. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    ASIA BOND

    [video=youtube;ZkGHZqe28II]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkGHZqe28II[/video]

    Veteran fears 'beginning of the end' for Japan as bond market buckles

    Global markets face a witches’ brew of new risks as Japan’s monetary adventure wobbles, China slows further and the US Fed prepares to shut the spigot of dollar liquidity.

    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    23 May 2013

    Yields on 10-year Japanese bonds (JGBs) have doubled in a month and spiked dramatically to 1pc on Thursday, triggering a 7.3pc crash in the Nikkei stock index. It was the biggest one-day fall since the tsunami two years ago, comparable with wild moves seen at the height of the Asian crisis in 1998.

    [​IMG]

    The contagion effect set off a retreat from stocks across the world, though Wall Street later pared losses. The iTraxx Crossover or “fear gauge” for corporate bonds jumped 25 points to 392.

    The Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened with $20bn (£13bn) to drive down yields again but the failure to ensure an orderly debt market has started to rattle investors. Banks, pension funds and insurers appear to be dumping JGBs for fear of being caught on the wrong side of a bond rout.

    Richard Koo from Nomura, an expert on Japan’s Lost Decade, said the sell-off in recent days has shown that the BoJ may not be able to hold down yields “no matter how many bonds it buys”. This could lead to a “loss of faith in the Japanese government” and the “beginning of the end” for its economy, if handled badly.

    The drama in Tokyo came amid fresh signs that China is struggling to manage the hangover from its four-year lending boom, which has pushed credit to 200pc of GDP and spawned a shadow banking system.

    The HSBC manufacturing index tipped below the contraction line to 49.6 in May. “There is simply no recovery,” said Yao Wei from Societe Generale.

    China’s leaders are walking a fine line, reluctant to overdo stimulus for fear that it will leak into the property bubble and perpetuate a deformed structure. Fitch says the economic return on lending has collapsed over the past four years from a ratio of 0.8 to 0.35, a sign of credit exhaustion.

    Morgan Stanley has stopped relying on Chinese growth data to assess growth, using proxies such as Korean exports and Taiwan bonds.

    “China is slowing hard. We are concerned that leverage is higher than reported, and banks have a huge maturity mismatch,” said Hans Redeker, the bank’s currency chief.

    Global equities have risen 27pc since July, lifted first by the Fed’s “QE3”, then the move by Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank to back-stop Italy and Spain, and, finally, by the reflation blitz of Japan’s premier, Shinzo Abe.

    Mr Redeker said this phase is over as the Fed shifts gears, with the latest Fed minutes showing that several rate-setters want to wind down bond purchases as soon as June. Chairman Ben Bernanke has given mixed signals, but it is clear that the Fed’s centre of gravity is shifting.

    “The Fed is moving to neutral. That is why stocks are getting hammered. It is toxic for anybody around the world who relies on dollar funding, and that means emerging markets,” said Mr Redeker.

    Marc Ostwald of Monument Securities said Ben Bernanke had “signed the death warrant for markets”, while Julia Coronado from BNP Paribas said the Fed’s minutes were “simply astounding”, creating total confusion over when it will taper off QE. “What may be in store over the next few months is a showdown between the markets and the Fed,” she said.

    The mere promise of “Abenomics” has lifted Japanese equities by 70pc since November, with foreign hedge funds accounting for a third of all net long positions, but the dark side is becoming clear. The BoJ is purchasing enough bonds to cover 70pc of Japan’s budget deficit this year under the new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda. This is $70bn a month, almost as much as the Fed in an economy one third the size.

    Mr Kuroda has played down the spike in yields, though one of his original aims was to cut borrowing costs. “I don’t think the recent rise in yields is having a big impact on the economy,” he said.

    Officials cite the rise as proof that investors believe the BoJ will lift Japan out of deflation at long last and achieve the new inflation target of 2pc. Professor Richard Werner from Southampton University, author of Princes of the Yen, said nobody knows whether the bold gambit will succeed.

    “They have been very good at marketing, and investors just love Abenomics, but there is a widening gap between the euphoria and delivery. Very little has actually happened to credit creation so far, and without that there will not be a recovery,” he said.

    Surging yields have already caused Toyota to shelve a bond issue. The great fear is that a bond rout will set off a banking crisis since Japanese lenders hold JGBs equal to 80pc of GDP. The International Monetary Fund said a 100 point rise in yields would erode the Tier-1 capital of regional banks by 20pc.

    “At some point, the JGB market is going to crash. The crucial question is whether they can prevent the banking system from being hurt? It will be tricky, and I am not sure the BoJ has thought this through,” said Prof Werner.

    Mr Koo said the BoJ has undermined the “market structure” that has kept Japan’s bond market stable for 20 years, and invited an attack by short sellers.

    He said the bank faces a “time inconsistency problem” since markets react more quickly than the economy.

    The risk is that inflation fears will lead to bond collapse before the benefits of stimulus have fed through. But Junko Nishikoa from RBS said the fears are overblown. “The bottom line is that Japan’s economy is recovering and the BoJ will succeed in holding down risk premiums,” she said.

    Japan has taken a huge gamble, but Mr Abe says the status quo is not an option either. With public debt to reach 245pc of GDP this year, the country must restore growth in nominal GDP to head off a debt compound spiral. That Holy Grail is at last in sight.
     
  3. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    The N225 plunged a whopping 1,143 points (-7.32%), European stock markets slide after Nikkei plunged > 7%. FTSE 100 falls 120 points in early trading after Japan's Nikkei suffers its biggest daily fall in over two years, after disappointing Chinese economic data. [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  4. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    BOJ says party on - in the long run we are all dead

    Japan may regret starting a difficult inflation fire

    By Desmond Lachman
    8 May 2013

    Japanese policymakers might learn the hard way that one must be very careful about what you wish for. Having engaged in the most unorthodox monetary policy experiments to engender some inflation into the Japanese economy, they might find it difficult to get the inflation genie back into the bottle once the inflation process has been restarted. Indeed, as markets become increasingly alert to the very real risk of long-run monetary financing of Japan's highly compromised public finances, there might be no turning back on the road to high Japanese inflation.

    Since taking office last Christmas, Shinzo Abe, Japan's new prime minister, has vowed to do whatever it takes to extricate the Japanese economy from the chronic deflation from which it has long suffered. To that end, he has pledged to increase Japanese inflation to 2 percent within the next two years, and he has shaken up the leadership of the Bank of Japan to ensure that Japanese monetary policy is pursued in a manner consistent with that inflation goal. At the same time, despite the truly appalling state of Japan's public finances, Mr. Abe's government is engaging in a short-run Keynesian-style fiscal stimulus with the aim of reviving flagging consumer and investment demand.

    The centerpiece of Japan's efforts to revive inflation is the Bank of Japan's pledge to print money on a scale that makes similar efforts in the United States and the United Kingdom pale. Over the next two years, the Bank of Japan proposes to increase the size of its balance sheet by a staggering US $1.4 trillion. It will do so through the purchase of Japanese government bonds and other financial instruments at the rate of around US $70 billion a month. These purchases are expected to almost double the size of the Bank of Japan's balance sheet from 35 percent of GDP at present to over 60 percent of GDP by the end of 2014.

    As was to be expected, the prospect of massive Japanese money printing has sent the Japanese yen reeling. Over the past five months, the Japanese yen has lost as much as 25 percent of its value as measured against both the US dollar and the Euro. This large move in the yen has provoked charges by the Chinese government that Japan is engaging in a currency war that deliberately aims at cheapening its currency to boost its exports at the expense of its neighbors. However, at the recent IMF Spring Meetings, the move in the Japanese yen was accepted by Japan's main industrialized country partners as part of Japan's effort to boost inflation. This gives Japan the green light for further rounds of yen weakness.

    A real risk to Japan's unprecedented monetary policy experiment is that it is being conducted in the context of highly compromised public finances. A measure of how compromised are those finances is the fact that Japan's gross public debt now stands at 240 percent of GDP or around 2 ½ times the equivalent US ratio. Similarly disturbing is the fact that Japan's budget deficit, excluding interest payments, remains at around 7 percent of GDP. This makes it all too likely that Japan's public debt ratio will continue to deteriorate at a rapid rate.

    In the past, Japan has managed to finance its large budget deficits through a very high domestic savings rate. However, those days are long behind it as suggested by the sharp decline in recent years in Japanese household savings as its population rapidly ages. Among the industrialized countries Japan's population is now aging at the fastest pace. This holds out the prospect of a sustained further decline in the Japanese savings rate as an aging Japanese public runs down its savings to finance its retirement.

    A basic question that should be keeping Japanese policymakers awake at night is who will be buying the Japanese government bonds that will be needed both to finance Japan's large budget deficit and to roll over the very large amount of government debt that will be falling due over the next few years. In the context of extraordinarily low long-term government interest rates, a plummeting currency, and rising domestic inflation, one can hardly expect foreigners to step in to replace Japan's aging population as a major buyer of Japanese bonds. This raises the specter of the Bank of Japan being forced to continue buying enormous quantities of Japanese government bonds to prevent a rise in Japanese government borrowing rates that would only make the Japanese public finances even more unsustainable than they are at present.

    Desmond Lachman is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2013
  5. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Yen headed for another 10% drop: Daryl Guppy

    Apr 09, 2013, 10.32 AM IST

    The dollar-yen, which is trading at multi-year highs has spent several weeks consolidating near the 95 level. The breakout above 95 has an upside target near 102. Speaking on CNBC`s "Asia Squawk Box" on December 21 as the dollar-yen moved above 84 we set the upside resistance target near 95.

    In notes at the end of February we set the upside target near 102. The resistance behavior near 95 is significant because in the future this provides a floor for any market retreat. The rise of the yen is dragging the Nikkei index after it. Watching the dollar-yen gives early warning of Nikkei behavior.

    This rapid rise from 79 to 95 had the short traders twitching their trigger fingers. They ended up shooting themselves in the foot. The rise was very rapid, but it was not unexpected from the technical chart perspective.

    The dollar-yen breakout above 79 in October 2012 was part of a long term fan reversal pattern. This pattern started with the peak price of 110 in August 2008. We have spent five years with the yen well below parity, but this is not the usual condition for the yen. A return to parity or above is the long term position of the yen from 1996 to 2008.

    Resistance near 95 is well established. It acted as a support level in March and August 2009. It acted as a resistance level in April 2010. This has been a major feature of the market post-Global Financial Crisis. Now that this has been broken this suggests it will become a strong support level in 2013. When it was acting as a resistance level it meant the dollar-yen took several weeks of consolidation near this resistance prior to developing a breakout.

    The current breakout has two upside targets. The first target is near 101. This was a major support level in December 1999 and again in November 2004. However, it offered no support in April 2008. This suggests that it will offer limited resistance for a breakout above 95.

    The most powerful support-resistance level is near 102. This acted as support in June 1997, January 1999 and again in September 2005. It acted as a resistance level in January 2004 and June 2008. It was the peak high used for the start of the long term fan trend reversal pattern in August 2008.

    Parity is a strong probability, but it`s only part of the story. When we step back and look at a monthly chart we see two features. First, as noted, is that the yen has spent a long time historically above parity. Second is that any breakout above 102 has an upside target near 111. It`s a long stretch to set this as a target, but any sustained breakout above 102 has 111 as the next target. This acted as resistance in 1994, 2000 and 2004. It acted as support in 1997, 1998 and 2006.
     
  6. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    WATANABE

    [video=youtube;ENlMI6NE-ik]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENlMI6NE-ik[/video]
     
  7. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Yen's fall runs out of steam, earnings lift stocks

    By Richard Hubbard
    LONDON | Tue Apr 9, 2013 8:59am BST

    (Reuters) - A selloff in the yen paused on Tuesday as it neared 100 to the dollar, while a firm start to the U.S. corporate earnings season and a fall in Chinese inflation lifted share markets.

    The Japanese currency hit 99.67 to the dollar in Asian trading, the greenback's strongest level versus the yen since May 2009, before the selloff ran out of steam. The euro stopped at a peak last seen in January 2010 of 129.94 yen.

    The dollar has gained about 7 percent against the yen since the Bank of Japan (BOJ) unveiled a massive stimulus programme last Thursday involving large purchases of long term Japanese government bonds (JGBs).

    "Markets are increasingly focused on the notion that larger JGB purchases, at longer maturities, by the BOJ could push Japanese domestic long-term investors elsewhere," said Vassili Serebriakov, strategist at BNP Paribas.

    In early European trading the dollar was at 98.91 yen, down 0.4 percent, while the euro was down 0.25 percent on the day at 128.93 yen.

    The BOJ's bold measures are also having a major effect on the world's main bond markets by sending Japanese government yields down sharply and spurring a search for higher-yielding assets, sending yields lower on U.S. and euro zone debt.

    The yield on 10-year Treasury notes stood at 1.74 percent, little changed from late U.S. trade on Monday, although not far from a four-month low of 1.677 percent.

    German government 10-year bonds were steady at 1.24 percent having hit 1.2 percent on Friday, their lowest levels since mid-2012 when the European Central Bank promised to do whatever it took to save the euro.

    EARNINGS LIFT

    European equity markets rose in early trading, led by mining stocks as investors hoped for more accommodative monetary policy from China following benign inflation data, and after U.S. firm Alcoa posted solid earnings.

    The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 0.5 percent at 1,170.30 points. London's FTSE 100, Paris's CAC-40 and Frankfurt's DAX all opened as much as 0.7 percent higher.

    U.S. stock futures were also firmer, suggesting a firm Wall Street open.

    Earlier, the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 1 percent, led by Australian shares which gained 1.4 percent on rises in blue chip financials and miners.

    China's annual consumer inflation cooled in March as food prices eased from nine-month highs and producer price deflation deepened, data showed on Tuesday, leaving policymakers room to keep monetary conditions easy and nurture a nascent recovery.

    Alcoa Inc, the largest U.S. aluminium producer, kicked off U.S. earnings on Monday, reporting an increase in quarterly profit and easing concerns about corporate results in the first three months of 2013.

    U.S. crude futures rose 0.2 percent to $93.54 a barrel and Brent rose 0.15 percent to $104.83.

    Crude oil prices have seen some support from tensions on the Korean peninsula after words from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un about the prospect for war with the south.
     
  8. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    日本央行货币政策委员会宣布采取最新宽松措施

    2013年 4月 4日

    日本央行(Bank of Japan)周四决定推出大规模货币政策放松计划,新任央行行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)启动了其旨在两年内摆脱持续困扰日本逾15年的通货紧缩的攻势。

    这是黑田东彦首次参加央行货币政策委员会会议,会议制定的主要措施包括扩大日本国债的购买规模,其中包括购买更长期限的国债。由于日本利率已接近零,购买国债及其他资产成为央行刺激经济及结束物价缓慢下滑的主要途径。

    这次会议是二战之后日本央行历史上最受关注的会议之一。此前黑田东彦承诺将采取大胆行动来实现2%的通货膨胀率。

    上述承诺已经推动日本股市大幅攀升至2008年以来的最高水平,并帮助压低了持续坚挺的日圆汇率。日圆汇率高企一直是拖累日本出口的主要因素。

    日本央行表示,将以每年新增约50万亿日圆规模的速度扩大日本国债的购买量。

    黑田东彦将在今日晚些时候召开的新闻发布会上对上述最新举措做出解释。

    货币宽松是首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)力图结束上世纪90年代初日本金融泡沫破灭后“失去的二十年”的三大支柱战略之一。黑田东彦已承诺将尽一切努力实现2%的通胀目标,这也是1月份日本政府与央行签署的协议内容之一。

    市场对黑田东彦大规模放宽政策的呼声表示欢迎,东京股市升至数年高点,日元大幅走低。接受道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)调查的10位经济学家此前均预计日本央行将在本次会议上放松政策,他们中的许多人还预计该行将在4月26日的下一次会议上采取更多行动。

    但批评人士称,黑田东彦的做法不是没有风险的。

    他们指出,如果受央行政策行动影响,日本借款成本的上涨幅度超过商品和服务价格的涨幅,那么将对经济造成打击,日本公共债务占国内生产总值的比例也可能从当前超过200%的水平进一步上升。另外,如果黑田东彦的行动达不到预期目标,或者没有带来他屡次向外界承诺的效果,市场人气可能发生极大转变,或者极大地削弱日本央行的政策公信力。

    以下是日本央行货币政策委员会在结束为期两天的会议后宣布采取的最新措施:

    • 日本央行将扩大国债购买规模,所持国债规模将以每年约50万亿日圆的速度扩张。这相当于国债购买规模从现在的每个月3.8万亿日圆增加至约7万亿日圆。
    • 日本央行取消了其内定的所购日本国债的期限限制。此前日本央行一直担心此举会引发外界对央行为政府开支融资的质疑,因此迟迟不愿这样做。日本央行原先规定所购国债的剩余期限不超过三年。
    • 日本央行将扩大上市交易基金(ETF)和房地产投资信托基金(REIT)的购买量,央行所持这两项资产的规模将以每年1万亿日圆和300亿日元的速度递增。央行此前已经承诺到今年12月底购买2.1万亿日圆的ETF和1,300亿日元的REIT。
    • 日本央行宣布引入新的货币基础目标以增强货币宽松政策的效力,计划以每年60万亿-70万亿日圆的速度扩大货币基础。
    • 日本央行将暂不执行其自定的有关流动性供应操作中国债购买量的“银行货币规则”。央行此前利用该规则来避免外界对其增发货币为政府财政融资的质疑。
    • 日本央行将把现有的国债购买计划合二为一,此前的国债购买计划分为例行流动性供应和货币宽松计划两个部份。
     
  9. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    受央行宽松措施牵动 日本股市攀升债市呈现拉锯

    • 30年期日债收益率一度跌至低于20年券收益率
    • 日经指数上涨1.6%,稍早曾触及五年高点
    • 日圆触及三年半低点
    路透东京4月5日 - 日本股市周五跳升至近五年高点,日本政府公债价格大幅上扬,长债收益率曲线倒挂,此前日本央行在周四宣布积极刺激举措,以期复苏日本经济。

    日本央行的大规模刺激措施承诺透过买进各天期公债以及较高风险上市交易基金(ETF),在不到两年时间内向经济挹注约1.4兆(万亿)美元。

    指标10年期日债收益率周五早间一度下滑12个基点,至0.315%的纪录低位。日股日经指数.N225一度劲扬4.7%,自2008年8月以来首次升穿13,000点。

    但午后投资者了结部分获利,静待今日稍晚美国的非农就业报告。

    “美国在初期的量化宽松措施后,也出现过类似的价格走势。市场大概涨了一两天,然后投资者就赶紧锁定债券持仓的获利,”野村证券固定收益首席定量策略师Neale Vincent称。

    日央行到2014年底前将把基础货币扩大一倍至270兆(万亿)日圆(2.80兆美元)。即使是美联储的量化宽松计划,也比不上日央行政策的积极程度。美联储或许买更多债券,但日央行刺激计划相对于经济规模的比例大得多。

    穆迪周五表示,日本央行不同寻常的货币刺激举措可能使未来两年政府借款成本维持在低位,但长期来看仍给该国财政稳定性带来风险。

    日股日经指数终场收高1.6%至12,833.64点,交投活络,成交量较过去90个交易日的全日平均水准高一倍。

    日圆/美元触及三年半低点97.20,周四重挫3.6%,创2008年10月以来单日最大跌幅。截至午盘中,日圆/美元报96.15,日内下跌0.2%。

    “意义重大的一日”

    “这是我职业生涯中最重要的一天,”瑞士信贷股票销售主管Stefan Worrall表示。

    “这是日本央行昨日举措带来的走势,很多之前没有参与的投资者加了进来,他们之前在等待日本央行与首相在高调表态之后究竟会采取什么行动。”

    日经指数自11月中以来涨幅约达48%。10年期日本公债收益率同期累计跌幅21.5基点。

    房地产板块跳涨11.8%,金融企业股价也大涨,因预计其将在恢复景气措施的带动下获益。

    瑞穗金融集团(8411.T: 行情)上涨1.5%,为主板成交额最活络的股票,紧接其后的是三菱UFJ金融集团(8306.T: 行情)、三井住友金融集团(8316.T: 行情)和消费金融公司Aiful Corp(8515.T: 行情)。

    交投最活络的日经指数期权是行权价13,7502JNI137D3.OS的看涨期权,这比周五的指数收位高7%。

    收益率曲线倒挂

    在日债市场,10年期日本公债期货触及纪录高位146.41,然后遭遇获利了结。30年期日债收益率一度低于20年期债,导致不常见的收益率曲线倒挂现象。

    三菱日联摩根士丹利固定收益高级分析师Naomi Muguruma表示,这是收益率曲线“很长时间来”首次出现倒挂。

    “由于日本央行宣布要购买期限较长的公债,20年债和30年债的供需平衡有些被扭曲,”Muguruma称。

    “这可能持续一段时间,但央行不开始实际买债的话,我们也不能说的多肯定,央行买债或许会改变投资者的行为,”她又称。

    “以往购买30年债的投资者很可能不会在收益率低于20年债的时候购买,因此投资者可能转向20年债,倒挂的收益率曲线可能被修正。我想这也许是投资者可能做出的合理反应。”

    30年债收益率报1.210%,日内下跌1.5个基点,20年债收益率几无变动报1.135%。

    10年期日债收益率日内上升10个基点至0.535%,稍早曾跌至纪录低点0.315%。10年期日债期货跌2.02点至144.02,至两个月收盘低位。

    “许多以往对日本市场不感兴趣的投资者也开始关注...他们意识到,如果继续采用以往的看法,他们将丧失机会,”Commons资产管理的执行长Tetsuro Ii表示。

    股票估值方面,根据汤森路透Datastream的数据,日股的12个月预期市盈率为14.1,稍高于标准普尔500指数.INX的13.7,但低于其10年均值16.3.

    当日涨 上日



    最新报 (基点) 收市价



    两年期公债 0.090% +3.0 0.060%

    五年期公债 0.170% +4.0 0.130%

    10年期公债 0.505% +7.0 0.435%

    20年期公债 1.135% +0.0 1.135%

    30年期公债 1.210% -1.5 1.225%

    10年期公债期货 144.02 -2.02 146.04

    注1:公债期货涨跌为点数。

    注2:若报价显示0.000%表示尚未成交。

    (编译 李春喜 审校 隋芬)
     
  10. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    黑田东彦:强力货币刺激举措不会催生资产泡沫

    • 日本央行总裁黑田东彦不认为有资产泡沫忧虑
    • 股市续涨而公债收益率下滑,受日本央行宽松举措影响
    • 大举购买日本公债引发外界对财政纪律的担忧
    2013年 4月 5日 星期五

    路透东京4月5日 - 日本央行总裁黑田东彦驳斥有关他空前货币刺激举措将催生资产价格泡沫的担忧,即便这些刺激举措宣布后马上就在全球市场产生反响--日本公债收益率(殖利率)触及纪录低位,日圆一度跌至三年半低位,股市劲扬至数年高位。

    日圆兑美元周五跌破97日圆,为2009年8月以来首次。上日日本央行宣布了全球最强势的货币刺激举措,承诺在不到两年的时间内向经济挹注约1.4万亿美元。

    继周四上扬2.2%后,日股日经指数一度跳涨4.7%,且自2008年8月以来首次升破13,000点大关。10年期日债收益率一度下跌12个基点,至0.315%的纪录低位。

    “我们将警惕产生泡沫的风险。我不认为债市或股市目前有泡沫,也不认为会很快出现泡沫。但我们将警惕这种风险,”黑田东彦向下议院称。

    不过,雷曼兄弟证券经济分析师白石洋称,“我们认为有产生泡沫的风险”。

    “如果这类资产购买计划要起到作用,就是要透过扭曲资产市场才会起到作用。”

    债务增加

    “像其他央行一样,日本央行力求实现物价稳定时将仔细观察资产价格走势、就业和薪资状况以及其他数据,”黑田东彦表示。

    日本央行货币政策大举变动,意味着该央行每月购买的日本公债总量相当于政府新债发行量的约70%。这种规模的购债举措会对将收益率维持在低位提供很大帮助,但也引发日本央行已经基本同意将财政支出货币化的担忧。

    日本公共债务规模已经是其经济规模的两倍以上,债务负担是主要经济体中最严重的。日本政府官员总是在谈论财政纪律,但在削减债务上几乎未取得进展。

    穆迪周五表示,日本央行不同寻常的货币刺激举措可能使未来两年政府借款成本维持在低位,但长期来看仍给该国财政稳定性带来风险。

    日本央行1月宣布设定2%的通胀目标时,政府同意采取措施确保财政政策稳健。但迄今为止,日本政府仍不愿出台控制债务的具体举措。

    “基于联合声明,财务省必须实行坚定的财政计划,免得损害我们同日央行的关系,”日本财务大臣麻生太郎周五表示。

    (编译 许娜/杜明霞;审校 蔡美珍/张荻)

     
  11. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Japan launches huge stimulus

    Friday, April 05, 2013

    (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan unleashed the world's most intense burst of monetary stimulus yesterday, promising to inject about US$1.4 trillion into the economy in less than two years, a radical gamble that sent the yen reeling and bond yields to record lows.

    New Governor Haruhiko Kuroda committed the BOJ to open-ended asset buying and said the monetary base would nearly double to 270 trillion yen by the end of 2014 in a shock therapy to end two decades of stagnation.

    In Tokyo a a smiling Kuroda noted: "This is an unprecedented degree of monetary easing. I'm confident that all necessary measures to achieve 2 percent inflation in two years were taken today," he said.

    One of those steps was to abandon interest rates as a target and become the only major central bank to primarily target the monetary base - the amount of cash it pumps out to the economy.

    The scope of the changes Kuroda pushed through, and the fact he secured unanimous board support for them, drove the yen down sharply, knocked the 10-year bond yield to a record low, and nudged Tokyo share prices just shy of a 4 year closing high.

    "The result is nothing short of regime change," HSBC Japan economist Izumi Devalier said.

    The scope of Kuroda's overhaul offered immediate comfort to Japanese markets, but contains major risks.

    It could leave the central bank heavily exposed to government debt and potentially huge losses if it failed to stoke inflation and investors lost faith in its efforts to revive the economy, and it could trigger a currency war as other Asian exporters seek to remain competitive with a weaker yen.

    The European Central Bank, meanwhile, held rates at a record low 0.75 percent, the highest level among the world's major central banks.

    But ECB president Mario Draghi said the authorities stood "ready to act" because there was no certainty that the euro zone economy would pick up.

    The Bank of England also voted yesterday to leave its main lending rate unchanged - at a record-low level of 0.50 percent.

    Asian markets: Nikkei jumps, Hang Seng plunges

    Friday, April 05, 2013

    Asian stocks mixed on Friday, after the Bank of Japan's new governor announced unprecedented monetary easing to end two decades of economic stagnation.

    Japanese benchmark index, Nikkei 225 rose 199.10 points or 1.58% to close at 12,833.64. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index decreased 610.59 points, or 2.73% to end at 21,726.90.

    South Korea's Kospi index decreased 32.22 points, or 1.64% to end at 1,927.23. Singapore's Straits Times indexed declined 8.02 points, or to 0.24% close at 3,299.78.
     
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