Market Psychology

Discussion in 'Acquistion Targets' started by zuolun, Nov 4, 2012.


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  1. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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  2. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    L&T's review on Noble 14 Nov 2012; downgrade to SELL

    • It is only fair to expect the market to react negatively
      to news that Vice Chairman Harindarpal Banga
      sold 225 mln shares this morning at $1.10 a share,
      representing a 5.6% discount to Monday’s $1.165
      close.
    • Banga last sold 115 mln shares in Mar 2010 at $3.10,
      or $2.01 adjusted for the 6 : 11 bonus issue.
    • Co-founder Richard Elman sold 194,283,850
      shares to sovereign wealth funds : 135 mln shares at
      $2.37 in Sept ’09 to China Investment Corp and
      59.28 mln shares at $1.69 in May ’11 to Korea
      Investment Corp.
    • Whatever the reasons for selling, the latest by Banga
      is disconcerting. Noble is already at the lowest since
      prior to CIC’s entry, amid concerns the commodities
      bull cycle may have ended, as evidenced by the sharp
      capex cut backs by mining giants like BHP Billiton.
    • We are therefore downgrading Noble to SELL.
     
  3. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    I'm super bearish on the S'pore stock market and had cleared all my long-term positions.

    ChinaMinZhong was the last long-term stock which I sold @ 0.81 on 25 Sep 2012.

    Share with you one interesting stock, OLAM.

    I queued to buy OLAM @ 0.89 and got it cheaper @ 0.88 in Dec 2nd, 2008.

    Based on TA, OLAM was near its 2005 bottom then.

    It had already plunged > 75% to less than a dollar; the margin of safety was good enough to buy/long then.

    Fast forward to the present, OLAM closed @ 1.84 on 12 Nov 2012.

    Based on TA, if OLAM breaks below the neckline @ 1.485, a Rounding Top Breakout TP 0.87 will plunge it back to the Dec 2008 price level.

    技术分析:

    一代过去,一代又来。地却永远长存。
    日头出来,日头落下,急归所出之地。
    风往南刮,又向北转,不住地旋转,而且返回转行原道。
    江河都往海里流,海却不满。江河从何处流,仍归何处……。
    已有的事,后必再有。已行的事,后必再行。日光之下并无新事。


    History repeats itself. The future is but a repetition of the past..."The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun."

    Simply put, a fair bit of optimism has already been factored into majority of the Straits Times Index stock prices; I believe in TA and had chosen to get out to conserve my capital and re-enter at lower prices, at the right time.

    [​IMG]

    Olam - Symmetrical Triangle Breakout; Interim TP 1.61

    Olam closed with a black marubozu @ 1.84 (-0.035, -1.9%) on 12 Nov 2012.

    Immediate support 1.80, next support 1.76.

    Immediate resistance 1.905, the 50d SMA, next resistance 1.925, the 20d SMA.

    The stock is trading below the 20d, 50d, 100d, 200d and 400d SMA.

    There is a bearish divergence between the price and volume of Olam prior to the bearish breakout on 9 Nov 2012.

    [​IMG]

    Olam - Rounding Top formation; crucial support @ 1.485

    [​IMG]

    Olam (weekly) - Trading in a Downward Sloping Channel dated 12 Nov 2012

    [​IMG]

    Olam (weekly) - H & S formation dated 28 May 2012

    [​IMG]

    Olam (yearly) - Long-term downtrend intact; crucial support 1.485

    [​IMG]
     
  4. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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  5. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Island Top Chart Pattern

    Implication
    An Island Top is a bearish signal indicating a possible reversal of the current uptrend to a new downtrend.

    This pattern is an indication of a financial instrument's short-term outlook.

    Description
    The Island Top occurs when the price "gaps" above a specific price range for a number of days and then is confirmed when the price "gaps" down below to the original range.

    [​IMG]

    Statistics -- Tops
    Percent of successful formations – 77% Average decline of successful formations – 21% Likely decline – 10% Failure rate - 13% Average time to throwback completion –8 days

    An Island Top Chart Pattern Example

    [​IMG]

    EXAMPLE:

    Genting SP - Island Top Reversal, 23 Mar 2012

    [​IMG]
     
  6. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    willy8,

    If the neckline of the rounding top @ 4.61 is taken out convincingly with exceptional high vol., it's a confirmation of a rounding top downside breakout; TP 3.77. (Ref below AMEDIA's similar chart pattern dated 12 Oct 2012; prior to the share price collapsed, it had peaked @ 1.15, the historical high scored on 27 Sep 2012.)

    Alternatively, if Digi could strongly rebound to hit 5.17, the 20d SMA and trades above the historical high @ 5.45 scored on 19 Oct 2012, then the uptrend resumes. (Ref below Capitaland's Rounding Top Upside Breakout chart pattern dated 7 Nov 2012.)

    Digi - Uptrend broken; share price collapsed

    Digi closed unchanged with a spinning top @ 4.84 on 12 Nov 2012.

    Immediate support @ 4.78, immediate resistance @ 5.06, the 50d SMA, next resistance @ 5.17, the 20d SMA.

    [​IMG]

    AMEDIA - Uptrend broken; share price collapsed, 12 Oct 2012

    [​IMG]

    Capitaland - Rounding Top Upside Breakout; TP 4.21

    [​IMG]
     
  7. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    A 200 DMA Breech with 66% Fib & IHS + Wave C

    By tchirp
    November 9, 2012

    Algos Gone Wild

    There are a lot of reasons for the markets to be doing what they are doing this week. The election and the situation in Europe are chief among those reasons. Yet I can’t help but think that positioning remains the biggest problem (I will post my “crowded trade” memo from last night for those who aren’t on e-mail distribution). But on top of positioning, it seems clear that the market has drifted ever further from any attempt at valuation as is merely a playground for algo’s and technical analysis.

    I am not sure I’ve ever heard or read the term “200 day moving average” as much as I have over the past two weeks. In fact, I may have read it and heard it more these past two weeks than I have in the past 5 years combined. Everyone is a technical analyst. Certainly one explanation for yesterday’s trading was that lots of people bought the 200 DMA (on S&P – ignoring for the moment that Nasdaq is well through its 200 DMA). That supported the market, but as selling pressure continued to weigh on the market, those that had bought for the support of the 200 DMA sold and some shorted the potential breakthrough of the 200 DMA. If this sounds like gobbledygook to you, well, it isn’t.

    Self Fulfilling or Recipe For Disaster?

    For many of you out there that hate technical analysis and chartists, well you are out of luck. They are important. If it seems arbitrary that the 200 DMA is used rather than 215, it probably is, but it doesn’t mean you can ignore it. The same goes with head and shoulders patterns, plunging necklines, Fibonacci retracements, and beyond.

    With so many people looking at these technical signals, they can become self-fulfilling. When everyone expects we get support at a level, they buy and we get it. It works. The problem is when it doesn’t work. When people buy at the support level and we get negative news. Now they are sellers. They only owned it based on a technical level. For those who live and die by technical trading, that is something they are used to. For technical “tourists” it is dangerous. The PM who has spent 95% of his or her life focused on P/E but is playing the “technicals”, is dangerous. Now the selling accelerates, because not only do those people who bought need to sell, but many real technical traders, not to mention momentum traders, will now see the breach of the 200 DMA as a great opportunity to short. So momentum to the downside will accelerate to downside as people look for a much lower resistance. This is about the time when Elliot wave talk begins – as those tend to be longer, bigger moves.

    There are two problems with technical trading that I see in this market. The first problem is that so many people are doing it, that it will seem to be working, until the time it doesn’t, and that time will be horrific. The second and bigger problem is that computers are better at it.

    Computers and Charts

    We humans like charts. They let us visually represent something. We can draw lines and see patterns. Computers don’t need charts. Charts are just a visual representation of data, and the computers can rely on the data itself. They can scan data for any pattern in any time frame far faster and more efficiently than humans. They will always be ahead of the curve. Algos don’t “know” anything, but they are programmed with trades looking to test these technicals. They will push prices towards them looking to cause breaches or support.

    So you have humans all playing the same trade and algos “helping” them along. On far too many days lately, this is the best explanation for what is going on.

    Grexit

    Mind boggling that we are back on the verge of what looks like the EU ripping itself apart by letting Greece go. I still don’t see how the EU sees “OSI” or official sector losses as unacceptable, but expects to get paid if Greece is forced to default or exit? I can’t figure out the logic there. They are contradictory and the only real option for the official sector is losses in an organized and methodical approach while trying to help Greece, or losses in a chaotic default with lawsuits and massive spillover effects into the rest of Europe. Bizarrely, Spanish and Italian bonds are well behaved today.
     
  8. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    nottibird,

    When doing scalp trading, it's advisable to use the SiMSCI Futures to do delta hedging.

    Delta hedging could avoid heavy losses as all the market movers stocks selected below are Index stocks.

    STI closed @ 3012.25 (-31.02, -1.02%) on 8 Nov 2012.
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2012
  9. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Rounded Bottom Chart Pattern

    Implication
    A Rounded Bottom is considered a bullish signal, indicating a possible reversal of the current downtrend to a new uptrend.

    Description
    Rounded Bottoms are elongated and U-shaped, and are sometimes referred to as rounding turns, bowls or saucers. The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out above its moving average.

    Important Characteristics
    Following are important characteristic to look for in a Rounded Bottom.

    Shape
    The price pattern forms a gradual bowl shape. There should be an obvious bottom to the bowl. Price can fluctuate or be linear; however, the overall curve should be smooth and regular, without obvious spikes. For example, a V-shaped turn would not be considered a rounded bottom.

    Volume
    Volume tends to mirror the price pattern. Consequently, as the rounded bottom begins to descend, volume tends to decrease as bearishness wanes and investors become indecisive. Following a period of relative inactivity, at the bottom of the bowl, the price pattern starts its upward turn. As sentiment becomes more decisively bullish, volume tends to increase. When looking at volume in a rounded bottom pattern, Robert D. Edwards and John Magee note that "volume accelerates with the [price] trend until often it reaches a sort of climactic peak in a few days of almost 'vertical' price movement on the chart."

    Duration of the Rounded Bottom
    Rounded Bottoms are long-term patterns. Martin J. Pring identifies that the pattern can occur over a period of about 3 weeks, but can also be observed over several years.

    Trading Considerations

    Duration of the Pattern
    The duration of the pattern indicates the significance of the price movement. John J. Murphy writes that rounded bottoms "are usually spotted on weekly or monthly charts that span several years. The longer they last, the more significant they become."

    Target Price
    Understandably, investors like to buy at the lowest possible price. However, even the most promising-looking rounded bottoms patterns can fail. To determine whether a downturn has bearish potential, watch the price at the bottom of the downturn. For a rounded bottom, the price tends to hover and bounce between an upper and lower price limit. You may observe this behavior for weeks or even years, as knowledgeable investors accumulate stock at the lowest possible price.

    Clifford Pistolese advises that, "If well-informed, long-term investors are buying within the trading range, the eventual breakout will probably be to the upside." To manage risk, both Pistolese and Thomas N. Bulkowski suggest that investors buy stock when the breakout actually occurs.

    Price may end higher or lower than it was at the beginning of the formation. After an upside breakout, technical analysts may use the starting price at the left side of the bowl to determine where the price may head. However, you will want to monitor the stock with interest.

    Criteria that Supports

    Volume
    Volume should parallel the price formation, dropping off as the pattern reaches the bottom, then increasing as the new uptrend is established.

    Moving Average
    Moving averages help to determine whether the rounded bottom has the potential for an upside breakout. For a rounded bottom, the price should cross the moving average when it begins to ascend. When this crossover occurs, the pattern is "confirmed".

    There is an abundance of literature about moving averages if you are interested in understanding how they operate. In simple terms, the moving average can be used to detect a possible pattern success or failure. Typically, a moving average represents the closing price of a stock over a specified number of days, and can be used to predict the general direction of a stock. Depending on the type of stock, investors may decide to use a long, medium or short term moving average. For example, short duration patterns generally use a 50-day moving average, and longer patterns generally use a 200-day moving average.

    Criteria that Refutes

    Shape
    A formation is not a true rounded bottom when it does not involve a period of consolidation. Consolidation occurs following the descent when the price at the bottom of the pattern seems to bounce between an upper and lower limit. While, there are V-shaped patterns that yield successful returns, the rounded bottoms are a more reliable and predictable formation.

    Underlying Behavior
    A Rounded Bottom forms as investor sentiment shifts gradually from bearishness to bullishness. As the sentiment turns down toward the bottom, there is a drop off in trading volume due to the indecisiveness in the market. There is a period of consolidation at the bottom as trading bounces within a certain range, then finally there is a gradual upturn marking the shift to bullishness. As investors become more decisive about the bullishness, there is an increase in trading volume.

    圆形顶/圆形底 (Rounding Top / Rounding Bottom)

    圆形顶,即碟形顶(saucer top),属于转向形态,显示大跌市即将来临,后市跌势将会很大。

    顾名思义,圆形顶的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在顶部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形顶见顶形态 ,投资者宜尽快沽货离场,以免所持股份变成“蟹货”。

    圆形顶的形成,是股价经过一段升势后,升势开始放缓,每次新高位较上一个高位距离不远。由于升 势放缓,部分 先知先觉的投资者便撤退离场,令卖方力量增加。淡友先在圆形顶部与好友势力对抗,其后在好友数 目逐步减少下 ,淡友就得以渐渐控制局面。股价遂持续下滑,直至淡友全面控制局面后,市场需求转为供过于求, 跌势才会较急 。由于形成过程稍长,有时需数月始完成圆形顶。

    个别情况下,即使圆形顶形成,股价也不会实时急跌,仅会反复徘徊,横行发展,这徘徊区称为“碟 柄”或“碗柄 ” 。但由于跌势已成,该“碟柄”或“碗柄”一般很快便被突破,股价会转而向下,朝预期中的下跌趋 势而行。

    圆形底,又称碟形底(saucer bottom),属于见底形态,显示跌势已逆转,大升市即将来临,后市升势可以很大。其走势及趋向,与圆形 顶刚好相反。

    顾名思义,圆形底的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在底部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形底见底形态 ,投资者宜待圆形底升势转急初期,才追买股票。

    圆形底的形成过程如下:当股价经过一段跌势后,跌势开始放缓,沽售(或沽空)股票的成交量开始 减少。每次新 低位较上一个低位距离不远。由于跌势放缓,部分先知先觉者开始趁低吸纳,收集手法普遍是有耐性 地限价收集, 淡友力量因屡攻不下而开始减少,令圆形底部的成交量亦减少。其后好友数目逐步增加,渐控制局面 ,股价才能逐 步上扬。及好友完全控制局面,市场需求转为求过于供,升势方转急。由于形成过程稍久,往往需时 数月始完成圆 形底形态。

    个别情况下,即使圆形底形成,股价并不会实时急升,仅会反复横行徘徊,这徘徊区称为“碟柄”或 “碗柄”。但 当升势既成,这“碟柄”或“碗柄”很快会被突破,股价转而向上,朝预期的上升趋势而行。


    [video=youtube;7Lq0VYE4J34]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Lq0VYE4J34[/video][/QUOTE]

    Genting Bhd - Rounding Bottom formation

    [​IMG]

     
  10. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Stock Market: Non-Standard Behavior

    German industrial output plunged far more than expected, by 1.8%, led by a 2.3% manufacturing output decline.

    [​IMG]

    Polarised prospects

    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2012
  11. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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  12. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Psychology of Human Behavior

    女人不坏男人不爱,越烂越可爱!
    坏女人的世界总是好戏连连、精彩不断。 :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

    烂股不烂赌客不爱,越烂越可爱!
    烂臭股的世界总是好戏连连、精彩不断。 :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


    AMEDIA - U-shaped reversal

    AMEDIA closed with a spinning top @ 0.395 (-0.01, -2.5%) on 7 Nov 2012.

    Immediate support 0.375, immediate resistance 0.425.

    [​IMG]

     
  13. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    How To Locate And Trade An Extended Move

    Sometimes stocks will break out or break down in a very sharp and steep angle on the charts. These type of patterns are often referred to as a parabolic move when they surge to the upside. When these patterns occur to the downside they will often be referred to as a falling knife or waterfall decline. The actual name is irrelevant, however, understanding the chart pattern is very important. As a general rule, if you ever put a protractor up to your screen from any pivot low or pivot top and the angle is more than 60 degrees it is usually unsustainable. It does not matter if the stock or commodity is rallying or declining. The technique I will show you here will help to identify when the equity is running out of steam in either direction, and will need to retrace and consolidate some of its move.

    Step 1. Scan through stock charts and find a time when a stock was extremely extended from its 20 (SMA) simple moving average.

    Step 2. Determine the distance of where the stock was trading from the 20 moving average. Simply calculate the distance of the stock from the 20 MA and draw a vertical line to reflect it.

    Step 3. Take this distance and place the line on your chart. Follow the 20 SMA with the line; if at any point the stock price exceeds the length of the line from the 20 SMA, this will be your opportunity for a trade. Wait patiently, anytime price gets above or below the distance of the line, go long or short the stock. In this example, we are looking to enter a short position when price exceeds the distance of the line to the upside. ​

    Example:

    Take a look at the TLT chart below. On February 9, 2011 the TLT traded down to the $88.14 level. If you draw a straight line up to the 20 moving average from that $88.14 level you will see that the distance from that low pivot to the 20 moving average was $2.74. That is the distance that will be used for evaluating a future trade entry.

    On March 23, 2011 the TLT spiked sharply higher and became extended from the 20 moving average. If you simply copy the $2.74 measurement from the February 9, 2011 extended move and place that line on the 20 moving average of March 23, 2011 you see that it is extended and into resistance. This tells us that the TLT will likely pullback before moving higher. Therefore, if you own the TLT you can take profits on the trade or simply trail the stop loss. Traders that are aggressive and want to short the TLT can do so at the daily chart resistance from the last pivot high which was on December 21, 2010 at $94.70 a share.

    This technique can be applied to all time frames and used on all types of equities such as stocks, commodities, forex, and futures. Test it out a few times before adding it to your trading arsenal. By locating equities that are extended you will add more probability in favor of your trade succeeding. I am confident that once you start using this technique it will become one of your favorite methods for finding overbought and oversold equities.

    [​IMG]

    Example:

    KepCorp — Extremely extended from its 20d SMA (5 Oct 2011 - 17 Apr 2012)


    [​IMG]

    KepCorp — Potential inverted H&S formation, 6 Dec 2011

    [​IMG]
     
  14. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    nottibird,

    ALL the market movers stocks selected below are good intraday plays except the 2 wild cards, Singtel and Jardine C&C where market makers use them as a major hedge against their SiMSCI Futures. Adopt a rotational gameplay among these selected stocks strictly based on TA; short individual stock at higher high and cover back at lower low or buy at support, sell on strength. As long as STI trades below the 20d SMA now at 3041 with pathetic trading volume — just do range trading till end 2012. Short term wise, the S'pore stock market will remain range-bound with a downward bias, i.e. the probability of a bearish diamond top breakout with a target at 2883 is quite high. STI's current 35 points trading range is bet. 3015 to 3050; should the trading range moves lower, adjust the range by 35 points (3015 - 2980), accordingly.

    STI @ 3017.63 (-25.64, -0.84%), 8 Nov 2012, 10:25 Hrs
    [​IMG]

    STI @ 3049.02 (+22.41, +0.74%), 2 Nov 2012, 09:25 Hrs
    [​IMG]

    STI @ 3039.17 (+0.44, +0.01%), 31 Oct 2012, 04:18 Hrs
    [​IMG]

    STI closed @ 3029.61 (-27.9, -0.91%), 29 Oct 2012.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2012
  15. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Rounded Top Chart Pattern

    Implication
    A Rounded Top is considered a bearish signal, indicating a possible reversal of the current uptrend to a new downtrend.

    Description
    A Rounded Top is dome-shaped, and is sometimes referred to as an inverted bowl or a saucer top. The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks down below its moving average.

    Important Characteristics
    Following are important characteristic to look for in a Rounded Top.

    Shape
    Robert D. Edwards and John Magee describe the rounded top as being a "gradual, progressive, and fairly symmetrical change in the trend direction, produced by a gradual shift in the balance between buying and selling". For a rounded top, the price can fluctuate or be linear. However, the overall curve should be smooth and regular, without obvious spikes.

    Volume
    Volume can fluctuate, however volume generally appears to be concave, and follows the inverse of the price pattern. Therefore, as the price begins to ascend, volume tends to decrease. Once the top of the price pattern starts its downward turn, volume tends to increase.

    As Martin J. Pring writes in his book, Technical Analysis Explained, "The tip-off to the bearish implication of the rounded top is the fact that volume shrinks as prices reach their highest levels and then expand as they fall."

    Duration of the Rounded Top
    Rounded Tops typically occur over a period of about 3 weeks, but can also be observed over several years.

    Trading Considerations

    Duration of the Pattern
    The duration of the pattern indicates the significance of the price movement. Clifford Pistolese writes, "a rounding top that is completed in a couple of months will usually be less significant than one that takes a much longer time to complete."

    Target Price
    After a downside breakout, technical analysts may use the starting price at the left side of the dome to determine where the price may head. However, you will want to monitor the stock with interest. Price may end higher than it was at the beginning of the pattern. Furthermore, there is the potential for the price to rise after the rounded top completes. Thomas N. Bulkowski writes that, "most of the time prices rise after a rounding top completes".

    Criteria that Supports

    Volume
    Volume should diminish as the pattern forms.

    Moving Average
    Moving averages help to determine whether the rounded top has the potential to descend. For a rounded top, the price should cross below the moving average when it begins to descend. When this crossover occurs, the pattern is "confirmed".

    There is an abundance of literature about moving averages if you are interested in understanding how they operate. In simple terms, the moving average can be used to detect a possible pattern success or failure. Typically, a moving average represents the closing price of a stock over a set number of days, and can be used to anticipate the general direction of a stock. Depending on the type of stock, investors may decide to use a long, medium or short term moving average. For example, short duration patterns generally use a 50-day moving average, and longer patterns generally use a 200-day moving average.

    Trendlines
    Price trendlines provide investors with a way to monitor and validate a rounded top. To track a potential rounded top, technical analysts draw a line just beneath the lower limits of the price uptrend. The trendline is straight, regardless of the fluctuations of the price. When the price drops beneath the line, there is indication that the uptrend has ended.

    When the downtrend begins, technical analysts draw another line just above the upper limits of the price pattern, and continue down towards the start price of the pattern formation. When the price rises above the line, there is an indication that the new downtrend has ended.

    Criteria that Refutes

    Upside Breakouts
    A promising-looking rounded shape with an breakout above the moving average, instead of below, may not establish or maintain a new downtrend.

    Underlying Behavior

    A Rounded Top forms as investor sentiment shifts gradually from bullishness to bearishness. As the sentiment turns up toward the top, there is a drop off in trading volume due to the indecisiveness in the market. There is a period of consolidation at the top as trading bounces within a certain range, then finally there is a gradual downturn marking the shift to bearishness. As investors become more decisive about the bearishness, there is an increase in trading volume.

    圆形顶/圆形底 (Rounding Top / Rounding Bottom)

    圆形顶,即碟形顶(saucer top),属于转向形态,显示大跌市即将来临,后市跌势将会很大。

    顾名思义,圆形顶的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在顶部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形顶见顶形态 ,投资者宜尽快沽货离场,以免所持股份变成“蟹货”。

    圆形顶的形成,是股价经过一段升势后,升势开始放缓,每次新高位较上一个高位距离不远。由于升 势放缓,部分 先知先觉的投资者便撤退离场,令卖方力量增加。淡友先在圆形顶部与好友势力对抗,其后在好友数 目逐步减少下 ,淡友就得以渐渐控制局面。股价遂持续下滑,直至淡友全面控制局面后,市场需求转为供过于求, 跌势才会较急 。由于形成过程稍长,有时需数月始完成圆形顶。

    个别情况下,即使圆形顶形成,股价也不会实时急跌,仅会反复徘徊,横行发展,这徘徊区称为“碟 柄”或“碗柄 ” 。但由于跌势已成,该“碟柄”或“碗柄”一般很快便被突破,股价会转而向下,朝预期中的下跌趋 势而行。

    圆形底,又称碟形底(saucer bottom),属于见底形态,显示跌势已逆转,大升市即将来临,后市升势可以很大。其走势及趋向,与圆形 顶刚好相反。

    顾名思义,圆形底的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在底部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形底见底形态 ,投资者宜待圆形底升势转急初期,才追买股票。

    圆形底的形成过程如下:当股价经过一段跌势后,跌势开始放缓,沽售(或沽空)股票的成交量开始 减少。每次新 低位较上一个低位距离不远。由于跌势放缓,部分先知先觉者开始趁低吸纳,收集手法普遍是有耐性 地限价收集, 淡友力量因屡攻不下而开始减少,令圆形底部的成交量亦减少。其后好友数目逐步增加,渐控制局面 ,股价才能逐 步上扬。及好友完全控制局面,市场需求转为求过于供,升势方转急。由于形成过程稍久,往往需时 数月始完成圆 形底形态。

    个别情况下,即使圆形底形成,股价并不会实时急升,仅会反复横行徘徊,这徘徊区称为“碟柄”或 “碗柄”。但 当升势既成,这“碟柄”或“碗柄”很快会被突破,股价转而向上,朝预期的上升趋势而行。


    Capitaland - Rounding Top Upside Breakout; TP 4.21

    [​IMG]

    [video=youtube;7Lq0VYE4J34]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Lq0VYE4J34[/video]
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2012
  16. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Duke,

    Capitaland hit high of 3.50 and closed @ 3.49 (+0.09, +2.6%) with high vol. done at 22.242m shares on 7 Nov 2012. :001_cool:

    STI closed @ 3043.27 (+23.94, +0.79%) on 7 Nov 2012.
    [​IMG]

     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2012
  17. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Johnpaul,

    Karteks who shorted DBS earlier have to cover back their shorts, fast. Repeat your strategy on DBS, buy at support, sell on strength.

    Example: Oceanus

    The KRD was on 2 Nov 2012, i.e. the major kartek CK collected back his shares at rock bottom prices bet. 0.025 to 0.029 after selling bet. 0.51 to 0.54, in early-Oct 2012.

    The increase in exceptional vol. on 5 Nov 2012 was a massive short-covering. It's game over for Oceanus if the major CK RUN ROAD and never return.

    The stock market is the game of the mind, if we bet on the right side (up/down) of the game, we'll be the winner.
    (Although market sentiment is important but individual stock's direction is primarily controlled by the major CK.)

    [​IMG]

     
  18. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    DBS - Rounding Top (coupled with "DEAD CROSS") is a bearish major trend reversal pattern

    The major CK will whack DBS with exceptional high vol. once the nexkline @ 13.79 is broken convingingly (ref SembCorp, increase in vol. = 10X.).

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2012
  19. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    DBS - Rounding Top formation; crucial support at the neckline, 13.79

    [​IMG]

    圆形顶/圆形底 (Rounding Top / Rounding Bottom)

    圆形顶,即碟形顶(saucer top),属于转向形态,显示大跌市即将来临,后市跌势将会很大。

    顾名思义,圆形顶的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在顶部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆形顶见顶形态 ,投资者宜尽快沽货离场,以免所持股份变成“蟹货”。

    圆形顶的形成,是股价经过一段升势后,升势开始放缓,每次新高位较上一个高位距离不远。由于升势放缓,部分 先知先觉的投资者便撤退离场,令卖方力量增加。淡友先在圆形顶部与好友势力对抗,其后在好友数目逐步减少下 ,淡友就得以渐渐控制局面。股价遂持续下滑,直至淡友全面控制局面后,市场需求转为供过于求,跌势才会较急 。由于形成过程稍长,有时需数月始完成圆形顶。

    个别情况下,即使圆形顶形成,股价也不会实时急跌,仅会反复徘徊,横行发展,这徘徊区称为“碟柄”或“碗柄 ” 。但由于跌势已成,该“碟柄”或“碗柄”一般很快便被突破,股价会转而向下,朝预期中的下跌趋 势而行。

    圆形底,又称碟形底(saucer bottom),属于见底形态,显示跌势已逆转,大升市即将来临,后市升势可以很大。其走势及趋向,与圆形 顶刚好相反。

    顾名思义,圆形底的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在底部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆形底见底形态 ,投资者宜待圆形底升势转急初期,才追买股票。

    圆形底的形成过程如下:当股价经过一段跌势后,跌势开始放缓,沽售(或沽空)股票的成交量开始减少。每次新 低位较上一个低位距离不远。由于跌势放缓,部分先知先觉者开始趁低吸纳,收集手法普遍是有耐性地限价收集, 淡友力量因屡攻不下而开始减少,令圆形底部的成交量亦减少。其后好友数目逐步增加,渐控制局面,股价才能逐 步上扬。及好友完全控制局面,市场需求转为求过于供,升势方转急。由于形成过程稍久,往往需时数月始完成圆 形底形态。

    个别情况下,即使圆形底形成,股价并不会实时急升,仅会反复横行徘徊,这徘徊区称为“碟柄”或“碗柄”。但 当升势既成,这“碟柄”或“碗柄”很快会被突破,股价转而向上,朝预期的上升趋势而行。


    [video=youtube;7Lq0VYE4J34]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Lq0VYE4J34[/video]
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2012
  20. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    How To Locate And Trade An Extended Move

    Sometimes stocks will break out or break down in a very sharp and steep angle on the charts. These type of patterns are often referred to as a parabolic move when they surge to the upside. When these patterns occur to the downside they will often be referred to as a falling knife or waterfall decline. The actual name is irrelevant, however, understanding the chart pattern is very important. As a general rule, if you ever put a protractor up to your screen from any pivot low or pivot top and the angle is more than 60 degrees it is usually unsustainable. It does not matter if the stock or commodity is rallying or declining. The technique I will show you here will help to identify when the equity is running out of steam in either direction, and will need to retrace and consolidate some of its move.

    Step 1. Scan through stock charts and find a time when a stock was extremely extended from its 20 (SMA) simple moving average.

    Step 2. Determine the distance of where the stock was trading from the 20 moving average. Simply calculate the distance of the stock from the 20 MA and draw a vertical line to reflect it.

    Step 3. Take this distance and place the line on your chart. Follow the 20 SMA with the line; if at any point the stock price exceeds the length of the line from the 20 SMA, this will be your opportunity for a trade. Wait patiently, anytime price gets above or below the distance of the line, go long or short the stock. In this example, we are looking to enter a short position when price exceeds the distance of the line to the upside. ​

    Example:

    Take a look at the TLT chart below. On February 9, 2011 the TLT traded down to the $88.14 level. If you draw a straight line up to the 20 moving average from that $88.14 level you will see that the distance from that low pivot to the 20 moving average was $2.74. That is the distance that will be used for evaluating a future trade entry.

    On March 23, 2011 the TLT spiked sharply higher and became extended from the 20 moving average. If you simply copy the $2.74 measurement from the February 9, 2011 extended move and place that line on the 20 moving average of March 23, 2011 you see that it is extended and into resistance. This tells us that the TLT will likely pullback before moving higher. Therefore, if you own the TLT you can take profits on the trade or simply trail the stop loss. Traders that are aggressive and want to short the TLT can do so at the daily chart resistance from the last pivot high which was on December 21, 2010 at $94.70 a share.

    This technique can be applied to all time frames and used on all types of equities such as stocks, commodities, forex, and futures. Test it out a few times before adding it to your trading arsenal. By locating equities that are extended you will add more probability in favor of your trade succeeding. I am confident that once you start using this technique it will become one of your favorite methods for finding overbought and oversold equities.

    [​IMG]

    UOB - Extremely extended from its 20d SMA

    [​IMG]

    [video=youtube;91qYeRlu-RM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91qYeRlu-RM[/video]

    UOB - Bearish H&S Breakout; Interim TP 17.65

    UOB closed with a shooting star @ 18.25 (-0.06, -0.3%) on 6 Nov 2012.

    Immediate resistance 18.30, the 200d SMA; immediate support 18.00.

    [​IMG]

    UOB (weekly) - Uptrend broken; expect more downside

    [​IMG]
     
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