Chart Examples

Discussion in 'Acquistion Targets' started by zuolun, Dec 26, 2012.


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  1. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    CDLBear Flag Breakout; TP @ 9.85

    CDL closed with black marubozu @ 10.76 (-0.41, -3.7%) on 15 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 10.86, immediate support @ 10.60, next support @ 10.41.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  2. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    History repeats itself

    In technical analysis, history repeats itself. The theory behind chart patters is based on this assumption. The idea is that certain patterns are seen many times, and that these patterns signal a certain high probability move in a stock. Based on the historic trend of a chart pattern setting up a certain price movement, chartists look for these patterns to identify trading opportunities.

    SGX Mar 2013 chart Vs SGX Sep 2007 chart

    SGX (weekly)C&H formation

    [​IMG]

    SGXC&H breakout as at Sep 2007

    [​IMG]
    Cup with Handle (Continuation)

    The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. It was developed by William O'Neil and introduced in his 1988 book, How to Make Money in Stocks.

    As its name implies, there are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance.

    1. Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential.
    2. Cup: The cup should be "U" shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A "V" shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer "U" shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the "U". The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.
    3. Cup Depth: Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which conforms with Dow Theory.
    4. Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times it is just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.
    5. Duration: The cup can extend from 1 to 6 months, sometimes longer on weekly charts. The handle can be from 1 week to many weeks and ideally completes within 1-4 weeks.
    6. Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance.
    7. Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.
    [​IMG]
     
  3. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    [video=youtube;GTmnN4u4Y5k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTmnN4u4Y5k[/video]

    圆形顶/圆形底 (Rounding Top / Rounding Bottom)

    圆形顶,即碟形顶(saucer top),属于转向形态,显示大跌市即将来临,后市跌势将会很大。

    顾名思义,圆形顶的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在顶部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形顶见顶形态 ,投资者宜尽快沽货离场,以免所持股份变成“蟹货”。

    圆形顶的形成,是股价经过一段升势后,升势开始放缓,每次新高位较上一个高位距离不远。由于升 势放缓,部分 先知先觉的投资者便撤退离场,令卖方力量增加。淡友先在圆形顶部与好友势力对抗,其后在好友数 目逐步减少下 ,淡友就得以渐渐控制局面。股价遂持续下滑,直至淡友全面控制局面后,市场需求转为供过于求, 跌势才会较急 。由于形成过程稍长,有时需数月始完成圆形顶。

    个别情况下,即使圆形顶形成,股价也不会实时急跌,仅会反复徘徊,横行发展,这徘徊区称为“碟 柄”或“碗柄 ” 。但由于跌势已成,该“碟柄”或“碗柄”一般很快便被突破,股价会转而向下,朝预期中的下跌趋 势而行。

    圆形底,又称碟形底(saucer bottom),属于见底形态,显示跌势已逆转,大升市即将来临,后市升势可以很大。其走势及趋向,与圆形 顶刚好相反。

    顾名思义,圆形底的形态特征是倒转半圆形或碟形,成交量在底部形成后,开始逐步减少。凡确认圆 形底见底形态 ,投资者宜待圆形底升势转急初期,才追买股票。

    圆形底的形成过程如下:当股价经过一段跌势后,跌势开始放缓,沽售(或沽空)股票的成交量开始 减少。每次新 低位较上一个低位距离不远。由于跌势放缓,部分先知先觉者开始趁低吸纳,收集手法普遍是有耐性 地限价收集, 淡友力量因屡攻不下而开始减少,令圆形底部的成交量亦减少。其后好友数目逐步增加,渐控制局面 ,股价才能逐 步上扬。及好友完全控制局面,市场需求转为求过于供,升势方转急。由于形成过程稍久,往往需时 数月始完成圆 形底形态。

    个别情况下,即使圆形底形成,股价并不会实时急升,仅会反复横行徘徊,这徘徊区称为“碟柄”或 “碗柄”。但 当升势既成,这“碟柄”或“碗柄”很快会被突破,股价转而向上,朝预期的上升趋势而行。


    Chart Examples:
    1. CapitaComm: Rounded Top formation
    2. Capitaland: Rounded Top formation
    3. Wilmar: Rounded Bottom formation

    CapitaComm's chart as at 14 Mar 2013

    [​IMG]

    Capitaland as at 13 Mar 2013

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar (weekly) as at 25 Feb 2013

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2013
  4. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Direction is only 2: UP or DOWN

    看图测巿: 形态分析是一门艺术

    [video=youtube;cil6mWYEQL0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cil6mWYEQL0[/video]

    Technical Analysis: Chart Patterns

    A chart pattern is a distinct formation on a stock chart that creates a trading signal, or a sign of future price movements. Chartists use these patterns to identify current trends and trend reversals and to trigger buy and sell signals.

    In the first section of this tutorial, we talked about the three assumptions of technical analysis, the third of which was that in technical analysis, history repeats itself. The theory behind chart patters is based on this assumption. The idea is that certain patterns are seen many times, and that these patterns signal a certain high probability move in a stock. Based on the historic trend of a chart pattern setting up a certain price movement, chartists look for these patterns to identify trading opportunities.

    While there are general ideas and components to every chart pattern, there is no chart pattern that will tell you with 100% certainty where a security is headed. This creates some leeway and debate as to what a good pattern looks like, and is a major reason why charting is often seen as more of an art than a science.

    There are two types of patterns within this area of technical analysis, reversal and continuation. A reversal pattern signals that a prior trend will reverse upon completion of the pattern. A continuation pattern, on the other hand, signals that a trend will continue once the pattern is complete. These patterns can be found over charts of any timeframe. In this section, we will review some of the more popular chart patterns.

    Read more...
     
  5. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    GuocoLeisureTrading in an upward sloping channel

    GuocoLeisure closed with a bearish dark cloud cover pattern @ 0.755 (-0.005, -0.7%) on 14 Mar 2013.

    Immediate support 0.745, immediate resistance 0.775.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  6. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    SGX (weekly)C&H formation

    [​IMG]

     
  7. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    CapitaComm — Bearish rounded top (inverted saucer) formation; expect more downside than upside.
    (Ref. below Capitaland's rounded top formation).
    [​IMG]

    Wait for a decisive signal (preferably a long black marubozu) to SHORT, instead of LONG.

    [​IMG]

    How to Shortsell, Trade Example

    [video=youtube;FFwkfsyc5tU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFwkfsyc5tU[/video]

    CapitalandRounding Top formation

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2013
  8. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    How to Shortsell, Trade Example

    [video=youtube;FFwkfsyc5tU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFwkfsyc5tU[/video]
     
  9. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    The gameplay is always: Buy at low sell at high or Short at high cover at low

    EXAMPLE:

    On 25 Feb 2013, Wilmar broke the H&S neckline closing @ 3.54.

    Wilmar's trading strategy — Short

    Trade size 50 lots, every trade target profit @ 0.05; continue shorting at lower highs (rebound) when all support levels are taken out convincingly.

    Price Levels to cover short:
    1. S$3.45
    2. S$3.40
    3. S$3.35
    4. S$3.30

    WilmarH&S Breakout; TP 3.27

    Wilmar closed with a black marubozu @ 3.30 (-0.13, -3.8%) on 11 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.40 immediate support 3.30, strong support @ 3.27.

    [​IMG]

    [Trading Central] Wilmar International: turning down.

    04 Mar 2013 18:42

    Update on supports and resistances.

    Short Term View

    (Rise, Limited Rise, Consolidation, Limited Decline, Decline) Limited Decline

    Change In Short Term View None

    Medium Term View

    (Bullish, Range, Bearish) Range

    Change In Medium Term View None​

    Pivot: 3.75

    Our preference: Short positions below 3.75 with targets @ 3.2 & 3 in extension.

    Alternative scenario: Above 3.75 look for further upside with 3.9 & 4.1 as targets.

    Comment: the RSI broke below a rising trend line.

    Key levels
    4.1
    3.9
    3.75
    3.42 last
    3.2
    3
    2.9

    Copyright 1999 - 2013 TRADING CENTRAL

    [​IMG]

    [video=youtube;2xA6glNZYYg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xA6glNZYYg[/video]

    如何警覺哪些股票主力正在拉高出貨?

    量价分析:量增价跌

    1. 是价量背离的讯号,后市以偏空为主,但仍待确认。
    2. 在跌势末期时,量增代表低档买盘进入转趋积极,距离指数低档应不远。
    3. 在涨势初期或低档盘整阶段,可能是多头力道正在酝酿,若配合期指未平仓量的增加,未来行情上涨机会甚大。
    4. 在涨势末期则为多头获利了结心态浓厚,未来反转下跌可能性大增。
    5. 若盘势处于跌势初期则未来盘势会持续下跌。
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2013
  10. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Train your eyes to earn your profits!

    Chart pattern recognition and many examples all in one chart

    [video=youtube;2FnEGipMUNE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FnEGipMUNE[/video]
     
  11. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Stocks that exhibit certain chart patterns (Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base) can lead to strong price appreciation when they breakout on strong volume.

    TianjinZ Bull Flag Breakout

    [​IMG]

     
  12. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    THBEVBull Flag Breakout

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    On Balance Volume (OBV)

    [video=youtube;jtrDUiYG4wE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtrDUiYG4wE[/video]
     
  13. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    WilmarH&S Breakout; TP 3.27

    Wilmar closed with an inverted hammer @ 3.43 (-0.04, -1.2%) on 8 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.57, immediate support @ 3.40, strong support @ 3.27.

    [​IMG]

    [video=youtube;2xA6glNZYYg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xA6glNZYYg[/video]

    如何警覺哪些股票主力正在拉高出貨?

    量价分析:量增价跌

    1. 是价量背离的讯号,后市以偏空为主,但仍待确认。
    2. 在跌势末期时,量增代表低档买盘进入转趋积极,距离指数低档应不远。
    3. 在涨势初期或低档盘整阶段,可能是多头力道正在酝酿,若配合期指未平仓量的增加,未来行情上涨机会甚大。
    4. 在涨势末期则为多头获利了结心态浓厚,未来反转下跌可能性大增。
    5. 若盘势处于跌势初期则未来盘势会持续下跌。
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2013
  14. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    The Matthew effect (强者越强,弱者愈弱)

    In any sector, the fittest survives; long/buy the strongest stock, short/sell the weakest stock.

    Example of 3 weak stocks (long-term downtrend); TigerAir, ChinaFish and Wilmar:

    TigerAirDouble Top formation

    TigerAir closed with a black marubozu 0.69 (-0.025, -3.5%) on 5 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance 0.735, crucial support 0.685.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    ChinaFishH&S Breakout

    ChinaFish closed unchanged with a dragonfly doji @ 0.575 on 5 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 0.59, immediate support @ 0.555, next support 0.535.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    WilmarH&S Breakout; TP 3.27

    Wilmar closed with a bullish harami @ 3.46 (+0.04, +1.2%) on 5 Mar 2013.

    Immediate resistance @ 3.57, immediate support @ 3.46, next support 3.40, strong support @ 3.27.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Wilmar International — 2006 to 9 Nov 2012

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2013
  15. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    發發發,

    The best guide for CDL is still the neckline @ 10.86.

    Positive scenario — Lookout for a long white marubozu (preferably with high vol.) followed by confirmation (at least 2 candles), i.e. once price shoots above 11.38, the 200d SMA, it''s a BUY confirmation. (Refer to KepCorp's chart in mid-Nov 2012, using the neckline at 10.10 & 200d SMA as a guide to buy for a rebound).

    Negative scenario — If the neckline at 10.86 is broken convincingly with high vol. it's a SELL confirmation.

    Examples of H&S Breakout:
    1. Wilmar
    2. ChinaFish

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  16. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    Stock Market Trading Newsletter 20130301

    [video=youtube;tPEDt9p6Ywk]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPEDt9p6Ywk[/video]
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2013
  17. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    CDL — The formation of the head in Dec 2012 could be a 'Bull Trap' set-up.

     
  18. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    The H&S breakout pattern normally falls steeply with exceptionally high volume, e.g. ChinaFish — prior to the rights issue announcement, its chart pattern gave some early signals showing a H&S formation.

    Alternative view on CDLH&S formation

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  19. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    [video=youtube;vWh9HPhbJT8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWh9HPhbJT8[/video]
     
  20. zuolun

    zuolun Well-Known Member

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    [video=youtube;ZML2yalve4k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZML2yalve4k[/video]
     
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